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Brazil: Piauiense U20 - Playoff
Brazil: Piauiense U20 - Playoff
27.07.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction
27.07.2026 17:00 UTC
Finished

Brazil: Piauiense U20 - Playoff

Comercial Piaui U20 - River Atletico Piaui U20

Football
C
Comercial Piaui U20
1 : 1
Finished
R
River Atletico Piaui U20
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Comercial Piaui U20 — 62%

Pure model vs market (1 · Comercial Piaui U20): model 62% · market 16% Δ +46 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Comercial Piaui U20 ✓ Pick62.1%
market16%
X · draw21.7%
market73%
2 · River Atletico Piaui U2016.2%
market11%

Model estimate: win Comercial Piaui U20 62.1%, draw 21.7%, win River Atletico Piaui U20 16.2%. Model favourite — Comercial Piaui U20.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Comercial Piaui U20 - River Atletico Piaui U20 July 27, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like draw.

Line favourite Fonbet: draw. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 5.50 / X 1.23 / 2 8.50
  • Glicko: Comercial Piaui U20 62.1% / X 21.7% / River Atletico Piaui U20 16.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 11.2%
1 ✓ Pick 16.3%
X 73.1%
2 10.6%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Comercial Piaui U20 4 : 1 River Atletico Piaui U20
11.48
X4.00
25.71

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 27.07.2026 17:00 UTC
Match center

Comercial Piaui U20 - River Atletico Piaui U20

Form 2/4 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 62.1% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.025 / LogLoss 1.528
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 62.1% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.025 / LogLoss 1.528
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Comercial Piaui U20 62.1% 62.1% market and model agree
Draw 21.9% 21.7% draw risk
River Atletico Piaui U20 16.0% 16.2%
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 62.1% / 21.7% / 16.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,866 / 1,480 Comercial Piaui U20 / River Atletico Piaui U20
RD 239 / 200 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,389-2,344 / 1,080-1,880 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 8.50 Fonbet · no value · model 16.2%
X 1.23 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 5.50 Fonbet · weak value +241.7% · model 62.1%
Double chance
12 3.30 Fonbet · weak value +158.4% · model 78.3%
1X 1.04 Fonbet · no value · model 83.8%
X2 1.10 Fonbet · no value · model 37.9%
Handicap
2 +1 1.88 market consensus · line only
2 0 2.30 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 1.81 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.55 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 7.10 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.06 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.99 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.73 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.99 50.3%
yes 1.73 57.8%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Fonbet
12 1.16 86.2% 3.30 30.3%
1x 1.10 90.9% 1.04 96.2%
x2 2.30 43.5% 1.10 90.9%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
1.99 50.3%
X 2.32 43.1%
5.70 17.5%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.62 61.7%
Under 1 2.16 46.3%
Match center
Comercial Piaui U20
W W
15.07 17:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Piauiense U20 Standings
Comercial Piaui U20 3:1 Ferroviario-PI U20
05.07 17:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Piauiense U20 Standings
Comercial Piaui U20 3:0 Parnakhiba U20
2 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
3.0 Scored
0.5 Conceded
6 Points
River Atletico Piaui U20
D L D W
18.07 17:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Piauiense U20 Standings
River Atletico Piaui U20 1:1 Tiradentis PI U20
13.07 19:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Piauiense U20 Standings
River Atletico Piaui U20 0:3 Fluminense Piaui U20
07.07 17:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Piauiense U20 Standings
River Atletico Piaui U20 0:0 Atletico-PI U20
30.06 19:00 UTC+0 Brazil: Piauiense U20 Standings
River Atletico Piaui U20 3:1 AE Altos U20
1 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.3 Conceded
5 Points