Brazil: Piauiense U20 - Playoff
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Fluminense Piaui U20 — 63%
Pure model vs market (1 · Fluminense Piaui U20): model 59% · market 61% Δ −2 pp model estimate matches the market
Model estimate: win Fluminense Piaui U20 63.4%, draw 20.8%, win River Atletico Piaui U20 15.7%. Model favourite — Fluminense Piaui U20.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Fluminense Piaui U20.
For reference
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.83 54.6% | 1.89 52.9% |
| yes | 1.87 53.5% | 1.81 55.3% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.16 86.2% | 1.58 63.3% |
| 1x | 1.10 90.9% | 1.09 91.7% |
| x2 | 2.45 40.8% | 6.20 16.1% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.90 52.6% | |
| X | 2.34 42.7% |
| 6.30 15.9% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.62 61.7% |
| Over 1.5 | 2.24 44.6% |
| Under 1 | 2.16 46.3% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.58 63.3% |
Full head-to-head historyFluminense Piaui U20 - River Atletico Piaui U20
The Fluminense Piaui U20 - River Atletico Piaui U20 breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
