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Bundesliga Germany

14.02.2026 14:30 UTC Match prediction

14.02.2026 14:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen - FC St. Pauli

Germany Football

Bayer Leverkusen

4 : 0

Finished

FC St. Pauli

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bayer Leverkusen - FC St. Pauli February 14, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayer Leverkusen.

Line favourite market consensus: Bayer Leverkusen. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.52 / X 4.24 / 2 6.29
1X2 market: Bayer Leverkusen 62.4% / X 22.4% / FC St. Pauli 15.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 52.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%

1 62.5%

X 22.4%

2 15.1%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%

Over 2.5 52.2%

Under 2.5 47.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 14.02.2026 14:30 UTC

Match center

Bayer Leverkusen - FC St. Pauli

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 6.29 market consensus · line only

X 4.26 market consensus · line only

1 1.52 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 2.54 market consensus · line only

12 1.22 market consensus · line only

1X 1.13 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.56 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.95 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 5.70 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.51 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.83 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.00 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.84 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.92 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.53 65.4%
X	4.44 22.5%
	6.41 15.6%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	1.51 66.2%	1.55 64.5%	1.58 63.3%	1.50 66.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.57 63.7%
X	4.10 24.4%	4.30 23.3%	4.40 22.7%	4.00 25.0%	4.33 23.1%	4.25 23.5%
	6.00 16.7%	6.20 16.1%	6.50 15.4%	6.00 16.7%	5.75 17.4%	6.60 15.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	1.83 54.6%	1.86 53.8%	1.84 54.4%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.83 54.6%	1.82 55.0%	1.91 52.4%
yes	1.91 52.4%	1.95 51.3%	1.88 53.2%	1.91 52.4%	1.95 51.3%	1.90 52.6%	1.91 52.4%	1.88 53.2%	1.95 51.3%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	2.50 40.0%	2.56 39.1%	2.50 40.0%	2.38 42.0%	2.52 39.7%	2.60 38.5%
home_away	1.18 84.8%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.20 83.3%	1.23 81.3%	1.17 85.5%
home_draw	1.11 90.1%	1.14 87.7%	1.13 88.5%	1.14 87.7%	1.14 87.7%	1.08 92.6%

Match center

Bayer Leverkusen

D W W L L

07.02 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 1:1 Borussia Mönchengladbach

31.01 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 3:1 Eintracht Frankfurt

24.01 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 1:0 Werder Bremen

17.01 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 0:1 1899 Hoffenheim

10.01 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 1:4 VfB Stuttgart

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.2 Scored

1.4 Conceded

7 Points

FC St. Pauli

W L D D L

07.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 2:1 VfB Stuttgart

31.01 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 1:2 FC Augsburg

27.01 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 1:1 RB Leipzig

23.01 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 0:0 Hamburger SV

17.01 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 2:3 Borussia Dortmund

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

1.2 Scored

1.4 Conceded

5 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyBayer Leverkusen - FC St. Pauli

Bayer Leverkusen

2 matches total

FC St. Pauli

Bayer Leverkusen: 1 (50%)

Draws:1 (50%)

FC St. Pauli: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Bayer Leverkusen 2:1 (27.09 13:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (2:1, 27.09 13:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (20.04 17:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 3

Match history

27.09 13:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen

2:1

FC St. Pauli

20.04 17:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen

1:1

FC St. Pauli