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Bundesliga Germany

04.10.2025 13:30 UTC Match prediction

04.10.2025 13:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin

Germany Football

Bayer Leverkusen

2 : 0

Finished

Union Berlin

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin October 4, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayer Leverkusen.

Line favourite market consensus: Bayer Leverkusen. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.70 / X 3.96 / 2 4.90
1X2 market: Bayer Leverkusen 56.3% / X 24.2% / Union Berlin 19.5%
Total 2.5: over probability 52.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.5%

1 56.3%

X 24.2%

2 19.5%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.2%

Over 2.5 52.7%

Under 2.5 47.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 04.10.2025 13:30 UTC

Match center

Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 4.91 market consensus · line only

X 3.96 market consensus · line only

1 1.70 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 2.19 market consensus · line only

12 1.25 market consensus · line only

1X 1.19 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.21 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.69 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 4.45 market consensus · line only

2 +1 9.95 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.82 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.03 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.98 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.78 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.71 58.5%
X	4.03 24.8%
	5.00 20.0%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	1.68 59.5%	1.68 59.5%	1.73 57.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.70 58.8%	1.72 58.1%
X	3.90 25.6%	4.10 24.4%	4.14 24.2%	3.80 26.3%	4.00 25.0%	4.00 25.0%
	4.75 21.1%	4.90 20.4%	5.15 19.4%	4.80 20.8%	4.75 21.1%	5.20 19.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	1.95 51.3%	1.99 50.3%	1.96 51.0%	2.00 50.0%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	2.00 50.0%	1.94 51.6%	2.08 48.1%
yes	1.77 56.5%	1.83 54.6%	1.77 56.5%	1.75 57.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.77 56.5%	1.81 55.3%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Marathonbet
draw_away	2.10 47.6%	2.24 44.6%	2.20 45.5%	2.10 47.6%	2.22 45.1%	2.26 44.3%
home_away	1.20 83.3%	1.28 78.1%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.27 78.7%
home_draw	1.18 84.8%	1.20 83.3%	1.18 84.8%	1.18 84.8%	1.19 84.0%	1.20 83.3%

Match center

Bayer Leverkusen

W D W D L

27.09 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 2:1 FC St. Pauli

21.09 15:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 1:1 Borussia Mönchengladbach

12.09 18:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 3:1 Eintracht Frankfurt

30.08 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 3:3 Werder Bremen

23.08 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 1:2 1899 Hoffenheim

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

2.0 Scored

1.6 Conceded

8 Points

Union Berlin

D W L L W

28.09 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 0:0 Hamburger SV

21.09 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 4:3 Eintracht Frankfurt

13.09 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 2:4 1899 Hoffenheim

31.08 15:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 0:3 Borussia Dortmund

23.08 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 2:1 VfB Stuttgart

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.6 Scored

2.2 Conceded

7 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyBayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin

Bayer Leverkusen

1 matches total

Union Berlin

Bayer Leverkusen: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (100%)

Union Berlin: 0 (0%)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (12.04 13:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

12.04 13:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen

0:0

Union Berlin