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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
13.09.2025 16:30 UTC Match prediction
13.09.2025 16:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

Bayern München - Hamburger SV

Germany Football
Bayern München
Bayern München
5 : 0
Finished
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bayern München - Hamburger SV September 13, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayern München.

Line favourite market consensus: Bayern München. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.07 / X 13.65 / 2 25.50
  • 1X2 market: Bayern München 89.1% / X 7.1% / Hamburger SV 3.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 81.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.7%
1 89.3%
X 7.0%
2 3.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.7%
Over 2.5 81.5%
Under 2.5 18.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 13.09.2025 16:30 UTC
Match center

Bayern München - Hamburger SV

Form 5/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
1 1.07 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 8.81 market consensus · line only
12 1.04 market consensus · line only
1X 1.01 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 8.00 market consensus · line only
2 -1 6.45 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.07 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.09 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.15 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 5.07 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.82 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.93 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.06 94.3%
X 12.00 8.3%
23.00 4.4%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.07 93.5% 1.07 93.5% 1.08 92.6% 1.06 94.3% 1.06 94.3% 1.10 90.9%
X 12.50 8.0% 15.00 6.7% 15.50 6.5% 13.00 7.7% 12.00 8.3% 13.00 7.7%
22.00 4.6% 21.00 4.8% 33.00 3.0% 26.00 3.9% 23.00 4.4% 27.00 3.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Dafabet Marathonbet
no 1.85 54.1% 1.90 52.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.83 54.6% 1.65 60.6% 1.81 55.3%
yes 1.85 54.1% 1.89 52.9% 1.87 53.5% 1.85 54.1% 1.95 51.3% 1.88 53.2% 1.91 52.4% 2.25 44.4% 1.89 52.9%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Dafabet
draw_away 8.00 12.5% 9.70 10.3% 9.00 11.1% 10.00 10.0% 8.25 12.1% 6.00 16.7%
home_away 1.03 97.1% 1.04 96.2% 1.04 96.2% 1.05 95.2% 1.04 96.2% 1.03 97.1%
home_draw 1.01 99.0% 1.01 99.0% 1.01 99.0% 1.01 99.0% 1.02 98.0% 1.01 99.0%
Match center
Bayern München
W W W W D
30.08 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 3:2 FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
22.08 18:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 6:0 RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
17.05 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 4:0 1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
10.05 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 2:0 Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
03.05 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 3:3 RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
3.6 Scored
1.0 Conceded
13 Points
Hamburger SV
L D
29.08 18:30 UTC Bundesliga
Hamburger SV 0:2 FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli
24.08 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
Hamburger SV 0:0 Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
0 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
0.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
1 Points