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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
21.09.2025 17:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

Borussia Dortmund - VfL Wolfsburg

Germany Football
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
1 : 0
Finished
VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg

Borussia Dortmund face VfL Wolfsburg on September 21, 2025 in the Bundesliga, Germany.

Recent form (W-D-L): Borussia Dortmund 4-1-0, VfL Wolfsburg 2-3-0. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Sportsbooks lean towards Borussia Dortmund, an implied 61% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Borussia Dortmund - VfL Wolfsburg September 21, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Borussia Dortmund.

Line favourite market consensus: Borussia Dortmund. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.57 / X 4.59 / 2 5.12
  • 1X2 market: Borussia Dortmund 60.7% / X 20.7% / VfL Wolfsburg 18.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 65.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.4% 13 books · best price +3.2%
1 60.8%
X 20.8%
2 18.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.2%
Over 2.5 65.4%
Under 2.5 34.6%

Odds source: consensus of 13 books (10Bet, 188Bet, 1xBet, 888Sport, Betano, Betfair). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 21.09.2025 17:30 UTC
Market 1 60.7% @ 1.57 / X 20.7% @ 4.59 / 2 18.6% @ 5.12
Match center

Borussia Dortmund - VfL Wolfsburg

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.13 market consensus · line only
X 4.59 market consensus · line only
1 1.57 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.43 market consensus · line only
12 1.20 market consensus · line only
1X 1.18 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.47 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.93 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.65 market consensus · line only
2 +1 9.80 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.44 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.72 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.43 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.53 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.59 62.9%
X 4.66 21.5%
5.27 19.0%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Betano Betfair
1.56 64.1% 1.57 63.7% 1.61 62.1% 1.53 65.4% 1.60 62.5% 1.53 65.4%
X 4.50 22.2% 4.65 21.5% 4.82 20.8% 4.40 22.7% 4.70 21.3% 4.50 22.2%
5.10 19.6% 5.20 19.2% 5.37 18.6% 4.80 20.8% 5.30 18.9% 5.00 20.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle Superbet
no 2.40 41.7% 2.54 39.4% 2.42 41.3% 2.40 41.7% 2.40 41.7% 2.50 40.0% 2.39 41.8% 2.55 39.2% 2.42 41.3%
yes 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.51 66.2% 1.53 65.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.51 66.2% 1.56 64.1% 1.55 64.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Betano Marathonbet Pinnacle
draw_away 2.35 42.6% 2.48 40.3% 2.40 41.7% 2.42 41.3% 2.51 39.8% 2.49 40.2%
home_away 1.15 87.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.20 83.3% 1.21 82.6% 1.23 81.3%
home_draw 1.17 85.5% 1.19 84.0% 1.17 85.5% 1.19 84.0% 1.17 85.5% 1.19 84.0%
Match center
Borussia Dortmund
W W D W W
13.09 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 2:0 1. FC Heidenheim1. FC Heidenheim
31.08 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 3:0 Union BerlinUnion Berlin
23.08 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 3:3 FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli
17.05 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 3:0 Holstein KielHolstein Kiel
11.05 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 4:2 Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
3.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
13 Points
VfL Wolfsburg
D D W W D
13.09 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg 3:3 1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
31.08 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg 1:1 MayntsMaynts
23.08 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg 3:1 1. FC Heidenheim1. FC Heidenheim
17.05 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg 1:0 Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
09.05 18:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg 2:2 1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
1.4 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyBorussia Dortmund - VfL Wolfsburg

Borussia Dortmund
1 matches total
VfL Wolfsburg
Borussia Dortmund: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
VfL Wolfsburg: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Borussia Dortmund 4:0 (03.05 16:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (4:0, 03.05 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

4 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 4

Match history

03.05 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund
4:0
VfL Wolfsburg