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Bundesliga Germany

03.05.2026 15:30 UTC Match prediction

03.05.2026 15:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

Borussia Monchengladbach - Borussia Dortmund

Germany Football

Stadium Borussiya Park

Borussia Monchengladbach

1 : 0

Finished

Borussia Dortmund

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Borussia Dortmund — 54%

1 · Borussia Monchengladbach22.0%

X · draw23.9%

2 · Borussia Dortmund54.1%

Model estimate: win Borussia Monchengladbach 22.0%, draw 23.9%, win Borussia Dortmund 54.1%. Model favourite — Borussia Dortmund.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Borussia Monchengladbach - Borussia Dortmund May 3, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Borussia Dortmund.

Strongest: Borussia Dortmund - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.74 / X 3.82 / 2 1.90
1X2 market: Borussia Monchengladbach 25.4% / X 24.8% / Borussia Dortmund 49.8%
Glicko: Borussia Monchengladbach 22.0% / X 23.9% / Borussia Dortmund 54.1%
Total 2.5: over probability 32.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.5%

1 25.3%

X 24.8%

2 49.9%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.0%

Over 2.5 60.9%

Under 2.5 39.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome

Agreement 4/5

Confidence 51.7%

Total Under 2.5

Score 0:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 03.05.2026 15:30 UTC

Stadium Borussiya Park (Menkhengladbakh)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Borussia Dortmund 54%

💹 Market Borussia Dortmund 4979%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Borussia Monchengladbach - Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Mönchengladbach: Win 3.75 Borussia Mönchengladbach: Draw 3.80 Borussia Dortmund Win: 1.91 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.57 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.38 Individualnyy total golov Borussia Mönchengladbach bolshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Borussi…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:0

Events 15

Statistics 24

Lineups 39

min Event Player Team

54' 54' Yellow Card | Kevin Stöger K. Stöger Borussia Mönchengladbach

56' 56' Yellow Card | N. Schlotterbeck Nico Schlotterbeck Borussia Dortmund

61' 61' Substitution 1 | Maximilian Beier | assist/sub out: Daniel Svensson Maximilian Beier Borussia Dortmund

66' 66' Substitution 1 | Wael Mohya | assist/sub out: Hugo Bolin Wael Mohya Borussia Mönchengladbach

70' 70' Substitution 2 | Fabio Chiarodia | assist/sub out: K. Diks F. Chiarodia Borussia Mönchengladbach

70' 70' Substitution 3 | Kevin Stöger | assist/sub out: G. Reyna K. Stöger Borussia Mönchengladbach

76' 76' Substitution 2 | S. Guirassy | assist/sub out: Fábio Silva S. Guirassy Borussia Dortmund

76' 76' Substitution 3 | Jobe Bellingham | assist/sub out: S. Özcan J. Bellingham Borussia Dortmund

Metric Borussia Monchengladbach Borussia Dortmund SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.2 0.49 final

Zablokirovannye udary 3 0 final

Shots off target 5 5 final

Shots on target 4 1 final

Udary vsego 12 6 final

Fouls soversheno 14 17 final

Zheltye kartochki 3 1 final

Offsides 1 0 final

Borussia Monchengladbach #15 H. Tabaković, #29 J. Scally, #33 M. Nicolas, #36 Wael Mohya, #2 F. Chiarodia, #7 K. Stöger, #6 Y. Engelhardt, #30 N. Elvedi, #16 P. Sander, #27 R. Reitz, #9 F. Honorat

Borussia Dortmund #1 G. Kobel, #4 Nico Schlotterbeck, #9 S. Guirassy, #14 Maximilian Beier, #40 Samuele Inacio, #3 Waldemar Anton, #7 J. Bellingham, #10 J. Brandt, #20 Marcel Sabitzer, #49 Luca Reggiani, #26 Julian Ryerson

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Meyer Borussia Dortmund Seyvy 0

Carney Chukwuemeka Borussia Dortmund Dribling popytki 1

Carney Chukwuemeka Borussia Dortmund Edinoborstva vyigrano 1

Carney Chukwuemeka Borussia Dortmund Fouls soversheno 1

Carney Chukwuemeka Borussia Dortmund Seyvy 0

Carney Chukwuemeka Borussia Dortmund football.player.minutes_played 11

Carney Chukwuemeka Borussia Dortmund Klyuchevye pasy 4

Carney Chukwuemeka Borussia Dortmund Reyting (staryy) 6.3

Carney Chukwuemeka Borussia Dortmund Otbory vsego 4

Daniel Svensson Borussia Dortmund Dribling popytki 1

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Borussia Monchengladbach 25.6% 22.0%

Draw 25.0% 23.9% draw risk

Borussia Dortmund 49.4% 54.1% market and model agree

xG - 1.00 : 1.71

Total 2.5 Over 32.8% - Under 67.2%

Model check - - Difference 0.05

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 22.0% / 23.9% / 54.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,447 / 1,681 Borussia Monchengladbach / Borussia Dortmund

RD 74 / 77 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.90 market consensus · weak value +2.9% · model 54.1%

X 3.82 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 3.74 market consensus · no value · model 22.0%

Double chance

X2 1.27 market consensus · no value · model 78.0%

12 1.25 market consensus · no value · model 76.1%

1X 1.90 market consensus · no value · model 45.9%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.27 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.08 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 1.87 market consensus · line only

2 +1 2.58 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.55 market consensus · no value · model 32.8%

Under 2.5 2.41 market consensus · weak value +62.0% · model 67.2%

Both teams to score

No 2.49 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.49 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	3.65 27.4%	3.88 25.8%	3.60 27.8%	3.70 27.0%	4.00 25.0%	3.75 26.7%
X	3.65 27.4%	4.03 24.8%	3.60 27.8%	3.80 26.3%	3.90 25.6%	3.75 26.7%
	1.92 52.1%	1.96 51.0%	1.85 54.1%	1.91 52.4%	1.93 51.8%	1.90 52.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.50 40.0%	2.48 40.3%	2.50 40.0%	2.50 40.0%	2.50 40.0%	2.50 40.0%	2.45 40.8%	2.44 41.0%	2.48 40.3%
yes	1.50 66.7%	1.49 67.1%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.47 68.0%	1.49 67.1%	1.49 67.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.28 78.1%	1.30 76.9%	1.25 80.0%	1.28 78.1%	1.28 78.1%	1.22 82.0%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.29 77.5%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.26 79.4%	1.20 83.3%
home_draw	1.85 54.1%	1.94 51.6%	1.91 52.4%	1.83 54.6%	1.95 51.3%	1.91 52.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.03 97.1%	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25	—	1.07 93.5%
Over 1.5	1.18 84.8%	1.12 89.3%
Over 1.75	—	1.16 86.2%
Over 2.0	—	1.20 83.3%
Over 2.5	1.55 64.5%	—
Over 3.5	2.35 42.6%	—
Over 4.5	4.20 23.8%	—
Over 5.5	7.50 13.3%	—
Under 0.5	11.00 9.1%	—
Under 1.5	4.75 21.1%	—
Under 2.5	2.40 41.7%	—
Under 3.5	1.57 63.7%	—
Under 4.5	1.22 82.0%	—
Under 5.5	1.08 92.6%	—

Match center

Borussia Monchengladbach

Founded 1900

Borussia Dortmund

Founded 1909

Match center

Borussia Monchengladbach

TK T. Kleindienst Knee Injury

JC J. Castrop Red Card

Borussia Dortmund

NS N. Süle Injury

FN F. Nmecha Knee Injury

Borussia Monchengladbach Founded: 1900

Borussia Dortmund Founded: 1909

Match center

Borussia Monchengladbach

D D L D D

25.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Monchengladbach 0:0 VfL Wolfsburg

19.04 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Monchengladbach 1:1 Maynts

11.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Monchengladbach 0:1 RB Leipzig

04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Monchengladbach 2:2 1. FC Heidenheim

21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Monchengladbach 3:3 1. FC Köln

0 Wins

4 Draws

1 Losses

1.2 Scored

1.4 Conceded

4 Points

Borussia Dortmund

W L L W W

26.04 15:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 4:0 Frayburg

18.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 1:2 1899 Hoffenheim

11.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 0:1 Bayer Leverkusen

04.04 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 2:0 VfB Stuttgart

21.03 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 3:2 Hamburger SV

3 Wins

0 Draws

2 Losses

2.0 Scored

1.0 Conceded

9 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyBorussia Monchengladbach - Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Monchengladbach

2 matches total

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Monchengladbach: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Borussia Dortmund: 2 (100%)

Biggest win Borussia Dortmund 0:2 (19.12 19:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 5 goals (2:3, 20.04 15:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

19.12 19:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Borussia Mönchengladbach

0:2

Borussia Dortmund

20.04 15:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Borussia Mönchengladbach

2:3

Borussia Dortmund

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.