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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
20.04.2025 17:30 UTC Match prediction
20.04.2025 17:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

FC St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen

Germany Football
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
1 : 1
Finished
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FC St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen April 20, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayer Leverkusen.

Line favourite market consensus: Bayer Leverkusen. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.94 / X 3.98 / 2 1.74
  • 1X2 market: FC St. Pauli 19.7% / X 24.4% / Bayer Leverkusen 55.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 51.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 2.8%
1 19.7%
X 24.4%
2 55.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 2.4%
Over 2.5 51.2%
Under 2.5 48.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 20.04.2025 17:30 UTC
Match center

FC St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.74 market consensus · line only
X 3.98 market consensus · line only
1 4.94 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.21 market consensus · line only
12 1.29 market consensus · line only
1X 2.21 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.91 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.00 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
4.94 20.2%
X 3.98 25.1%
1.74 57.5%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 1.21 82.6%
home_away 1.29 77.5%
home_draw 2.21 45.3%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
Over 2.5 1.91 52.4%
Under 2.5 2.00 50.0%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.73 26.8%
1.30 76.9%
Match center
FC St. Pauli
W D D L L
12.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli 2:1 Holstein KielHolstein Kiel
06.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli 1:1 Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
26.10 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli 0:0 VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
18.10 18:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli 1:2 Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
05.10 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli 0:3 MayntsMaynts
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.4 Conceded
5 Points
Bayer Leverkusen
D W D W D
12.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 0:0 Union BerlinUnion Berlin
05.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 1:0 1. FC Heidenheim1. FC Heidenheim
26.10 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 2:2 Werder BremenWerder Bremen
19.10 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 2:1 Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
05.10 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 2:2 Holstein KielHolstein Kiel
2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.0 Conceded
9 Points