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Bundesliga Germany

27.09.2025 13:30 UTC Match prediction

27.09.2025 13:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen

Germany Football

FC St. Pauli

1 : 2

Finished

Bayer Leverkusen

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FC St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen September 27, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayer Leverkusen.

Line favourite market consensus: Bayer Leverkusen. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.26 / X 3.45 / 2 2.20
1X2 market: FC St. Pauli 29.2% / X 27.6% / Bayer Leverkusen 43.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 50.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%

1 29.2%

X 27.6%

2 43.2%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.2%

Over 2.5 50.3%

Under 2.5 49.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 27.09.2025 13:30 UTC

Match center

FC St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.20 market consensus · line only

X 3.46 market consensus · line only

1 3.27 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.35 market consensus · line only

12 1.30 market consensus · line only

1X 1.69 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.36 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.10 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.19 market consensus · line only

2 +1 3.31 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.91 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.93 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.09 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.70 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	3.38 29.6%
X	3.60 27.8%
	2.20 45.5%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	3.15 31.8%	3.35 29.9%	3.44 29.1%	3.20 31.3%	3.25 30.8%	3.25 30.8%
X	3.40 29.4%	3.55 28.2%	3.58 27.9%	3.40 29.4%	3.50 28.6%	3.40 29.4%
	2.22 45.1%	2.16 46.3%	2.24 44.6%	2.15 46.5%	2.15 46.5%	2.25 44.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	2.05 48.8%	2.16 46.3%	2.07 48.3%	2.10 47.6%	2.00 50.0%	2.07 48.3%	2.15 46.5%	2.04 49.0%	2.20 45.5%
yes	1.70 58.8%	1.71 58.5%	1.69 59.2%	1.67 59.9%	1.75 57.1%	1.70 58.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.69 59.2%	1.72 58.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Marathonbet
draw_away	1.35 74.1%	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.37 73.0%	1.35 74.1%
home_away	1.25 80.0%	1.34 74.6%	1.30 76.9%	1.28 78.1%	1.31 76.3%	1.33 75.2%
home_draw	1.65 60.6%	1.72 58.1%	1.70 58.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.70 58.8%	1.72 58.1%