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Bundesliga Germany

23.01.2026 19:30 UTC Match prediction

23.01.2026 19:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli - Hamburger SV

Germany Football

FC St. Pauli

0 : 0

Finished

Hamburger SV

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FC St. Pauli - Hamburger SV January 23, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Hamburger SV.

Line favourite market consensus: Hamburger SV. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.95 / X 2.92 / 2 2.70
1X2 market: FC St. Pauli 32.3% / X 32.5% / Hamburger SV 35.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 63.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%

1 32.2%

X 32.6%

2 35.2%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%

Over 2.5 36.2%

Under 2.5 63.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 23.01.2026 19:30 UTC

Match center

FC St. Pauli - Hamburger SV

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.70 market consensus · line only

X 2.92 market consensus · line only

1 2.96 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.42 market consensus · line only

12 1.40 market consensus · line only

1X 1.47 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.42 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.13 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.65 market consensus · line only

2 +1 4.78 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.63 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.49 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.70 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.10 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	3.10 32.3%
X	2.96 33.8%
	2.72 36.8%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	2.85 35.1%	3.05 32.8%	3.09 32.4%	2.80 35.7%	2.90 34.5%	3.05 32.8%
X	2.90 34.5%	2.95 33.9%	3.03 33.0%	2.80 35.7%	3.00 33.3%	2.87 34.8%
	2.66 37.6%	2.66 37.6%	2.76 36.2%	2.63 38.0%	2.62 38.2%	2.67 37.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	1.75 57.1%	1.76 56.8%	1.66 60.2%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.72 58.1%	1.67 59.9%	1.65 60.6%	1.74 57.5%
yes	2.00 50.0%	2.07 48.3%	2.11 47.4%	2.10 47.6%	2.10 47.6%	2.05 48.8%	2.15 46.5%	2.11 47.4%	2.19 45.7%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Marathonbet
draw_away	1.40 71.4%	1.42 70.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.42 70.4%
home_away	1.33 75.2%	1.44 69.4%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.39 71.9%	1.43 69.9%
home_draw	1.45 69.0%	1.51 66.2%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%