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Bundesliga Germany

22.02.2026 16:30 UTC Match prediction

22.02.2026 16:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli - Werder Bremen

Germany Football

FC St. Pauli

2 : 1

Finished

Werder Bremen

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FC St. Pauli - Werder Bremen February 22, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like FC St. Pauli.

Line favourite market consensus: FC St. Pauli. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.68 / X 3.10 / 2 2.77
1X2 market: FC St. Pauli 35.3% / X 30.5% / Werder Bremen 34.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 55.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.7%

1 35.3%

X 30.5%

2 34.2%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%

Over 2.5 45.1%

Under 2.5 54.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 22.02.2026 16:30 UTC

Match center

FC St. Pauli - Werder Bremen

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.78 market consensus · line only

X 3.11 market consensus · line only

1 2.68 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.47 market consensus · line only

12 1.36 market consensus · line only

1X 1.44 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.49 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.19 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.70 market consensus · line only

2 +1 4.75 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.12 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.74 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.96 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.80 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	2.75 36.4%
X	3.20 31.3%
	2.85 35.1%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	2.66 37.6%	2.63 38.0%	2.78 36.0%	2.63 38.0%	2.62 38.2%	2.70 37.0%
X	3.10 32.3%	3.15 31.8%	3.25 30.8%	2.90 34.5%	3.20 31.3%	3.15 31.8%
	2.66 37.6%	2.88 34.7%	2.88 34.7%	2.63 38.0%	2.75 36.4%	2.77 36.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	2.00 50.0%	2.06 48.5%	1.94 51.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.95 51.3%	2.00 50.0%	1.91 52.4%	1.92 52.1%	2.08 48.1%
yes	1.77 56.5%	1.77 56.5%	1.79 55.9%	1.83 54.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.83 54.6%	1.79 55.9%	1.81 55.3%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.45 69.0%	1.50 66.7%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.40 71.4%
home_away	1.30 76.9%	1.39 71.9%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.34 74.6%	1.30 76.9%
home_draw	1.45 69.0%	1.48 67.6%	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.47 68.0%	1.44 69.4%

Match center

FC St. Pauli

L W L D D

14.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 0:4 Bayer Leverkusen

07.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 2:1 VfB Stuttgart

31.01 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 1:2 FC Augsburg

27.01 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 1:1 RB Leipzig

23.01 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 0:0 Hamburger SV

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

0.8 Scored

1.6 Conceded

5 Points

Werder Bremen

L L D L L

14.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Werder Bremen 0:3 Bavariya

07.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Werder Bremen 0:1 Frayburg

31.01 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Werder Bremen 1:1 Borussia Mönchengladbach

27.01 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

Werder Bremen 0:2 1899 Hoffenheim

24.01 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Werder Bremen 0:1 Bayer Leverkusen

0 Wins

1 Draws

4 Losses

0.2 Scored

1.6 Conceded

1 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyFC St. Pauli - Werder Bremen

FC St. Pauli

2 matches total

Werder Bremen

FC St. Pauli: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (50%)

Werder Bremen: 1 (50%)

Biggest win Werder Bremen 0:1 (04.10 13:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 1 goals (0:1, 04.10 13:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (27.04 15:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 0

Match history

04.10 13:30 UTC

Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli

0:1

Werder Bremen

27.04 15:30 UTC

Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli

0:0

Werder Bremen