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Bundesliga Germany

31.01.2026 17:30 UTC Match prediction

31.01.2026 17:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

Hamburger SV - Bayern München

Germany Football

Hamburger SV

2 : 2

Finished

Bayern München

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Hamburger SV - Bayern München January 31, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayern München.

Line favourite market consensus: Bayern München. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 8.59 / X 5.98 / 2 1.30
1X2 market: Hamburger SV 11.1% / X 15.9% / Bayern München 72.9%
Total 2.5: over probability 68.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%

1 11.1%

X 15.9%

2 73.1%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.2%

Over 2.5 68.2%

Under 2.5 31.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 31.01.2026 17:30 UTC

Match center

Hamburger SV - Bayern München

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.30 market consensus · line only

X 6.01 market consensus · line only

1 8.52 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.08 market consensus · line only

12 1.13 market consensus · line only

1X 3.53 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.07 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 1.28 market consensus · line only

2 +1 1.43 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 7.40 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.38 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.96 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.11 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.69 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	9.37 10.7%
X	6.44 15.5%
	1.30 76.9%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	7.90 12.7%	8.40 11.9%	8.50 11.8%	8.00 12.5%	7.50 13.3%	9.25 10.8%
X	5.50 18.2%	6.20 16.1%	6.30 15.9%	5.50 18.2%	6.00 16.7%	5.80 17.2%
	1.31 76.3%	1.31 76.3%	1.35 74.1%	1.30 76.9%	1.30 76.9%	1.34 74.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	2.15 46.5%	2.15 46.5%	2.05 48.8%	2.10 47.6%	2.05 48.8%	2.07 48.3%	2.20 45.5%	2.03 49.3%	2.18 45.9%
yes	1.67 59.9%	1.71 58.5%	1.70 58.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.62 61.7%	1.70 58.8%	1.74 57.5%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Marathonbet
draw_away	1.07 93.5%	1.09 91.7%	1.08 92.6%	1.08 92.6%	1.09 91.7%	1.09 91.7%
home_away	1.10 90.9%	1.15 87.0%	1.14 87.7%	1.12 89.3%	1.14 87.7%	1.14 87.7%
home_draw	3.25 30.8%	3.48 28.7%	3.40 29.4%	3.40 29.4%	3.45 29.0%	3.52 28.4%