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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
29.08.2025 18:30 UTC Match prediction
29.08.2025 18:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

Hamburger SV - FC St. Pauli

Germany Football
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
0 : 2
Finished
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Hamburger SV - FC St. Pauli August 29, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Hamburger SV.

Line favourite market consensus: Hamburger SV. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.45 / X 3.29 / 2 2.96
  • 1X2 market: Hamburger SV 38.9% / X 29.0% / FC St. Pauli 32.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 52.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 38.9%
X 28.9%
2 32.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.2%
Over 2.5 47.3%
Under 2.5 52.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 29.08.2025 18:30 UTC
Match center

Hamburger SV - FC St. Pauli

Form 1/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.97 market consensus · line only
X 3.29 market consensus · line only
1 2.45 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.57 market consensus · line only
12 1.34 market consensus · line only
1X 1.40 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.59 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.25 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.90 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.34 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.03 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.82 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.01 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.76 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.49 40.2%
X 3.39 29.5%
3.03 33.0%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.42 41.3% 2.47 40.5% 2.52 39.7% 2.40 41.7% 2.45 40.8% 2.50 40.0%
X 3.25 30.8% 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.10 32.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.40 29.4%
2.92 34.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.08 32.5% 2.90 34.5% 2.88 34.7% 3.00 33.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.00 50.0% 2.06 48.5% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.02 49.5% 2.00 50.0% 1.98 50.5% 2.04 49.0%
yes 1.73 57.8% 1.77 56.5% 1.74 57.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.74 57.5% 1.82 55.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.53 65.4% 1.59 62.9% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.58 63.3%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.37 73.0% 1.36 73.5% 1.30 76.9% 1.32 75.8% 1.36 73.5%
home_draw 1.40 71.4% 1.43 69.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.42 70.4% 1.42 70.4%
Match center
Hamburger SV
D
24.08 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
Hamburger SV 0:0 Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
0.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
1 Points
FC St. Pauli
D L D L D
23.08 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli 3:3 Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
17.05 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli 0:2 VfL BochumVfL Bochum
11.05 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli 2:2 Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
03.05 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli 0:1 VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
27.04 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli 0:0 Werder BremenWerder Bremen
0 Wins
3 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.6 Conceded
3 Points