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Bundesliga Germany

14.02.2026 14:30 UTC Match prediction

14.02.2026 14:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

Hamburger SV - Union Berlin

Germany Football

Hamburger SV

3 : 2

Finished

Union Berlin

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Hamburger SV - Union Berlin February 14, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Hamburger SV.

Line favourite market consensus: Hamburger SV. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.42 / X 3.12 / 2 3.14
1X2 market: Hamburger SV 39.3% / X 30.4% / Union Berlin 30.3%
Total 2.5: over probability 57.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%

1 39.3%

X 30.5%

2 30.3%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.5%

Over 2.5 42.7%

Under 2.5 57.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 14.02.2026 14:30 UTC

Match center

Hamburger SV - Union Berlin

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.15 market consensus · line only

X 3.13 market consensus · line only

1 2.42 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.57 market consensus · line only

12 1.36 market consensus · line only

1X 1.36 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.59 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.23 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.05 market consensus · line only

2 +1 5.80 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.24 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.67 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.87 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.88 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	2.47 40.5%
X	3.17 31.6%
	3.26 30.7%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	2.35 42.6%	2.40 41.7%	2.50 40.0%	2.38 42.0%	2.40 41.7%	2.42 41.3%
X	3.10 32.3%	3.20 31.3%	3.25 30.8%	3.00 33.3%	3.20 31.3%	3.10 32.3%
	3.15 31.8%	3.20 31.3%	3.25 30.8%	3.00 33.3%	3.10 32.3%	3.15 31.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	1.90 52.6%	1.91 52.4%	1.85 54.1%	1.85 54.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.87 53.5%	1.87 53.5%	1.83 54.6%	1.92 52.1%
yes	1.85 54.1%	1.90 52.6%	1.87 53.5%	1.85 54.1%	1.95 51.3%	1.87 53.5%	1.87 53.5%	1.87 53.5%	1.94 51.6%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.55 64.5%	1.60 62.5%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.60 62.5%	1.53 65.4%
home_away	1.30 76.9%	1.39 71.9%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.35 74.1%	1.33 75.2%
home_draw	1.35 74.1%	1.39 71.9%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.38 72.5%	1.30 76.9%