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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
03.05.2025 13:30 UTC Match prediction
03.05.2025 13:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

RB Leipzig - Bayern München

Germany Football
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig
3 : 3
Finished
Bayern München
Bayern München

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction RB Leipzig - Bayern München May 3, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayern München.

Line favourite market consensus: Bayern München. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.84 / X 4.85 / 2 1.62
  • 1X2 market: RB Leipzig 20.1% / X 20.0% / Bayern München 59.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 3.0%
1 20.1%
X 20.0%
2 59.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 03.05.2025 13:30 UTC
Match center

RB Leipzig - Bayern München

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.62 market consensus · line only
X 4.85 market consensus · line only
1 4.84 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.21 market consensus · line only
12 1.21 market consensus · line only
1X 2.45 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
4.84 20.7%
X 4.85 20.6%
1.62 61.7%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 1.21 82.6%
home_away 1.21 82.6%
home_draw 2.45 40.8%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
Over 3.5 1.83 54.6%
Under 3.5 2.06 48.5%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.89 25.7%
1.29 77.5%
Match center
RB Leipzig
L D W W W
26.04 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
RB Leipzig 0:4 Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
19.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
RB Leipzig 1:1 Holstein KielHolstein Kiel
11.04 18:30 UTC Bundesliga
RB Leipzig 3:2 VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
05.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
RB Leipzig 3:1 1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
26.10 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
RB Leipzig 3:1 FrayburgFrayburg
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
1.8 Conceded
10 Points
Bayern München
W W D W W
26.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 3:0 MayntsMaynts
19.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 4:0 1. FC Heidenheim1. FC Heidenheim
12.04 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 2:2 Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
04.04 18:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 3:1 FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
27.10 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 5:0 VfL BochumVfL Bochum
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
3.4 Scored
0.6 Conceded
13 Points