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Bundesliga Germany

17.01.2026 17:30 UTC Match prediction

17.01.2026 17:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

RB Leipzig - Bayern München

Germany Football

RB Leipzig

1 : 5

Finished

Bayern München

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction RB Leipzig - Bayern München January 17, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayern München.

Line favourite market consensus: Bayern München. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.68 / X 4.65 / 2 1.61
1X2 market: RB Leipzig 20.4% / X 20.5% / Bayern München 59.1%
Total 2.5: over probability 71.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%

1 20.4%

X 20.5%

2 59.2%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.5%

Over 2.5 71.6%

Under 2.5 28.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 17.01.2026 17:30 UTC

Match center

RB Leipzig - Bayern München

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.61 market consensus · line only

X 4.66 market consensus · line only

1 4.68 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.20 market consensus · line only

12 1.20 market consensus · line only

1X 2.33 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.19 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.03 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 1.60 market consensus · line only

2 +1 1.97 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.31 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 3.31 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.89 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.39 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	4.70 21.3%
X	4.80 20.8%
	1.63 61.4%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	4.50 22.2%	4.70 21.3%	4.96 20.2%	4.60 21.7%	4.50 22.2%	4.70 21.3%
X	4.60 21.7%	4.80 20.8%	4.75 21.1%	4.40 22.7%	4.75 21.1%	4.70 21.3%
	1.61 62.1%	1.61 62.1%	1.66 60.2%	1.57 63.7%	1.60 62.5%	1.67 59.9%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	2.90 34.5%	3.05 32.8%	2.89 34.6%	2.80 35.7%	2.75 36.4%	2.87 34.8%	2.80 35.7%	2.84 35.2%	3.07 32.6%
yes	1.38 72.5%	1.38 72.5%	1.37 73.0%	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.38 72.5%	1.40 71.4%	1.37 73.0%	1.41 70.9%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Marathonbet
draw_away	1.20 83.3%	1.21 82.6%	1.18 84.8%	1.18 84.8%	1.23 81.3%	1.21 82.6%
home_away	1.15 87.0%	1.23 81.3%	1.20 83.3%	1.18 84.8%	1.20 83.3%	1.22 82.0%
home_draw	2.25 44.4%	2.37 42.2%	2.30 43.5%	2.30 43.5%	2.30 43.5%	2.34 42.7%

Match center

RB Leipzig

W L L W D

14.01 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

RB Leipzig 2:0 Frayburg

20.12 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

RB Leipzig 1:3 Bayer Leverkusen

12.12 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

RB Leipzig 1:3 Union Berlin

06.12 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

RB Leipzig 6:0 Eintracht Frankfurt

28.11 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

RB Leipzig 0:0 Borussia Mönchengladbach

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

2.0 Scored

1.2 Conceded

7 Points

Bayern München

W W W D W

14.01 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 3:1 1. FC Köln

11.01 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 8:1 VfL Wolfsburg

21.12 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 4:0 1. FC Heidenheim

14.12 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 2:2 Maynts

06.12 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 5:0 VfB Stuttgart

4 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

4.4 Scored

0.8 Conceded

13 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyRB Leipzig - Bayern München

RB Leipzig

2 matches total

Bayern München

RB Leipzig: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (50%)

Bayern München: 1 (50%)

Biggest win Bavariya 0:6 (22.08 18:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 6 goals (0:6, 22.08 18:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 3:3 (03.05 13:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 9

9 Goals conceded 3

Match history

22.08 18:30 UTC

Bundesliga

RB Leipzig

0:6

Bavariya

03.05 13:30 UTC

Bundesliga

RB Leipzig

3:3

Bavariya