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Bundesliga Germany

32 round 03.05.2026 17:30 UTC Match prediction

03.05.2026 17:30 UTC 32 round

Finished

Bundesliga

SC Freiburg - VfL Wolfsburg

Germany Football

Stadium Europe-park Shtadion

SC Freiburg

1 : 1

Finished

VfL Wolfsburg

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 VfL Wolfsburg — 37%

1 · SC Freiburg36.7%

X · draw26.1%

2 · VfL Wolfsburg37.2%

Model estimate: win SC Freiburg 36.7%, draw 26.1%, win VfL Wolfsburg 37.2%. Model favourite — VfL Wolfsburg.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction SC Freiburg - VfL Wolfsburg May 3, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like SC Freiburg.

Line favourite market consensus: SC Freiburg. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.53 / X 3.50 / 2 2.64
1X2 market: SC Freiburg 37.3% / X 27.0% / VfL Wolfsburg 35.8%
Glicko: SC Freiburg 36.7% / X 26.1% / VfL Wolfsburg 37.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 37.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.0%

1 37.3%

X 27.0%

2 35.7%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%

Over 2.5 57.4%

Under 2.5 42.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Glavnyy konsensus AI: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 3/5

Confidence 52.1%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Stadium Europe-Park (Frayburg-im-Braysgau, Germany), 32 500 zriteley (94% pri vmestimosti 34 700)

Referee Bastian Dankert (Rostok)

Start 03.05.2026 17:30 UTC

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model VfL Wolfsburg 37%

💹 Market SC Freiburg 3727%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

SC Freiburg - VfL Wolfsburg

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Frayburg - Volfsburg, 3 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Championship Germany po futbolu (Bundesliga) 2025/2026, 32 round. Frayburg - Volfsburg, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

7/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:1

Events 14

Statistics 24

Lineups 40

min Event Player Team

55' 55' Normal Goal | K. Koulierakis | assist/sub out: C. Eriksen K. Koulierakis VfL Wolfsburg

57' 57' Yellow Card | Matthias Ginter M. Ginter SC Freiburg

58' 58' Substitution 1 | Lucas Höler | assist/sub out: I. Matanovic L. Holer SC Freiburg

58' 58' Substitution 2 | Bruno Ogbus | assist/sub out: P. Lienhart B. Ogbus SC Freiburg

71' 71' Substitution 3 | Vincenzo Grifo | assist/sub out: Derry Scherhant V. Grifo SC Freiburg

72' 72' Substitution 4 | Christian Günter | assist/sub out: Lukas Kübler C. Gunter SC Freiburg

72' 72' Substitution 1 | Vinícius Souza | assist/sub out: Mattias Svanberg Vinicius Souza VfL Wolfsburg

72' 72' Substitution 2 | Vinícius Souza | assist/sub out: Mattias Svanberg Vinicius Souza VfL Wolfsburg

Metric SC Freiburg VfL Wolfsburg SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.94 0.82 final

Zablokirovannye udary 3 2 final

Shots off target 5 7 final

Shots on target 3 4 final

Udary vsego 11 13 final

Fouls soversheno 5 11 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 1 final

Offsides 2 1 final

SC Freiburg #1 N. Atubolu, #9 L. Holer, #30 C. Gunter, #32 V. Grifo, #44 J. Manzambi, #8 M. Eggestein, #14 Yuito Suzuki, #43 B. Ogbus, #19 J. Beste, #28 M. Ginter, #29 P. Treu

VfL Wolfsburg #1 K. Grabara, #4 K. Koulierakis, #17 D. Pejčinović, #21 J. Mæhle, #3 D. Vavro, #11 A. Daghim, #24 C. Eriksen, #5 Vinicius Souza, #6 J. Belocian, #39 Patrick Wimmer, #26 S. Kumbedi

Player Team Metric SStats

B. Ogbus SC Freiburg Dribling popytki 2

B. Ogbus SC Freiburg Edinoborstva vyigrano 8

B. Ogbus SC Freiburg Seyvy 0

B. Ogbus SC Freiburg football.player.minutes_played 58

B. Ogbus SC Freiburg Klyuchevye pasy 41

B. Ogbus SC Freiburg Reyting (staryy) 6.7

B. Ogbus SC Freiburg Perekhvaty 1

B. Ogbus SC Freiburg Otbory vsego 38

C. Gunter SC Freiburg Dribling popytki 1

C. Gunter SC Freiburg Edinoborstva vyigrano 3

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

SC Freiburg 38.5% 36.7% market favourite

Draw 26.8% 26.1% draw risk

VfL Wolfsburg 34.7% 37.2% Glicko contrarian

xG - 1.32 : 1.33

Total 2.5 Over 37.0% - Under 63.0%

Model check - - Difference 0.02

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 36.7% / 26.1% / 37.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,503 / 1,399 SC Freiburg / VfL Wolfsburg

RD 74 / 74 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.64 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 37.2%

X 3.50 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.53 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 36.7%

Double chance

X2 1.52 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 63.3%

12 1.29 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 73.9%

1X 1.47 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 62.8%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.52 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.24 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.58 market consensus · line only

2 +1 4.28 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.66 market consensus · no value · model 37.0%

Under 2.5 2.24 market consensus · value +41.0% · model 63.0%

Both teams to score

No 2.43 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.52 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	2.56 39.1%	2.63 38.0%	2.45 40.8%	2.45 40.8%	2.57 38.9%	2.45 40.8%
X	3.50 28.6%	3.70 27.0%	3.30 30.3%	3.25 30.8%	3.50 28.6%	3.50 28.6%
	2.56 39.1%	2.74 36.5%	2.63 38.0%	2.50 40.0%	2.67 37.5%	2.63 38.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.45 40.8%	2.42 41.3%	2.38 42.0%	2.38 42.0%	2.45 40.8%	2.63 38.0%	2.40 41.7%	2.39 41.8%	2.38 42.0%
yes	1.50 66.7%	1.51 66.2%	1.57 63.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.44 69.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.51 66.2%	1.52 65.8%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.48 67.6%	1.55 64.5%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%
home_away	1.25 80.0%	1.32 75.8%	1.30 76.9%	1.28 78.1%	1.30 76.9%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.48 67.6%	1.51 66.2%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.44 69.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.04 96.2%	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25	—	1.08 92.6%
Over 1.5	1.22 82.0%	1.16 86.2%
Over 1.75	—	1.22 82.0%
Over 2.0	—	1.26 79.4%
Over 2.25	—	1.52 65.8%
Over 2.5	1.65 60.6%	1.71 58.5%
Over 3.5	2.60 38.5%	—
Over 4.5	4.75 21.1%	—
Under 0.5	10.00 10.0%	—
Under 1.5	4.20 23.8%	—
Under 2.5	2.20 45.5%	—
Under 3.5	1.48 67.6%	—
Under 4.5	1.18 84.8%	—

Match center

SC Freiburg

Founded 1904

VfL Wolfsburg

Founded 1945

Match center

SC Freiburg

PO P. Osterhage Knee Injury

MR M. Rosenfelder Hamstring Injury

VfL Wolfsburg

JW J. Wind Muscle Injury

MA M. Arnold Groin Injury

Patrik Osterkhage Travmirovannye Marius Myuller Rozherio Yonas Vind Yenson Selt Kleyton Santos Bentse Dardai Maksimilian Arnold

SC Freiburg Founded: 1904

VfL Wolfsburg Founded: 1945

Match center

SC Freiburg

L W W L W

26.04 15:30 UTC Bundesliga

SC Freiburg 0:4 Borussia Dortmund

19.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

SC Freiburg 2:1 1. FC Heidenheim

12.04 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

SC Freiburg 1:0 Maynts

04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

SC Freiburg 2:3 Bavariya

22.03 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

SC Freiburg 2:1 FC St. Pauli

3 Wins

0 Draws

2 Losses

1.4 Scored

1.8 Conceded

9 Points

VfL Wolfsburg

D W L L L

25.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

VfL Wolfsburg 0:0 Borussia Mönchengladbach

18.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

VfL Wolfsburg 2:1 Union Berlin

11.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

VfL Wolfsburg 1:2 Eintracht Frankfurt

04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

VfL Wolfsburg 3:6 Bayer Leverkusen

21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

VfL Wolfsburg 0:1 Werder Bremen

1 Wins

1 Draws

3 Losses

1.2 Scored

2.0 Conceded

4 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historySC Freiburg - VfL Wolfsburg

SC Freiburg

2 matches total

VfL Wolfsburg

SC Freiburg: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

VfL Wolfsburg: 2 (100%)

Biggest win Frayburg 4:3 (20.12 14:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 7 goals (4:3, 20.12 14:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

20.12 14:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Frayburg

4:3

VfL Wolfsburg

26.04 13:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Frayburg

1:0

VfL Wolfsburg

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 SC Freiburg

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 VfL Wolfsburg

31 Games 31

12 Wins 6

7 Draws 7

12 Losses 18

44 Scored 41

52 Conceded 66

43 Points 25

101.47 Attacks 87.32

45.17 Dangerous attacks 35.65

0 Big chances 0

12.1 Shots on goal 11.1

4.35 Shots on target 4.03

Goals Konstantinos Kulerakis Kristian Eriksen 0:1 55' Filipp Linkhart Yokhan Manzambi 1 75' Nakazaniya Mattias Ginter 57' Mattias Svanberg 81'

Frayburg Volfsburg 31 Games 31 12 Wins 6 7 Draws 7 12 Losses 18 44 Scored 41 52 Conceded 66 43 Points 25 101.47 Attacks 87.32 45.17 Dangerous attacks 35.65 0 Big chances 0 12.1 Shots on goal 11.1 4.35 Udary v stvor 4.03 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 4.32 Uglovye 4.16 2.06 Offsaydy 1.23 9.39 Foly 11.71 47.58 % vladeniya myachom 45.81 1.52 Warnings 1.97 0.1 Sendoffs 0.1 Goly Konstantinos Kulerakis Kristian Eriksen 0:1 55' Filipp Linkhart Yokhan Manzambi 1 75' Nakazaniya Mattias Ginter 57' Mattias Svanberg 81'