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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
03.05.2025 13:30 UTC Match prediction
03.05.2025 13:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

Union Berlin - Werder Bremen

Germany Football
Union Berlin
Union Berlin
2 : 2
Finished
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Union Berlin - Werder Bremen May 3, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Werder Bremen.

Line favourite market consensus: Werder Bremen. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.03 / X 3.52 / 2 2.42
  • 1X2 market: Union Berlin 32.1% / X 27.7% / Werder Bremen 40.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 52.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 2.7%
1 32.1%
X 27.7%
2 40.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 2.5%
Over 2.5 52.2%
Under 2.5 47.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 03.05.2025 13:30 UTC
Match center

Union Berlin - Werder Bremen

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.42 market consensus · line only
X 3.52 market consensus · line only
1 3.03 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.43 market consensus · line only
12 1.34 market consensus · line only
1X 1.62 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.87 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.04 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.03 33.0%
X 3.52 28.4%
2.42 41.3%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 1.43 69.9%
home_away 1.34 74.6%
home_draw 1.62 61.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
Over 2.5 1.87 53.5%
Under 2.5 2.04 49.0%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.18 45.9%
1.74 57.5%
Match center
Union Berlin
D D D W D
27.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 1:1 VfL BochumVfL Bochum
19.04 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 4:4 VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
12.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 0:0 Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
06.04 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 1:0 VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
27.10 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 1:1 Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
1 Wins
4 Draws
0 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.2 Conceded
7 Points
Werder Bremen
D W W W D
27.04 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
Werder Bremen 0:0 FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli
19.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Werder Bremen 1:0 VfL BochumVfL Bochum
13.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Werder Bremen 2:1 VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
05.04 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Werder Bremen 2:0 Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
26.10 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Werder Bremen 2:2 Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
1.4 Scored
0.6 Conceded
11 Points