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Bundesliga Germany

04.10.2025 13:30 UTC Match prediction

04.10.2025 13:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

Werder Bremen - FC St. Pauli

Germany Football

Werder Bremen

1 : 0

Finished

FC St. Pauli

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Werder Bremen - FC St. Pauli October 4, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Werder Bremen.

Line favourite market consensus: Werder Bremen. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.37 / X 3.58 / 2 2.87
1X2 market: Werder Bremen 40.2% / X 26.6% / FC St. Pauli 33.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 57.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%

1 40.2%

X 26.6%

2 33.2%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%

Over 2.5 57.5%

Under 2.5 42.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 04.10.2025 13:30 UTC

Match center

Werder Bremen - FC St. Pauli

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.87 market consensus · line only

X 3.59 market consensus · line only

1 2.37 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.60 market consensus · line only

12 1.30 market consensus · line only

1X 1.43 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.62 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.29 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.80 market consensus · line only

2 +1 4.57 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.66 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.25 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.39 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.54 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	2.44 41.0%
X	3.67 27.3%
	2.89 34.6%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	2.34 42.7%	2.36 42.4%	2.40 41.7%	2.30 43.5%	2.45 40.8%	2.37 42.2%
X	3.50 28.6%	3.75 26.7%	3.76 26.6%	3.40 29.4%	3.60 27.8%	3.55 28.2%
	2.88 34.7%	2.86 35.0%	3.01 33.2%	2.88 34.7%	2.75 36.4%	2.87 34.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	2.40 41.7%	2.50 40.0%	2.32 43.1%	2.30 43.5%	2.38 42.0%	2.40 41.7%	2.50 40.0%	2.36 42.4%	2.56 39.1%
yes	1.50 66.7%	1.54 64.9%	1.55 64.5%	1.57 63.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.52 65.8%	1.55 64.5%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Marathonbet
draw_away	1.57 63.7%	1.64 61.0%	1.60 62.5%	1.53 65.4%	1.60 62.5%	1.62 61.7%
home_away	1.25 80.0%	1.32 75.8%	1.30 76.9%	1.28 78.1%	1.29 77.5%	1.31 76.3%
home_draw	1.40 71.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.45 69.0%	1.45 69.0%

Match center

Werder Bremen

L L W D L

26.09 18:30 UTC Bundesliga

Werder Bremen 0:4 Bavariya

20.09 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Werder Bremen 0:3 Frayburg

14.09 15:30 UTC Bundesliga

Werder Bremen 4:0 Borussia Mönchengladbach

30.08 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Werder Bremen 3:3 Bayer Leverkusen

23.08 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Werder Bremen 1:4 Eintracht Frankfurt

1 Wins

1 Draws

3 Losses

1.6 Scored

2.8 Conceded

4 Points

FC St. Pauli

L L W W D

27.09 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 1:2 Bayer Leverkusen

19.09 18:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 0:2 VfB Stuttgart

14.09 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 2:1 FC Augsburg

29.08 18:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 2:0 Hamburger SV

23.08 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 3:3 Borussia Dortmund

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.6 Scored

1.6 Conceded

7 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyWerder Bremen - FC St. Pauli

Werder Bremen

1 matches total

FC St. Pauli

Werder Bremen: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (100%)

FC St. Pauli: 0 (0%)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (27.04 15:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

27.04 15:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Werder Bremen

0:0

FC St. Pauli