Match center
Start
28.07.2026 07:00 UTC
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28.07.2026 07:00 UTC
Finished
BUTAN: Premier League Standings
Paro - Thimphu FC
2
:
0
Finished
T
Thimphu FC
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Paro — 82%
Pure model vs market (1 · Paro): model 64% · market 83% Δ −19 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Paro 82.4%, draw 10.9%, win Thimphu FC 6.7%. Model favourite — Paro.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Paro - Thimphu FC July 28, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Paro.
Line favourite Fonbet: Paro. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.04 / X 9.00 / 2 12.50
- Glicko: Paro 82.4% / X 10.9% / Thimphu FC 6.7%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 15.3%
1 ✓ Pick
83.4%
X
9.6%
2
6.9%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Statistics and model
Premier LeagueLeague table
Paro
WWWWW
Thimphu FC
LLLWW
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Paro
W-D-L 8-1-1
Scored 3.91
Conceded 0.89
Thimphu FC
W-D-L 4-1-5
Scored 1.00
Conceded 1.60
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Paro
6
:
1
Thimphu FC
11.09
X8.40
213.50
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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Match center
Paro - Thimphu FC
Form
3/4
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
H2H
Line
More needed
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
2:0
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 82.4% fact: home
hit / ROI 11.0% / Brier 0.047 / LogLoss 0.194
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 82.4% fact: home
hit / ROI 11.0% / Brier 0.047 / LogLoss 0.194
Glicko-2: public filter
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 82.4% fact: home
hit / ROI 11.0% / Brier 0.047 / LogLoss 0.194
Glicko-2: precision filter
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 82.4% fact: home
hit / ROI 11.0% / Brier 0.047 / LogLoss 0.194
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Paro
83.6%
82.4%
market and model agree
Draw
10.4%
10.9%
draw risk
Thimphu FC
6.0%
6.7%
1X2: 2 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
82.4% / 10.9% / 6.7%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,823 / 1,351
Paro / Thimphu FC
RD
234 / 212
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,355-2,292 / 928-1,775
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
X
9.00
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.04
Fonbet · no value · model 82.4%
Double chance
12
1.02
Fonbet · no value · model 89.1%
1X
1.01
Fonbet · no value · model 93.3%
X2
6.70
Fonbet · no value · model 17.6%
Total
Over 2.5
5.70
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
1.10
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.90
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.80
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.90 52.6% |
| yes | 1.80 55.6% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.03 97.1% | 1.02 98.0% |
| 1x | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| x2 | 6.80 14.7% | 6.70 14.9% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.44 69.4% | |
| X | 3.22 31.1% |
| 9.30 10.8% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 1.73 57.8% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.99 50.3% |
Match center
Paro
W
W
W
Paro
3:1
Tensung
Paro
5:1
Thimphu FC
Paro
4:0
Tensung
3
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
4.0
Scored
0.7
Conceded
9
Points
Thimphu FC
L
L
L
W
Thimphu FC
0:2
Thimphu City
Thimphu FC
1:5
Paro
Paro
Thimphu FC
1:2
Drukpa
Thimphu FC
1:0
Tensung
1
Wins
0
Draws
3
Losses
0.8
Scored
2.3
Conceded
3
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyParo - Thimphu FC
Paro
1
matches total
Paro: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Thimphu FC: 0 (0%)
Biggest win
Paro 5:1 (16.07 10:00 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
6 goals (5:1, 16.07 10:00 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Paro
5:1
Thimphu FC
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- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form