Match center
Start
27.07.2026 21:00 UTC
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27.07.2026 21:00 UTC
Finished
Chile. Serie B
Union Espanola - Deportivo Recoleta
U
Union Espanola
0
:
2
Finished
D
Deportivo Recoleta
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Union Espanola — 43%
Pure model vs market (1 · Union Espanola): model 31% · market 44% Δ −13 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Union Espanola 43.2%, draw 26.9%, win Deportivo Recoleta 30.0%. Model favourite — Union Espanola.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Union Espanola (odds1.81)
Score 1:0
confidence 50%
✗ outcome missed
- • Model backs Union Espanola: probability 50% vs 55% on the line (odds 1.81)
- • no edge over the line (-5 pp) — informational only
- • Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Union Espanola - Deportivo Recoleta July 27, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Union Espanola.
Strongest: Union Espanola - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.07 / X 3.30 / 2 3.15
- 1X2 market: Union Espanola 43.8% / X 27.5% / Deportivo Recoleta 28.8%
- Glicko: Union Espanola 43.2% / X 26.9% / Deportivo Recoleta 30.0%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 10.4%
1
43.8%
X
27.5%
2
28.8%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1
4.50
↑ 29.00
1X2 X
3.20
↑ 6.90
1X2 2
1.80
↓ 1.04
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Statistics and model
Primera BLeague table
Union Espanola
DDLWW
Deportivo Recoleta
DDDLW
Best price
across 13 books
1
2.12
Betano
X
3.50
Betfair
2
3.34
Pinnacle
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Union Espanola
W-D-L 4-4-2
Scored 1.40
Conceded 1.20
xG 1.36
xGA 1.26
Deportivo Recoleta
W-D-L 2-4-4
Scored 1.30
Conceded 1.79
xG 1.13
xGA 1.30
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Model form (Glicko)
Union Espanola
Rating 1506
Deportivo Recoleta
Rating 1488
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Union Espanola
1
:
1
Deportivo Recoleta
12.02
X3.26
23.33
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Union Espanola 43%
💹 Market
Union Espanola 4376%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Union Espanola - Deportivo Recoleta
Form
1/1
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
Movement
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
0:2
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 43.2% fact: away
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.749 / LogLoss 1.205
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 43.2% fact: away
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.749 / LogLoss 1.205
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Union Espanola
43.9%
43.2%
market and model agree
Draw
27.2%
26.9%
draw risk
Deportivo Recoleta
28.9%
30.0%
1X2: 16 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
43.2% / 26.9% / 30.0%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,212 / 1,487
Union Espanola / Deportivo Recoleta
RD
210 / 235
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
793-1,631 / 1,017-1,957
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.19
market consensus · no value · model 30.0%
X
6.60
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.06
Fonbet · no value · model 43.2%
Double chance
12
1.07
Fonbet · no value · model 73.1%
1X
1.23
market consensus · no value · model 70.0%
X2
6.90
Fonbet · weak value +292.2% · model 56.8%
Handicap
2 +1
1.43
market consensus · line only
2 0
2.67
market consensus · line only
1 -1
2.70
market consensus · line only
1 0
1.42
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.79
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
1.94
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.12
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.64
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.05 48.8% | 2.09 47.9% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.10 47.6% | |
| X | 3.45 29.0% | 3.25 30.8% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.45 29.0% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.40 29.4% |
| 3.10 32.3% | 3.18 31.5% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.15 31.8% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.13 32.0% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.12 47.2% |
| yes | 1.64 61.0% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.23 81.3% | 1.26 79.4% | 1.07 93.5% |
| 1x | 1.21 82.6% | 1.24 80.7% | — |
| x2 | 1.73 57.8% | 1.78 56.2% | 6.90 14.5% |
Exact Score
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 0_1 | 9.00 11.1% |
| 0_2 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 0_3 | 31.00 3.2% |
| 0_4 | 71.00 1.4% |
| 1_0 | 7.00 14.3% |
| 1_1 | 6.00 16.7% |
| 1_2 | 9.00 11.1% |
| 1_3 | 21.00 4.8% |
| 1_4 | 51.00 2.0% |
| 2_0 | 9.00 11.1% |
| 2_1 | 7.00 14.3% |
| 2_2 | 11.00 9.1% |
| 2_3 | 23.00 4.4% |
| 2_4 | 61.00 1.6% |
| 3_0 | 17.00 5.9% |
| 3_1 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 3_2 | 19.00 5.3% |
Match center
Union Espanola
D
Union Espanola
2:2
San-Felipe
0
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
2.0
Scored
2.0
Conceded
1
Points
Deportivo Recoleta
D
Deportivo Recoleta
1:1
Deportes Ikike
0
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
1.0
Scored
1.0
Conceded
1
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyUnion Espanola - Deportivo Recoleta
Union Espanola
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The Union Espanola - Deportivo Recoleta breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form