AI verdict

AI pick Cagliari win probability ~52% best odds 1.74

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Cagliari. Full breakdown below.

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Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27
Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
28.07.2026 13:00 UTC
Finished

Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27

Cagliari - Modena

Football
Cagliari
Cagliari
1 : 0
Finished
M
Modena

Cagliari go head-to-head with Modena on July 28, 2026 in the Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27.

Recent form (W-D-L): Cagliari 0-1-0, Modena 1-0-0. Sportsbooks lean towards Cagliari, an implied 52% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Modena (odds5.50) Score 0:1 confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • Model backs Modena 🇮🇹: probability 50% vs 18% on the line (odds 5.50)
  • edge over the line +32 pp — value pick
  • Expected score 0:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Cagliari - Modena July 28, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Cagliari.

Line favourite market consensus: Cagliari. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.74 / X 3.36 / 2 4.51
  • 1X2 market: Cagliari 52.4% / X 27.3% / Modena 20.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.7% 15 books · best price +3.4%
1 52.7%
X 27.4%
2 19.9%

Odds source: consensus of 15 books (10Bet, 1xBet, Bet365, BetVictor, Betano, Betcity). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Friendlies Clubs
Best price across 12 books
1 1.78 Betano
X 3.60 Bet365
2 5.00 Marathonbet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Cagliari
W-D-L 3-4-3 Scored 1.01 Conceded 1.20 xG 1.83 xGA 1.17
Modena
W-D-L 8-1-1 Scored 4.09 Conceded 0.48 xG 3.08 xGA 0.55 Corners 3.0

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Cagliari
Rating 1674
Modena
Rating 1825

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Cagliari 1 : 1 Modena
11.71
X3.56
24.95

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 28.07.2026 13:00 UTC
Market 1 52.5% @ 1.74 / X 27.2% @ 3.36 / 2 20.3% @ 4.51
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Match center

Cagliari - Modena

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form home - 52.0% fact: home hit / ROI 81.0% / Brier 0.348 / LogLoss 0.655
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form home - 52.0% fact: home hit / ROI 81.0% / Brier 0.348 / LogLoss 0.655
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 9.00 Fonbet · line only
X 1.18 Fonbet · line only
1 1.03 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
12 4.10 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.05 Fonbet · line only
X2 7.20 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -1 2.25 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 1.68 market consensus · line only
2 0 2.10 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 1.55 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.13 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.05 Fonbet · line only
Yes 7.30 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
1.70 58.8% 1.78 56.2% 1.70 58.8% 1.80 55.6% 1.70 58.8% 1.73 57.8%
X 3.35 29.9% 3.42 29.2% 3.60 27.8% 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.30 30.3%
4.75 21.1% 4.71 21.2% 4.33 23.1% 4.45 22.5% 4.40 22.7% 4.60 21.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.05 95.2% 1.74 57.5%
yes 7.30 13.7% 2.02 49.5%

Double chance

Outcome Betcity Fonbet
12 1.26 79.4% 4.10 24.4%
1x 1.17 85.5% 1.05 95.2%
x2 2.00 50.0% 7.20 13.9%

Exact Score

Outcome 10Bet
0_0 7.50 13.3%
0_1 9.00 11.1%
0_2 21.00 4.8%
0_3 61.00 1.6%
1_0 5.00 20.0%
1_1 5.75 17.4%
1_2 13.00 7.7%
1_3 34.00 2.9%
1_4 126.00 0.8%
2_0 6.25 16.0%
2_1 7.00 14.3%
2_2 15.00 6.7%
2_3 46.00 2.2%
3_0 11.00 9.1%
3_1 12.00 8.3%
3_2 26.00 3.9%
3_3 67.00 1.5%
4_0 26.00 3.9%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 2-0-1, avg 1.33 gls
2026-07-28 · Kalyari 1:0 Modena
2023-02-03 · Kalyari 0:2 Modena
2022-09-02 · Kalyari 1:0 Modena
Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.62 (Liga Stavok) · X 4.2 (Betcity) · 2 5.8 (Pari)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 1.53 3.95 5.8
Winline 1.61 3.6 5
Fonbet 1.53 3.95 5.8
Betcity 1.55 4.2 5.5
Liga Stavok 1.62 3.6 5
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Cagliari
D
23.07 13:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Cagliari 0:0 Sampdoriya 🇮🇹
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
0.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
1 Points
Modena
W
25.07 14:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Modena 5:0 Boltsano 🇮🇹
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
5.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyCagliari - Modena

Cagliari
0 matches total
Modena
Biggest win largest score margin
Highest-scoring match most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Match history

Frequently asked questions

When does Cagliari vs Modena start?

July 28, 2026.