FreeMatch preview

Merida — Alcorcon

Football 14.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Favourite Merida best odds 2.43

AI analysis of team form, streaks and match statistics — full pick, probabilities and value below.

Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27
Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
14.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Finished

Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27

Merida - Alcorcon

Football
Merida
Merida
2 : 1
Finished
Alcorcon
Alcorcon

Merida go head-to-head with Alcorcon on August 14, 2026 in the Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27.

Recent form (W-D-L): Merida 1-2-2, Alcorcon 2-3-0. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PropickAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Merida (odds2.41) Score 1:0 confidence 50% ✓ outcome correct
  • Model backs Merida AD 🇪🇸: probability 50% vs 41% on the line (odds 2.41)
  • edge over the line +9 pp — value pick
  • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Merida - Alcorcon August 14, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Merida. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.02 / X 6.40 / 2 2.75

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 11.8% 3 books · best price +2.1%
1 37.6%
X 29.3%
2 33.1%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Friendlies Clubs
League table
Merida
#5483 ptsGP 41-0-32:10
Alcorcon
#2184 ptsGP 31-1-14:3
Best price across 8 books
1 2.49 Dafabet
X 3.25 Dafabet
2 2.80 Dafabet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Merida
W-D-L 2-4-4 Scored 1.14 Conceded 1.82 xG 1.24 xGA 1.16
Alcorcon
W-D-L 3-6-1 Scored 1.74 Conceded 0.87 xG 1.42 xGA 1.20 Corners 3.0

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Merida
Rating 1286
Alcorcon
Rating 1646

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Merida
38%
2.43
Draw
29%
6.40
Alcorcon
33%
37.00
Total
Over 2.5
48%
2.04
Under 2.5
52%
1.85
Both teams to score
Yes
55%
2.90
No
45%
2.05

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Merida 1 : 1 Alcorcon
12.49
X3.15
22.81

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 14.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Market 1 65.3% @ 1.02 / X 10.4% @ 6.40 / 2 24.2% @ 2.75
🏦 Virtual bank $10,000
$10,000Virtual balance

Play free: you start with $10,000 in virtual money. Bet on this match at our odds, then track your profit and climb the global leaderboard. No real money, no sign-up.

Match center

Merida - Alcorcon

Form 5/5 recent games
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form home - 37.9% fact: home hit / ROI 143.0% / Brier 0.579 / LogLoss 0.969
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form home - 37.9% fact: home hit / ROI 143.0% / Brier 0.579 / LogLoss 0.969
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.72 market consensus · line only
X 6.40 Fonbet · line only
1 1.02 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
12 1.08 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.01 Fonbet · line only
X2 8.50 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -1 1.83 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 4.80 Fonbet · line only
2 0 1.99 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.87 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.35 Fonbet · line only
Yes 2.90 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet Leon
no 1.35 74.1% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8%
yes 2.90 34.5% 1.65 60.6% 1.65 60.6% 1.72 58.1%

Double chance

Outcome Fonbet Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet
12 1.08 92.6% 1.52 65.8% 1.52 65.8%
1x 1.01 99.0% 1.23 81.3% 1.23 81.3%
x2 8.50 11.8% 1.28 78.1% 1.28 78.1%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.07 32.6%
X 2.08 48.1%
3.40 29.4%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.87 53.5%
Under 1 1.83 54.6%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 2-1-0, avg 3.33 gls
2026-08-14 · Merida 2:1 Alkorkon
2025-02-08 · Merida 2:1 Alkorkon
2024-11-03 · Merida 2:2 Alkorkon
Source: ruscore
Merida
D L L W D
2026-08-12 Club Friendly Games 2026
Merida Sevilla Atletico 0:0 Merida
2026-08-07 Club Friendly Games 2026
Merida Leganes 3:0 Merida
2026-08-01 Club Friendly Games 2026
Merida Merida 2:3 Betis B
2026-05-23 Primera Federacion 25/26, Group 1
Merida Osasuna B 1:2 Merida
2026-05-17 Primera Federacion 25/26, Group 1
Merida Merida 1:1 Unionistas Salamanca
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.6 Conceded
5 Points
Alcorcon
D D W D W
2026-08-12 Club Friendly Games 2026
Alcorcon 1:1 Rayo Majadahonda Alcorcon
2026-08-08 Club Friendly Games 2026
Alcorcon 1:1 Navalcarnero Alcorcon
2026-08-01 Club Friendly Games 2026
Alcorcon 2:0 Getafe B Alcorcon
2026-05-23 Primera Federacion 25/26, Group 2
Sevilla Atletico 1:1 Alcorcon Alcorcon
2026-05-16 Primera Federacion 25/26, Group 2
Alcorcon 6:2 Marbella Alcorcon
2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
2.2 Scored
1.0 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head history: Merida - Alcorcon

Merida
0 matches total
Alcorcon
Biggest win largest score margin
Highest-scoring match most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Match history

Frequently asked questions

When does Merida vs Alcorcon start?

August 14, 2026.