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AI verdict
AI pick Poblense
win probability ~37%
confidence Low
best odds 2.52
Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Poblense. Full breakdown below.
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✓ Prematch ready
Prematch data
✓Line
✓Form
✓H2H
✓Prediction
14.08.2026 17:00 UTC
Finished
Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27
Poblense - Atlético Baleares
P
Poblense
1
:
0
Finished
A
Atlético Baleares
Poblense take on Atlético Baleares on August 14, 2026 in the Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27.
Recent form (W-D-L): Poblense 2-1-2, Atlético Baleares 2-1-2. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 37% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Poblense — 37%
Model estimate: win Poblense 36.8%, draw 30.0%, win Atlético Baleares 33.2%. Model favourite — Poblense.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Xdraw (odds3.31)
Score 1:1
confidence 50%
✗ outcome missed
- • Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 30% on the line (odds 3.31)
- • edge over the line +20 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Poblense - Atlético Baleares August 14, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Poblense.
Line favourite market consensus: Poblense. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.52 / X 3.02 / 2 2.77
- Glicko: Poblense 36.8% / X 30.0% / Atlético Baleares 33.2%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 11.4%
5 books · best price +1.6%
1
36.4%
X
30.5%
2
33.2%
Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Statistics and model
Friendlies ClubsLeague table
Poblense
Atlético Baleares
Best price
across 7 books
1
2.48
Unibet
X
3.10
Betfair
2
2.74
Marathonbet
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Poblense
W-D-L 0-0-5
Scored 0.05
Conceded 3.54
xG 0.60
xGA 2.74
Atlético Baleares
W-D-L 3-4-3
Scored 1.30
Conceded 1.09
xG 0.78
xGA 1.83
Corners 4.4
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
%
Market consensus
Forecast by market
Match result
Poblense
36%
2.52
Draw
31%
3.02
Atlético Baleares
33%
2.77
Handicap
Poblense (0)
53%
1.77
Atlético Baleares (0)
47%
1.97
Total
Over 2.5
44%
2.11
Under 2.5
56%
1.68
Both teams to score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.92
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Poblense
1
:
1
Atlético Baleares
12.55
X3.03
22.84
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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Match center
Start
14.08.2026 17:00 UTC
Market
1 36.4% @ 2.52 / X 30.4% @ 3.02 / 2 33.2% @ 2.77
🥊 Humans vs Machines
👥 Community
Atlético Baleares 50%
📐 Math model
Poblense 37%
💹 Market
Poblense 36%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center
Poblense - Atlético Baleares
Poblense: win Poblense: draw Atlético Baleares win: Obschiy Total goals Over : Obschiy Total goals Under : Individualnyy Total goals Poblense Over : Individualnyy Total goals Poblense Under : Individualnyy Total goals Atlético Baleares Over : Individualnyy Total g…
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
8
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:0
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 36.8% fact: home
hit / ROI 152.0% / Brier 0.599 / LogLoss 0.998
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 36.8% fact: home
hit / ROI 152.0% / Brier 0.599 / LogLoss 0.998
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Poblense
36.4%
36.8%
market and model agree
Draw
30.5%
30.0%
draw risk
Atlético Baleares
33.2%
33.2%
1X2: 5 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
36.8% / 30.0% / 33.2%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,500 / 1,500
Poblense 🇪🇸 / Baleares 🇪🇸
RD
350 / 350
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
800-2,200 / 800-2,200
strength interval
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.72
market consensus · no value · model 33.2%
X
2.95
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.49
market consensus · no value · model 36.8%
Double chance
12
1.44
market consensus · no value · model 70.0%
1X
1.29
market consensus · no value · model 66.8%
X2
1.34
market consensus · no value · model 63.2%
Handicap
2 0
1.95
market consensus · line only
1 0
1.76
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.09
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
1.63
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.87
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.82
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Kambi BetMGM | Kambi Unibet | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.85 54.1% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.92 52.1% |
| yes | 1.82 55.0% | 1.82 55.0% | 1.82 55.0% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Kambi BetMGM | Kambi Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.27 78.7% | 1.34 74.6% | 1.58 63.3% | 1.58 63.3% |
| 1x | 1.32 75.8% | 1.39 71.9% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.22 82.0% |
| x2 | 1.39 71.9% | 1.47 68.0% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.25 80.0% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.18 31.5% | |
| X | 2.01 49.8% |
| 3.47 28.8% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 2.07 48.3% |
| Under 1 | 1.67 59.9% |
Match center
Poblense
Team form
Atlético Baleares
10
Matches
10
13
Goals
22
1.3
Per match
2.2
5
Wins
7
2
Draws
1
3
Losses
2
Poblense
L
D
W
W
L
Poblense
1:1
Agilas
Agilas
0:0
Poblense
Poblense
2:1
Numansiya
Numansiya
0:1
Poblense
Ibitsa Pitiusas
3:1
Poblense
2
Wins
1
Draws
2
Losses
1.2
Scored
0.8
Conceded
7
Points
Atlético Baleares
W
W
L
L
D
Atletiko Baleares
4:1
Santani
Atletiko Baleares
2:1
Malorka B
Atletiko Baleares
1:2
Real Khaen
Real Khaen
2:1
Atletiko Baleares
Atletiko Baleares
1:1
Korukho
2
Wins
1
Draws
2
Losses
2.0
Scored
1.2
Conceded
7
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyPoblense - Atlético Baleares
Poblense
8
matches total
Poblense: 5 (62.5%)
Draws:2 (25%)
Atlético Baleares: 1 (12.5%)
Biggest win
Poblense 🇪🇸 2:0 (12.09.20, 12:00)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
5 goals (2:3, 13.12.20, 04:00)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
1:1 (14.03.21, 10:15)
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Poblense 🇪🇸
0:0
Baleares 🇪🇸
Poblense 🇪🇸
2:1
Baleares 🇪🇸
Poblense 🇪🇸
1:0
Baleares 🇪🇸
Poblense 🇪🇸
2:1
Baleares 🇪🇸
Poblense 🇪🇸
1:1
Baleares 🇪🇸
Poblense 🇪🇸
2:3
Baleares 🇪🇸
Poblense 🇪🇸
2:0
Baleares 🇪🇸
Poblense 🇪🇸
1:0
Baleares 🇪🇸
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1
Poblense
Team 2
Atlético Baleares
Matches in history
14
Biggest draw
2:2
Highest-scoring match
2:3
Segunda Federason
2 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 2
Tovarischeskiy (kluby)
4 / 2 / 0 / 2 / 4 / 3
Primera Federason
2 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 4 / 3
Tersera Federason
4 / 0 / 1 / 3 / 4 / 8
Cup Spain
2 / 0 / 0 / 2 / 2 / 4
Unlock the full match prediction
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Poblense vs Atlético Baleares?
By the PropickAI model, Poblense is favoured — about 37% win probability.
What does PropickAI predict for Poblense vs Atlético Baleares?
The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Poblense. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.
When does Poblense vs Atlético Baleares start?
August 14, 2026.