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Colombia. Cup. Round of 32. Second leg
Colombia. Cup. Round of 32. Second leg
27.07.2026 18:30 UTC Match prediction
27.07.2026 18:30 UTC
Finished

Colombia. Cup. Round of 32. Second leg

Envigado - Real Cundinamarca

Football
Envigado
Envigado
1 : 0
Finished
R
Real Cundinamarca
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Envigado — 55%

Pure model vs market (1 · Envigado): model 39% · market 56% Δ −17 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Envigado54.6%
X · draw26.9%
2 · Real Cundinamarca18.5%

Model estimate: win Envigado 54.6%, draw 26.9%, win Real Cundinamarca 18.5%. Model favourite — Envigado.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Envigado (odds1.48) Score 2:1 confidence 54% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Model backs Envigado: probability 54% vs 67% on the line (odds 1.48)
  • • no edge over the line (-13 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Envigado - Real Cundinamarca July 27, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Envigado.

Strongest: Envigado - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.61 / X 3.36 / 2 5.48
  • 1X2 market: Envigado 56.3% / X 27.0% / Real Cundinamarca 16.7%
  • Glicko: Envigado 54.6% / X 26.9% / Real Cundinamarca 18.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 10.1%
1 56.4%
X 27.0%
2 16.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Envigado 3 : 0 Real Cundinamarca
11.73
X3.14
24.95

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 27.07.2026 18:30 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Envigado 55%
💹 Market Envigado 5630%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Envigado - Real Cundinamarca

Form 3/0 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 54.6% fact: home hit / ROI 70.0% / Brier 0.312 / LogLoss 0.605
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 54.6% fact: home hit / ROI 70.0% / Brier 0.312 / LogLoss 0.605
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Envigado 55.7% 54.6% market and model agree
Draw 27.2% 26.9% draw risk
Real Cundinamarca 17.2% 18.5%
1X2: 16 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 54.6% / 26.9% / 18.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,393 / 1,500 Envigado / Real Cundinamarca
RD 239 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 914-1,871 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.44 market consensus · no value · model 18.5%
X 6.90 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.06 Fonbet · no value · model 54.6%
Double chance
12 1.06 Fonbet · no value · model 73.1%
1X 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 81.5%
X2 6.50 Fonbet · weak value +194.9% · model 45.4%
Handicap
2 +0.5 1.93 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.65 market consensus · line only
2 0 3.60 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.78 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.33 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.20 Fonbet · line only
Yes 3.85 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
1.64 61.0% 1.59 62.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.60 62.5%
X 3.30 30.3% 3.38 29.6% 3.40 29.4% 3.35 29.9% 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4%
5.40 18.5% 5.69 17.6% 6.00 16.7% 5.30 18.9% 5.00 20.0% 5.75 17.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.20 83.3% 1.58 63.3%
yes 3.85 26.0% 2.24 44.6%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.24 80.7% 1.27 78.7% 1.06 94.3%
1x 1.11 90.1% 1.13 88.5% 1.02 98.0%
x2 1.97 50.8% 2.03 49.3% 6.50 15.4%

Exact Score

Outcome 10Bet
0_0 6.50 15.4%
0_1 9.50 10.5%
0_2 23.00 4.4%
0_3 71.00 1.4%
1_0 4.50 22.2%
1_1 5.75 17.4%
1_2 15.00 6.7%
1_3 51.00 2.0%
2_0 5.75 17.4%
2_1 7.00 14.3%
2_2 17.00 5.9%
2_3 56.00 1.8%
3_0 10.00 10.0%
3_1 12.00 8.3%
3_2 29.00 3.5%
3_3 81.00 1.2%
4_0 23.00 4.4%
4_1 29.00 3.5%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

EnvigadoWLDWWWDDWL
Real CundinamarcaLDLWWDLDLD
H2H 2-0-0, avg 1.5 gls
2026-07-27 · Envigado 1:0 Real Kundinamarka
2026-01-26 · Envigado 2:0 Real Kundinamarka
Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.6 (Betcity) · X 3.6 (Winline) · 2 7.2 (Pari)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 1.45 3.55 7.2
Winline 1.53 3.6 6.4
Fonbet 1.47 3.5 6.7
Betcity 1.6 3.6 5.6
Liga Stavok 1.54 3.6 6.2
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Envigado
L D W
21.07 22:00 UTC+0 Colombia: Cup Kolumbii - Pervyy etap - Playoff
Envigado 0:3 Onse Kaldas
29.05 20:00 UTC+0 Fonbet football live
Envigado 1:1 Real KartakhenaReal Kartakhena
26.05 01:00 UTC+0 Fonbet football live
Envigado 3:2 Real KartakhenaReal Kartakhena
1 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.3 Scored
2.0 Conceded
4 Points