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CONCACAF Central American Cup. Group stage
CONCACAF Central American Cup. Group stage
04.08.2026 01:00 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
04.08.2026 01:00 UTC
Finished

CONCACAF Central American Cup. Group stage

Independiente de La Chorrera - Herrera

Football
Independiente de La Chorrera
Independiente de La Chorrera
0 : 0
Finished
H
Herrera

Independiente de La Chorrera face Herrera on August 4, 2026 in the CONCACAF Central American Cup. Group stage.

Recent form (W-D-L): Independiente de La Chorrera 0-0-1, Herrera 1-0-0. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 59% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Independiente de La Chorrera — 59%

Pure model vs market (1 · Independiente de La Chorrera): model 35% · market 61% Δ −26 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Independiente de La Chorrera59.2%
market61%
X · draw25.8%
market26%
2 · Herrera15.0%
market13%

Model estimate: win Independiente de La Chorrera 59.2%, draw 25.8%, win Herrera 15.0%. Model favourite — Independiente de La Chorrera.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Herrera (odds6.10) Score 0:1 confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs Errera: probability 50% vs 16% on the line (odds 6.10)
  • • edge over the line +34 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 0:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Independiente de La Chorrera - Herrera August 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Independiente de La Chorrera.

Line favourite market consensus: Independiente de La Chorrera. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.52 / X 3.56 / 2 6.90
  • Glicko: Independiente de La Chorrera 59.2% / X 25.8% / Herrera 15.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.7% 2 books · best price +1.3%
1 60.8%
X 26.0%
2 13.2%

Odds source: consensus of 2 books (Baltbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Liga PanameG±a de FGєtbol
League table
Independiente de La Chorrera
#822 ptsGP 184-10-421:17
Herrera
#1211 ptsGP 172-5-1014:37
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Independiente de La Chorrera
W-D-L 1-5-4 Scored 0.81 Conceded 1.20 xG 1.19 xGA 1.20
Herrera
W-D-L 1-3-6 Scored 0.70 Conceded 1.60 xG 0.80 xGA 1.68

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Independiente de La Chorrera
Rating 1506
Herrera
Rating 1355

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Independiente de La Chorrera 3 : 1 Herrera
11.50
X3.42
27.02

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 04.08.2026 01:00 UTC
Market 1 60.7% @ 1.52 / X 25.9% @ 3.56 / 2 13.4% @ 6.90
Match center

Independiente de La Chorrera - Herrera

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Independiente de La Chorrera 60.8% 59.2% market and model agree
Draw 26.0% 25.8% draw risk
Herrera 13.2% 15.0%
1X2: 2 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 59.2% / 25.8% / 15.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,409 / 1,600 Independiente de la Chorrera / Herrera
RD 167 / 291 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,074-1,744 / 1,017-2,182 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.90 market consensus · no value · model 15.0%
X 3.51 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.50 market consensus · no value · model 59.2%
Double chance
12 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 74.2%
1X 1.05 market consensus · no value · model 85.0%
X2 2.25 market consensus · no value · model 40.8%
Handicap
2 +1 1.84 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.86 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.88 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.81 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.74 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.97 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.74 57.5%
yes 1.97 50.8%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet
12 1.23 81.3%
1x 1.05 95.2%
x2 2.25 44.4%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.12 47.2%
X 1.98 50.5%
7.50 13.3%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.95 51.3%
Under 1 1.76 56.8%
Match center
Independiente de La Chorrera
L
26.07 21:15 UTC Panama: LPF - Apertura Standings
Independiente de La Chorrera 0:1 Veraguas
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
0.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
0 Points
Herrera
W
26.07 19:00 UTC Panama: LPF - Apertura Standings
Herrera 1:0 Union Cocle
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
3 Points