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CONCACAF Central American Cup. Group stage
CONCACAF Central American Cup. Group stage
07.08.2026 03:00 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
07.08.2026 03:00 UTC
Finished

CONCACAF Central American Cup. Group stage

Motagua - FAS

Football
M
Motagua
1 : 0
Finished
F
FAS

Motagua take on FAS on August 7, 2026 in the CONCACAF Central American Cup. Group stage.

Recent form (W-D-L): Motagua 3-2-0, FAS 4-0-1. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 47% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Motagua — 47%

Pure model vs market (1 · Motagua): model 57% · market 46% Δ +11 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Motagua46.9%
X · draw27.3%
2 · FAS25.8%

Model estimate: win Motagua 46.9%, draw 27.3%, win FAS 25.8%. Model favourite — Motagua.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Motagua (odds1.74) Score 2:1 confidence 57% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Model backs Motagua (Gon): probability 57% vs 57% on the line (odds 1.74)
  • • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Motagua - FAS August 7, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Motagua.

Line favourite Fonbet: Motagua. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.02 / X 7.40 / 2 3.90
  • Glicko: Motagua 46.9% / X 27.3% / FAS 25.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.9% 5 books · best price +14.2%
1 46.2%
X 27.7%
2 26.1%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

CONCACAF Central American Cup
League table
Motagua
#16 ptsGP 22-0-06:0
FAS
#130 ptsGP 10-0-10:1
Best price across 12 books
1 2.10 10Bet
X 3.32 Marathonbet
2 3.90 Unibet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Motagua
45%
2.25
Draw
28%
7.40
FAS
27%
31.00
Handicap
Motagua (0)
59%
1.63
FAS (0)
41%
11.50
Total
Over 2.5
43%
11.50
Under 2.5
57%
1.63
Both teams to score
Yes
47%
4.80
No
53%
1.76

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Motagua 1 : 1 FAS
11.97
X3.32
23.41

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:2/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated04.08.2026 04:04 UTC
1 64% ✓ favourite
X 18%
2 19%
Score2:0 Total goals: Under 3.0 BTTS:No Bet:1
Per AI data Form:VVNDV / VVVPD H2H: 1-0 Injuries:Romario Key:Home_field_advantage
Claude updated04.08.2026 04:08 UTC
1 56% ✓ favourite
X 24%
2 20%
Score1:0 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:Double chance 1X (Motagua ne proigraet), spravedlivyy kef 1.25

AI consensus:1

AI 1 X 2 Score Total goals BTTS Bet
Google AI 64% 18% 19% 2:0 Under 3.0 No
Claude 56% 24% 20% 1:0 Under 2.5 No Double chance 1X (Motagua ne proigraet), spravedlivyy kef 1.25

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center
Start 07.08.2026 03:00 UTC
Market 1 71.5% @ 1.02 / X 9.8% @ 7.40 / 2 18.7% @ 3.90
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Motagua 60%
📐 Math model Motagua 47%
💹 Market Motagua 46%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Motagua - FAS

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Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line Overview
More needed
Form championat, soccer365, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 46.9% fact: home hit / ROI 125.0% / Brier 0.424 / LogLoss 0.758
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 46.9% fact: home hit / ROI 125.0% / Brier 0.424 / LogLoss 0.758
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Motagua 46.2% 46.9% market and model agree
Draw 27.7% 27.3% draw risk
FAS 26.1% 25.8%
1X2: 5 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 46.9% / 27.3% / 25.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,764 / 1,500 Motagua / FAS
RD 291 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,182-2,347 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.46 market consensus · no value · model 25.8%
X 7.40 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 46.9%
Double chance
12 1.05 Fonbet · no value · model 72.7%
1X 1.12 Fonbet · no value · model 74.2%
X2 1.66 market consensus · no value · model 53.1%
Handicap
2 +1 1.54 market consensus · line only
2 0 2.25 market consensus · line only
1 -1 2.33 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.11 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.13 Fonbet · line only
Yes 4.80 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet Leon
no 1.13 88.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.76 56.8%
yes 4.80 20.8% 1.93 51.8% 1.93 51.8% 1.96 51.0%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet
12 1.27 78.7% 1.29 77.5% 1.05 95.2% 1.23 81.3% 1.23 81.3%
1x 1.32 75.8% 1.34 74.6% 1.12 89.3% 1.16 86.2% 1.16 86.2%
x2 1.54 64.9% 1.57 63.7% 10.50 9.5% 1.76 56.8% 1.76 56.8%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.63 38.0%
X 2.03 49.3%
4.22 23.7%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 2.03 49.3%
Under 1 1.70 58.8%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-0-0, avg 1.0 gls
2026-08-07 · Motagua 1:0 SK FAS
Source: ruscore

Odds · 1 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.62 (Fonbet) · X 3.45 (Fonbet) · 2 4.9 (Fonbet)
Bookmaker1X2
Fonbet 1.62 3.45 4.9
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Motagua
W W D D W
2026-08-02 Liga Nacional, Apertura 26/27
Motagua FC Juticalpa 0:3 Motagua
2026-07-29 CONCACAF Central American Cup 2026, Group D
Motagua Verdes San Ignacio 0:5 Motagua
2026-05-24 Liga Nacional, Clausura 2026, Playoffs
Motagua Motagua 0:0 Marathon
2026-05-22 Liga Nacional, Clausura 2026, Playoffs
Motagua Marathon 1:1 Motagua
2026-05-19 Liga Nacional, Clausura 2026, Triangulares Group B
Motagua Motagua 2:1 Policia Nacional
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
2.2 Scored
0.4 Conceded
11 Points
FAS
W L W W W
2026-08-02 Primera Division 26/27, Apertura
Inca 0:4 FAS FAS
2026-07-31 Primera Division 26/27, Apertura
Isidro Metapan 2:0 FAS FAS
2026-07-25 Primera Division 26/27, Apertura
FAS 3:1 Municipal Limeno FAS
2026-05-24 Primera Division, Clausura 2026, Playoffs
Aguila San Miguel 0:3 FAS FAS
2026-05-18 Primera Division, Clausura 2026, Playoffs
FAS 2:0 Municipal Limeno FAS
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.4 Scored
0.6 Conceded
12 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyMotagua - FAS

Motagua
0 matches total
FAS
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history