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CONMEBOL Libertadores
CONMEBOL Libertadores World
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
25.09.2025 00:30 UTC
Finished

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Palmeiras - River Plate

World Football
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
3 : 1
Finished
River Plate
River Plate

Palmeiras meet River Plate on September 25, 2025 in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, World.

Recent form (W-D-L): Palmeiras 3-1-0, River Plate 1-2-1. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. The market favourite is Palmeiras at roughly 51%. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Palmeiras - River Plate September 25, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Palmeiras.

Line favourite market consensus: Palmeiras. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.85 / X 3.26 / 2 4.65
  • 1X2 market: Palmeiras 50.9% / X 28.8% / River Plate 20.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 58.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.7% 13 books · best price +2.2%
1 50.9%
X 29.0%
2 20.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.6%
Over 2.5 41.5%
Under 2.5 58.5%

Odds source: consensus of 13 books (10Bet, 188Bet, 1xBet, Bet365, Betano, Betfair). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 25.09.2025 00:30 UTC
Market 1 50.9% @ 1.85 / X 28.9% @ 3.26 / 2 20.2% @ 4.65
Match center

Palmeiras - River Plate

Form 4/4 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.65 market consensus · line only
X 3.26 market consensus · line only
1 1.85 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.94 market consensus · line only
12 1.32 market consensus · line only
1X 1.19 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.00 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.50 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.49 market consensus · line only
2 +1 8.60 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.28 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.62 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.71 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.06 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.84 54.4% 1.75 57.1% 1.90 52.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.88 53.2% 1.87 53.5%
X 3.25 30.8% 3.40 29.4% 3.36 29.8% 3.20 31.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.10 32.3%
4.85 20.6% 4.60 21.7% 4.56 21.9% 4.75 21.1% 5.00 20.0% 4.60 21.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle Superbet
no 1.73 57.8% 1.62 61.7% 1.71 58.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.78 56.2% 1.65 60.6% 1.70 58.8% 1.78 56.2% 1.73 57.8%
yes 2.00 50.0% 2.27 44.1% 2.04 49.0% 2.00 50.0% 1.98 50.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.03 49.3% 2.08 48.1% 2.00 50.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet Pinnacle
draw_away 1.90 52.6% 1.92 52.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.98 50.5% 1.93 51.8% 1.99 50.3%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.31 76.3% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5%
home_draw 1.20 83.3% 1.21 82.6% 1.18 84.8% 1.21 82.6% 1.20 83.3% 1.20 83.3%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.08 92.6% 1.05 95.2%
Over 0.75 1.06 94.3%
Over 1.0 1.08 92.6%
Over 1.25 1.24 80.7%
Over 1.5 1.42 70.4% 1.39 71.9%
Over 1.75 1.50 66.7%
Over 2.0 1.80 55.6%
Over 2.5 2.25 44.4%
Over 3.5 4.33 23.1%
Over 4.5 8.50 11.8%
Under 0.5 7.50 13.3%
Under 1.5 2.80 35.7%
Under 2.0 2.09 47.9%
Under 2.5 1.62 61.7%
Under 3.5 1.20 83.3%
Under 4.5 1.06 94.3%
Match center
Palmeiras
W D W W
18.09 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Palmeiras 2:1 River Plate
22.08 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Palmeiras 0:0 UniversitarioUniversitario
29.05 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Palmeiras 6:0 Sporting CristalSporting Cristal
15.05 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Palmeiras 2:0 BolívarBolívar
3 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.5 Scored
0.3 Conceded
10 Points
River Plate
L D D W
18.09 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
River Plate 1:2 PalmeirasPalmeiras
22.08 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
River Plate 1:1 Libertad AsuncionLibertad Asuncion
28.05 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
River Plate 1:1 UniversitarioUniversitario
16.05 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
River Plate 6:2 Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle
1 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
2.3 Scored
1.5 Conceded
5 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyPalmeiras - River Plate

Palmeiras
1 matches total
River Plate
Palmeiras: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
River Plate: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Palmeiras 2:1 (18.09 00:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (2:1, 18.09 00:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 2

Match history

18.09 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Palmeiras
2:1
River Plate