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CONMEBOL Libertadores
CONMEBOL Libertadores World
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
25.09.2025 22:00 UTC
Finished

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Sao Paulo - LDU de Quito

World Football
Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo
0 : 1
Finished
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito

Sao Paulo meet LDU de Quito on September 25, 2025 in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, World.

Recent form (W-D-L): Sao Paulo 1-2-1, LDU de Quito 3-0-1. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. The bookmaker line makes Sao Paulo the favourite at about 69%. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sao Paulo - LDU de Quito September 25, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Sao Paulo.

Line favourite market consensus: Sao Paulo. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.36 / X 4.43 / 2 10.16
  • 1X2 market: Sao Paulo 69.3% / X 21.3% / LDU de Quito 9.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 56.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.5% 7 books · best price +2.2%
1 69.2%
X 21.5%
2 9.3%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%
Over 2.5 43.9%
Under 2.5 56.1%

Odds source: consensus of 7 books (188Bet, 1xBet, Bet365, Marathonbet, Pinnacle, SStats Consensus). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 25.09.2025 22:00 UTC
Market 1 69.4% @ 1.36 / X 21.3% @ 4.43 / 2 9.3% @ 10.16
Match center

Sao Paulo - LDU de Quito

Form 4/4 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 9.17 market consensus · line only
X 4.43 market consensus · line only
1 1.36 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 3.11 market consensus · line only
12 1.22 market consensus · line only
1X 1.06 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.14 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.28 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 7.00 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.37 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.17 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.70 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.48 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.55 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Marathonbet Pinnacle SStats Consensus
1.35 74.1% 1.39 71.9% 1.38 72.5% 1.37 73.0% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5%
X 4.35 23.0% 4.46 22.4% 4.33 23.1% 4.40 22.7% 4.44 22.5% 4.44 22.5%
9.00 11.1% 10.30 9.7% 9.00 11.1% 10.25 9.8% 11.52 8.7% 11.52 8.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Marathonbet Pinnacle William Hill
no 1.45 69.0% 1.49 67.1% 1.50 66.7% 1.48 67.6% 1.50 66.7% 1.44 69.4%
yes 2.72 36.8% 2.47 40.5% 2.50 40.0% 2.47 40.5% 2.64 37.9% 2.50 40.0%

Double chance

Outcome 1xBet Bet365 Marathonbet Pinnacle SStats Consensus William Hill
draw_away 3.06 32.7% 3.00 33.3% 3.08 32.5% 3.22 31.1% 3.22 31.1% 3.10 32.3%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.21 82.6% 1.24 80.7% 1.24 80.7% 1.20 83.3%
home_draw 1.05 95.2% 1.07 93.5% 1.04 96.2% 1.06 94.3% 1.06 94.3% 1.06 94.3%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.25 1.19 84.0%
Over 1.5 1.33 75.2%
Over 1.75 1.43 69.9%
Over 2.0 1.58 63.3%
Over 2.25 1.98 50.5% 1.86 53.8%
Over 2.5 2.17 46.1%
Over 2.75 2.47 40.5%
Over 3.0 3.08 32.5%
Over 3.25 3.46 28.9%
Over 3.5 3.72 26.9%
Over 3.75 4.75 21.1%
Over 4.0 6.70 14.9%
Over 4.25 7.10 14.1%
Under 2.25 1.91 52.4%
Match center
Sao Paulo
L D W D
18.09 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sao Paulo 0:2 LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito
20.08 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sao Paulo 1:1 Atletico Nacional
27.05 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sao Paulo 2:1 Talleres Cordoba
15.05 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sao Paulo 1:1 Libertad AsuncionLibertad Asuncion
1 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.3 Conceded
5 Points
LDU de Quito
W W W L
18.09 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
LDU de Quito 2:0 Sao Paulo
21.08 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
LDU de Quito 2:0 BotafogoBotafogo
29.05 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
LDU de Quito 3:0 Central Cordoba de Santiago
16.05 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
LDU de Quito 0:2 FlamengoFlamengo
3 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.8 Scored
0.5 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historySao Paulo - LDU de Quito

Sao Paulo
1 matches total
LDU de Quito
Sao Paulo: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
LDU de Quito: 1 (100%)
Biggest win LDU de Quito 0:2 (18.09 22:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (0:2, 18.09 22:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 0

Match history

18.09 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sao Paulo
0:2
LDU de Quito