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Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
21.07.2026 22:30 UTC Match prediction
21.07.2026 22:30 UTC
Finished

Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg

America de Cali - Real Cartagena

Football
America de Cali
America de Cali
2 : 1
Finished
Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction America de Cali - Real Cartagena July 21, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: America de Cali. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.03 / X 4.70 / 2 7.80

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 31.2%
1 74.0%
X 16.2%
2 9.8%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Copa Colombia
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
America de Cali
W-D-L 4-2-4 Scored 1.44 Conceded 1.20 xG 1.26 xGA 1.10
Real Cartagena
W-D-L 5-1-4 Scored 1.30 Conceded 1.42 xG 1.11 xGA 1.14

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
America de Cali
Rating 1687
Real Cartagena
Rating 1647

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

America de Cali 1 : 1 Real Cartagena
11.37
X4.40
26.96

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:3/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Claude, Qwen

Google AI updated21.07.2026 23:39 UTC
1 62% ✓ favourite
X 24%
2 14%
Score2:0 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:1
Per AI data H2H: 1-0
Kimi updated21.07.2026 23:42 UTC
1 55% ✓ favourite
X 28%
2 17%
Score1:0 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:1
GLM 5.2 updated21.07.2026 23:43 UTC
1 58% ✓ favourite
X 24%
2 18%
Score2:1 Total goals: Over 2.5 BTTS:Yes Bet:1X
Per AI data H2H: 3-1-2

AI consensus:1

AI 1 X 2 Score Total goals BTTS Bet
Google AI 62% 24% 14% 2:0 Under 2.5 No
Kimi 55% 28% 17% 1:0 Under 2.5 No
GLM 5.2 58% 24% 18% 2:1 Over 2.5 Yes 1X

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Match center
Start 21.07.2026 22:30 UTC
Match center

America de Cali - Real Cartagena

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line home - 73.0% fact: home hit / ROI 47.0% / Brier 0.125 / LogLoss 0.314
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line home - 73.0% fact: home hit / ROI 47.0% / Brier 0.125 / LogLoss 0.314
Glicko-2: public filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line home - 73.0% fact: home hit / ROI 47.0% / Brier 0.125 / LogLoss 0.314
Glicko-2: precision filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line home - 73.0% fact: home hit / ROI 47.0% / Brier 0.125 / LogLoss 0.314
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 7.22 market consensus · line only
X 4.70 Fonbet · line only
1 1.03 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
12 1.15 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.01 Fonbet · line only
X2 7.70 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -1 1.52 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 2.07 market consensus · line only
1 -1 2.35 Fonbet · line only
1 0 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.73 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 2.00 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.40 Fonbet · line only
Yes 2.75 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.40 71.4% 1.96 51.0%
yes 2.75 36.4% 1.75 57.1%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.17 85.5% 1.18 84.8% 1.15 87.0%
1x 1.07 93.5% 1.07 93.5% 1.01 99.0%
x2 2.67 37.5% 2.60 38.5% 7.70 13.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
1.87 53.5%
X 2.40 41.7%
6.20 16.1%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.57 63.7%
Under 1 2.27 44.1%