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Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
21.07.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction
21.07.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg

Atletico Nacional - Tigres Monterrey

Football
A
Atletico Nacional
2 : 3
Finished
T
Tigres Monterrey

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atletico Nacional - Tigres Monterrey July 21, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Atletico Nacional. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.17 / X 5.10 / 2 3.40

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 34.5%
1 63.6%
X 14.6%
2 21.9%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Copa Colombia
Best price across 9 books
1 1.23 Betano
X 7.00 Bet365
2 15.50 10Bet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Atletico Nacional
W-D-L 7-3-0 Scored 1.99 Conceded 0.50 xG 1.60 xGA 1.02
Tigres Monterrey
W-D-L 3-1-6 Scored 0.98 Conceded 1.84 xG 0.86 xGA 1.47

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Atletico Nacional
Rating 1848
Tigres Monterrey
Rating 1428

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Atletico Nacional 1 : 1 Tigres Monterrey
11.19
X5.75
212.00

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 21.07.2026 19:00 UTC
Match center

Atletico Nacional - Tigres Monterrey

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.40 market consensus · line only
X 5.10 Fonbet · line only
1 1.17 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
12 1.12 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.01 Fonbet · line only
X2 4.20 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -1 3.25 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.58 market consensus · line only
2 0 2.30 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 2.28 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 6.70 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.06 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.03 Fonbet · line only
Yes 9.00 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.03 97.1% 1.64 61.0%
yes 9.00 11.1% 2.17 46.1%

Double chance

Outcome Betcity Fonbet
12 1.37 73.0% 1.12 89.3%
1x 1.27 78.7% 1.01 99.0%
x2 1.55 64.5% 4.20 23.8%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.12 32.1%
X 1.94 51.6%
4.28 23.4%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.56 64.1%
Over 1 2.37 42.2%
Under 0.5 2.33 42.9%
Under 1 1.54 64.9%