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Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
21.07.2026 22:00 UTC Match prediction
21.07.2026 22:00 UTC
Finished

Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg

Deportivo Pasto - Bogota

Football
D
Deportivo Pasto
0 : 1
Finished
B
Bogota

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Deportivo Pasto - Bogota July 21, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Bogota. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.45 / X 4.30 / 2 1.05

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 87.5%
1 36.8%
X 12.4%
2 50.8%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Copa Colombia
Best price across 13 books
1 1.45 Bet365
X 4.70 Unibet
2 9.00 Unibet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Deportivo Pasto
W-D-L 3-3-4 Scored 1.26 Conceded 1.30 xG 1.43 xGA 0.84
Bogota
W-D-L 1-3-6 Scored 0.59 Conceded 1.82 xG 0.87 xGA 1.63

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Deportivo Pasto
Rating 1462
Bogota
Rating 1367

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Deportivo Pasto 3 : 1 Bogota
11.37
X4.25
27.39

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:3/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Claude, Qwen

Google AI updated21.07.2026 23:15 UTC
1 65% ✓ favourite
X 23%
2 12%
Score2:0 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:Win Deportivo Pasto (1)
Per AI data H2H: 1-0
Kimi updated21.07.2026 23:18 UTC
1 52% ✓ favourite
X 28%
2 20%
Score1:0 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:1
Per AI data H2H: 3-2-1
GLM 5.2 updated21.07.2026 23:19 UTC
1 55% ✓ favourite
X 30%
2 15%
Score1:0 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:1X
Per AI data H2H: 3-2

AI consensus:1

AI 1 X 2 Score Total goals BTTS Bet
Google AI 65% 23% 12% 2:0 Under 2.5 No Win Deportivo Pasto (1)
Kimi 52% 28% 20% 1:0 Under 2.5 No
GLM 5.2 55% 30% 15% 1:0 Under 2.5 No 1X

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Match center
Start 21.07.2026 22:00 UTC
Match center

Deportivo Pasto - Bogota

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit the draw is not published yet: the draw model is being refined Data: line draw - 55.9% fact: away missed / Brier 0.752 / LogLoss 1.067
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit the draw is not published yet: the draw model is being refined Data: line draw - 55.9% fact: away missed / Brier 0.752 / LogLoss 1.067
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.05 Fonbet · line only
X 4.30 Fonbet · line only
1 1.42 market consensus · line only
Double chance
12 1.17 Fonbet · line only
1X 6.40 Fonbet · line only
X2 1.27 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -1 1.01 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 5.70 Fonbet · line only
2 0 3.75 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 1.65 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.68 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.18 Fonbet · line only
Yes 4.10 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.18 84.8% 1.82 55.0%
yes 4.10 24.4% 1.89 52.9%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.18 84.8% 1.17 85.5% 1.17 85.5%
1x 1.05 95.2% 1.07 93.5% 6.40 15.6%
x2 2.75 36.4% 2.70 37.0% 1.27 78.7%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
1.90 52.6%
X 2.29 43.7%
6.70 14.9%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.68 59.5%
Under 1 2.06 48.5%
Match center

Full head-to-head historyDeportivo Pasto - Bogota

Deportivo Pasto
0 matches total
Bogota
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history