Match center
Start
31.07.2026 18:00 UTC
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31.07.2026 18:00 UTC
Finished
Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Newells Old Boys - Boca Juniors
N
Newells Old Boys
1
:
1
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Newells Old Boys — 54%
Model estimate: win Newells Old Boys 53.9%, draw 19.3%, win Boca Juniors 26.8%. Model favourite — Newells Old Boys.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Newells Old Boys - Boca Juniors July 31, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like draw.
Line favourite Fonbet: draw. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 12.50 / X 1.10 / 2 10.00
- Glicko: Newells Old Boys 53.9% / X 19.3% / Boca Juniors 26.8%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 8.9%
1
7.3%
X
83.5%
2
9.2%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1
1.68
↑ 12.50
1X2 X
3.25
↓ 1.10
1X2 2
5.50
↑ 10.00
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Statistics and model
Liga Profesional ArgentinaLeague table
Newells Old Boys
ARRAY
Boca Juniors
ARRAY
Best price
across 10 books
1
3.60
Betano
X
3.20
Betfair
2
2.27
Betano
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Newells Old Boys
W-D-L 4-4-2
Scored 1.10
Conceded 1.19
xG 0.88
xGA 1.26
Corners 3.8
Boca Juniors
W-D-L 5-4-1
Scored 1.40
Conceded 0.81
xG 1.18
xGA 0.83
Corners 4.8
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Model form (Glicko)
Newells Old Boys
Rating 1463
xG 0.98
Win 29%
Boca Juniors
Rating 1611
xG 1.24
Win 42%
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
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Match center
Newells Old Boys - Boca Juniors
Form
2/1
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
Movement
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:1
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 53.9% fact: draw
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.014 / LogLoss 1.645
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 53.9% fact: draw
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.014 / LogLoss 1.645
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Newells Old Boys
7.4%
53.9%
Glicko contrarian
Draw
83.5%
19.3%
draw risk
Boca Juniors
9.2%
26.8%
market favourite
1X2: 1 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
53.9% / 19.3% / 26.8%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,500 / 1,461
Newell's Old Boys / Boca Juniors
RD
350 / 250
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
800-2,200 / 961-1,962
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
10.00
Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 26.8%
X
1.10
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
Double chance
12
5.50
Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 80.7%
1X
1.03
Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 73.2%
X2
1.02
Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 46.1%
Handicap
2 -1
1.53
Fonbet · line only
2 0
1.60
Fonbet · line only
1 -1
2.35
Fonbet · line only
1 0
2.20
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
8.50
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
1.04
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.16
Fonbet · line only
Yes
4.40
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| no | 1.16 86.2% |
| yes | 4.40 22.7% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 12 | 5.50 18.2% |
| 1x | 1.03 97.1% |
| x2 | 1.02 98.0% |
Handicap
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 1.01 99.0% | |
| 2.35 42.6% | |
| 10.50 9.5% | |
| 11.50 8.7% | |
| 12.00 8.3% | |
| 2.20 45.5% | |
| 11.00 9.1% | |
| 1.53 65.4% | |
| 1.01 99.0% | |
| 1.01 99.0% | |
| 1.01 99.0% | |
| 1.60 62.5% |
Total
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 5.20 19.2% |
| Over 2 | 11.00 9.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 8.50 11.8% |
| Over 3 | 4.60 21.7% |
| Over 3.5 | 11.00 9.1% |
| Over 4.5 | 11.00 9.1% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.11 90.1% |
| Under 2 | 1.01 99.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 1.04 96.2% |
| Under 3 | 1.14 87.7% |
| Under 3.5 | 1.01 99.0% |
| Under 4.5 | 1.01 99.0% |
Match center
Newells Old Boys
L
L
Newells Old Boys
0:1
Independente
Independente
Newells Old Boys
0:1
Taleres Kordoba
0
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
0.0
Scored
1.0
Conceded
0
Points
Boca Juniors
L
Boca Juniors
0:3
Deportivo Riestra
Deportivo Riestra
0
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
0.0
Scored
3.0
Conceded
0
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyNewells Old Boys - Boca Juniors
Newells Old Boys
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form