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Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
01.08.2026 20:00 UTC Match prediction
01.08.2026 20:00 UTC
Finished

Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg

Newells Old Boys - Boca Juniors

Football
Newells Old Boys
Newells Old Boys
1 : 1
Finished
Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors

Newells Old Boys go head-to-head with Boca Juniors on August 1, 2026 in the Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg.

Recent form (W-D-L): Newells Old Boys 0-0-2, Boca Juniors 0-0-1. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 30% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Boca Juniors — 50%

1 · Newells Old Boys30.1%
X · draw19.5%
2 · Boca Juniors50.5%

Model estimate: win Newells Old Boys 30.1%, draw 19.5%, win Boca Juniors 50.5%. Model favourite — Boca Juniors.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Boca Juniors (odds2.05) Score 1:2 confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • • liniya na pik P2 5.50→10.00 (udlinilas — rynok dreyfuet vs)
  • • Model backs Boka Khuniors: probability 50% vs 49% on the line (odds 2.05)
  • • edge over the line +2 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1:2.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Newells Old Boys - Boca Juniors August 1, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Boca Juniors.

Line favourite market consensus: Boca Juniors. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.10 / X 3.10 / 2 2.09
  • Glicko: Newells Old Boys 30.1% / X 19.5% / Boca Juniors 50.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.5%
1 23.3%
X 30.9%
2 45.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 1.68 ↑ 12.50
1X2 X 3.25 ↓ 1.10
1X2 2 5.50 ↑ 10.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Liga Profesional Argentina
League table
Newells Old Boys
#2518 ptsGP 184-6-816:28
Boca Juniors
#831 ptsGP 188-7-323:13
Best price across 12 books
1 4.08 Pinnacle
X 3.26 1xBet
2 2.20 Unibet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Newells Old Boys
W-D-L 4-4-2 Scored 1.10 Conceded 1.19 xG 0.88 xGA 1.26 Corners 3.8
Boca Juniors
W-D-L 5-4-1 Scored 1.40 Conceded 0.81 xG 1.18 xGA 0.83 Corners 4.8

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Newells Old Boys
Rating 1457 xG 0.98 Win 29%
Boca Juniors
Rating 1611 xG 1.24 Win 42%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 20:00 UTC
Market 1 23.3% @ 4.10 / X 30.9% @ 3.10 / 2 45.8% @ 2.09
Match center

Newells Old Boys - Boca Juniors

Form 2/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 50.5% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.994 / LogLoss 1.636
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 50.5% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.994 / LogLoss 1.636
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Newells Old Boys 7.4% 30.1%
Draw 83.5% 19.5% draw risk
Boca Juniors 9.2% 50.5% market and model agree
xG - 0.98 : 1.24
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 30.1% / 19.5% / 50.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,278 / 1,461 Newell's Old Boys / Boca Juniors
RD 283 / 250 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 712-1,843 / 961-1,962 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.05 market consensus · weak value +3.5% · model 50.5%
X 3.04 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 4.00 market consensus · no value · model 30.1%
Double chance
12 1.35 market consensus · value +8.7% · model 80.5%
1X 1.73 market consensus · no value · model 49.5%
X2 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 69.9%
Handicap
2 0 1.43 market consensus · line only
1 0 2.69 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.48 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.50 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.65 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.15 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.65 60.6%
yes 2.15 46.5%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.35 74.1% 1.34 74.6%
1x 1.69 59.2% 1.76 56.8%
x2 1.22 82.0% 1.21 82.6%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
4.71 21.2%
X 1.94 51.6%
2.84 35.2%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.55 64.5%
Under 0.5 2.31 43.3%
Match center
Newells Old Boys
L L
30.07 22:15 UTC Argentina: Liga Profesional - Clausura Standings
Newells Old Boys 0:1 IndependenteIndependente
25.07 18:00 UTC Argentina: Liga Profesional - Clausura Standings
Newells Old Boys 0:1 Taleres KordobaTaleres Kordoba
0 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
0.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
0 Points
Boca Juniors
L
26.07 20:30 UTC Argentina: Liga Profesional - Clausura Standings
Boca Juniors 0:3 Deportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
0.0 Scored
3.0 Conceded
0 Points