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Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg
28.07.2026 23:30 UTC Match prediction
28.07.2026 23:30 UTC
Finished

Copa Libertadores. Round of 16. First leg

Tigres Monterrey - Atletico Nacional

Football
T
Tigres Monterrey
1 : 1
Finished
A
Atletico Nacional
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Tigres Monterrey — 43%

Pure model vs market (1 · Tigres Monterrey): model 34% · market 31% Δ +3 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Tigres Monterrey42.6%
X · draw31.2%
2 · Atletico Nacional26.2%

Model estimate: win Tigres Monterrey 42.6%, draw 31.2%, win Atletico Nacional 26.2%. Model favourite — Tigres Monterrey.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Tigres Monterrey (odds1.40) Score 2:1 confidence 55% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs Tigres: probability 55% vs 72% on the line (odds 1.40)
  • • no edge over the line (-16 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Tigres Monterrey - Atletico Nacional July 28, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atletico Nacional.

Line favourite Fonbet: Atletico Nacional. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.17 / X 7.50 / 2 1.10
  • Glicko: Tigres Monterrey 42.6% / X 31.2% / Atletico Nacional 26.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 50.3%
1 30.7%
X 8.9%
2 60.5%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 1.85 ↑ 6.40
1X2 X 3.30 ↓ 1.17
1X2 2 4.10 ↑ 12.50

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Tigres Monterrey 1 : 1 Atletico Nacional
16.44
X4.25
21.41

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Participant opinions
9 predictions Choose an outcome
1 0% 0
X 100% 1
2 0% 0
Double chance 12 1.16 (1)
Total TM 3 1.79 (1)
total_t2_under total_t2_under:2 1.89 (1)
Correct score 1:2 7.40 (2) - 0:3 9.40 (1) - 1:1 8.00 (1)
Match center
Start 28.07.2026 23:30 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
👥 Community Draw 100%
📐 Math model Tigres Monterrey 43%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Tigres Monterrey - Atletico Nacional

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Line 1 source Stavka.tv
Player opinions Stavka.tv 1 combined layer without duplicates
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement
More needed
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
yes Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 42.6% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.724 / LogLoss 1.166
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 42.6% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.724 / LogLoss 1.166
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Tigres Monterrey 43.1% 42.6% market and model agree
Draw 31.7% 31.2% draw risk
Atletico Nacional 25.2% 26.2%
1X2: 5 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 42.6% / 31.2% / 26.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,302 / 1,499 Tigres Monterrey / Atletico Nacional
RD 227 / 270 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 847-1,756 / 959-2,038 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.10 Fonbet · no value · model 26.2%
X 7.50 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.69 market consensus · no value · model 42.6%
Double chance
12 1.06 Fonbet · no value · model 68.8%
1X 5.60 Fonbet · weak value +313.0% · model 73.8%
X2 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 57.4%
Handicap
2 -1 1.76 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.66 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.15 Fonbet · line only
2 0 1.11 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 7.60 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.04 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Yes 2.01 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.01 99.0% 1.75 57.1%
yes 11.00 9.1% 2.01 49.8%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.35 74.1% 1.17 85.5% 1.06 94.3%
1x 1.23 81.3% 2.60 38.5% 5.60 17.9%
x2 1.63 61.4% 1.08 92.6% 1.01 99.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.99 33.4%
X 1.97 50.8%
4.40 22.7%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.56 64.1%
Over 1 2.27 44.1%
Over 1.5 2.33 42.9%
Under 0.5 2.32 43.1%
Under 1 1.59 62.9%
Under 1.5 1.56 64.1%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 0-0-2, avg 2.0 gls
2026-07-29 · Tigres 0:2 Atletiko Nasonal Medelin
2026-07-21 · Tigres 0:2 Atletiko Nasonal Medelin
Source: ruscore

Odds · 1 bookmakers

Best price: 1 3.6 (Liga Stavok) · X 3.35 (Liga Stavok) · 2 1.96 (Liga Stavok)
Bookmaker1X2
Liga Stavok 3.6 3.35 1.96
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Tigres Monterrey
W
21.07 19:00 UTC Colombia: Cup Kolumbii - Pervyy etap - Playoff
Tigres Monterrey 3:2 Atletiko Nasonal
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
3.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
3 Points
Atletico Nacional
L
21.07 19:00 UTC Colombia: Cup Kolumbii - Pervyy etap - Playoff
Atletico Nacional 2:3 Tigres
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
3.0 Conceded
0 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyTigres Monterrey - Atletico Nacional

Tigres Monterrey
1 matches total
Atletico Nacional
Tigres Monterrey: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Atletico Nacional: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Tigres 3:2 (21.07 19:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 5 goals (3:2, 21.07 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

21.07 19:00 UTC Colombia: Cup Kolumbii - Pervyy etap - Playoff
Tigres
3:2
Atletiko Nasonal