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AI verdict
AI pick Parma
win probability ~67%
confidence High
best odds 1.01
Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Parma. Full breakdown below.
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✓ Prematch ready
Prematch data
✓Line
✓Form
✓H2H
✓Prediction
14.08.2026 16:00 UTC
Round of 64
Finished
Italy. Serie B
Parma - Catania
Stadium
Ennio Tardini (Parma, Italy)
Capacity
21 473
2
:
0
Finished
Parma take on Catania on August 14, 2026 in the Italy. Serie B.
Recent form (W-D-L): Parma 1-2-2, Catania 2-2-1. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 67% to win. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Parma — 67%
Model estimate: win Parma 67.3%, draw 19.9%, win Catania 12.7%. Model favourite — Parma.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Parma (odds1.30)
Score 2:0
Under 2.5
(odds2.08) ✓
Handicap H1 -1.5
(odds1.90)
confidence 63%
✓ outcome correct · exact score
- • Model backs Parma: probability 63% vs 77% on the line (odds 1.30)
- • no edge over the line (-14 pp) — informational only
- • Expected score 2:0
- • Total: Under 2.5: model expects a total of ~2 goals
- • at line 2.5 (odds 2.08)
- • Handicap F1 -1.5: score forecast 2:0 (diff +2) covers the line (odds 1.90).
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Parma - Catania August 14, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Parma.
Line favourite Fonbet: Parma. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / X 5.50 / 2 9.10
- Glicko: Parma 67.3% / X 19.9% / Catania 12.7%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.6%
6 books · best price +4.5%
1 ✓ Pick
70.5%
X
18.6%
2
11.0%
Odds source: consensus of 6 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1
1.30
↑ 1.40
1X2 X
5.30
↓ 4.30
1X2 2
8.50
→ 8.50
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Statistics and model
Coppa ItaliaLeague table
Parma
Catania
Best price
across 13 books
1
1.43
Dafabet
X
5.35
Pinnacle
2
8.52
Pinnacle
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Parma
W-D-L 5-3-2
Scored 1.71
Conceded 1.15
xG 1.35
xGA 1.25
Corners 4.7
Catania
W-D-L 4-2-3
Scored 1.31
Conceded 1.22
xG 1.03
xGA 1.51
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
%
Market consensus
Forecast by market
Match result
Parma
69%
1.40
Draw
19%
5.50
Catania
11%
21.00
Total
Over 2.5
54%
9.00
Under 2.5
46%
2.10
Both teams to score
Yes
46%
7.50
No
54%
1.72
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Parma
1
:
1
Catania
11.38
X4.45
28.00
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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Match center
Stadium
Ennio Tardini (Parma, Italy)
Start
14.08.2026 16:00 UTC
Market
1 77.2% @ 1.01 / X 14.2% @ 5.50 / 2 8.6% @ 9.10
Broadcasts
MATCh! Football 1, MEGOGO, Sport Plus Qazaqstan Parma
Capacity
21,473
🥊 Humans vs Machines
👥 Community
Parma 93%
📐 Math model
Parma 67%
💹 Market
Parma 70%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center
Parma - Catania
Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty vstrechi Parma - Kataniya, 14 avgusta 2026. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. Cup Italy po futbolu 2026/27, 1/32 finala. Parma - Kataniya, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matcha.
Lineups
8/2
probable starting lineup
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
8
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
Post-match / SStats
Score
2:0
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 67.3% fact: home
hit / ROI 40.0% / Brier 0.163 / LogLoss 0.396
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 67.3% fact: home
hit / ROI 40.0% / Brier 0.163 / LogLoss 0.396
Glicko-2: public filter
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 67.3% fact: home
hit / ROI 40.0% / Brier 0.163 / LogLoss 0.396
Glicko-2: precision filter
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 67.3% fact: home
hit / ROI 40.0% / Brier 0.163 / LogLoss 0.396
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Parma
68.8%
67.3%
market and model agree
Draw
19.8%
19.9%
draw risk
Catania
11.4%
12.7%
1X2: 6 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
67.3% / 19.9% / 12.7%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,500 / 1,500
Parma / Catania
RD
350 / 350
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
800-2,200 / 800-2,200
strength interval
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
8.26
market consensus · no value · model 12.7%
X
5.50
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.01
Fonbet · no value · model 67.3%
Double chance
12
1.14
Fonbet · no value · model 80.1%
1X
1.02
Fonbet · no value · model 87.3%
X2
2.54
market consensus · no value · model 32.7%
Handicap
2 -1
3.20
Fonbet · line only
1 -1
1.33
Fonbet · line only
1 0
1.01
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
9.00
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
1.05
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.05
Fonbet · line only
Yes
7.50
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Kambi BetMGM | Kambi Unibet | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.05 95.2% | 1.68 59.5% | 1.68 59.5% | 1.72 58.1% |
| yes | 7.50 13.3% | 2.02 49.5% | 2.02 49.5% | 2.05 48.8% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet | Kambi BetMGM | Kambi Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.12 89.3% | 1.13 88.5% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.38 72.5% | 1.38 72.5% |
| 1x | 1.03 97.1% | 1.04 96.2% | 1.02 98.0% | 1.06 94.3% | 1.06 94.3% |
| x2 | 3.30 30.3% | 3.30 30.3% | 14.00 7.1% | 1.78 56.2% | 1.78 56.2% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.84 54.4% | |
| X | 2.42 41.3% |
| 8.10 12.4% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.72 58.1% |
| Under 1 | 2.00 50.0% |
Match center
4-4-2
Parma
Formation 4-4-2
Probable starting lineup
Head coach
Karlos Kuesta
Catania
Probable starting lineup
Head coach
D. Toscano
Parma
No home-team absences found in the prematch data.
Catania
No away-team absences found in the prematch data.
Formations
4-4-2 /
SStats
Market - Form - H2H - Table
Match center
Parma
Team form
Catania
10
Matches
10
7
Goals
10
0.7
Per match
1.0
3
Wins
3
2
Draws
4
5
Losses
3
Form & head-to-head
H2H 1-0-0, avg 2.0 gls
2026-08-14 · Parma 2:0 Kataniya
Source: ruscore
Odds · 5 bookmakers
Best price: 1 1.32 (Liga Stavok) · X 5.4 (Betcity) · 2 9.1 (Betcity)
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 1.3 | 5.2 | 9 |
| Winline | 1.31 | 5 | 8.4 |
| Fonbet | 1.3 | 5.2 | 9 |
| Betcity | 1.3 | 5.4 | 9.1 |
| Liga Stavok | 1.32 | 5.2 | 8.6 |
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Match stats
35
Ball possession
65
12
Vsego udarov
8
9
Shots on target
3
1
Shots off target
3
7
Udary ot vorot
4
2
Blokirovannye udary
2
8
Shtrafnye
19
3
Corners
5
1
Offsides
2
13
Auty
14
3
Saves
7
1
Cards total
2
1
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
0
Second yellows
0
0
Travmy
0
5
Substitutions
5
Source: ruscore
Parma
L
D
D
D
W
Parma
Parma 0:2 Sampdoria
Parma
Parma 1:1 Iraklis Thessaloniki
Parma
Parma 1:1 Arezzo
Parma
Sassuolo 0:0 Parma
Parma
Parma 1:0 Sassuolo
1
Wins
3
Draws
1
Losses
0.6
Scored
0.8
Conceded
6
Points
Catania
D
W
L
D
D
Vicenza 1:1 Catania
Catania
Catania 2:1 Ascoli
Catania
Ascoli 4:0 Catania
Catania
Catania 3:3 Lecco
Catania
Lecco 0:0 Catania
Catania
1
Wins
3
Draws
1
Losses
1.2
Scored
1.8
Conceded
6
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head history: Parma - Catania
Parma
8
matches total
Parma: 2 (25%)
Draws:5 (62.5%)
Catania: 1 (12.5%)
Biggest win
Parma 2:0 (07.10.12, 07:00)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
6 goals (3:3, 21.12.11, 12:45)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
3:3 (21.12.11, 12:45)
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Parma
0:0
Catania
Parma
0:0
Catania
Parma
1:2
Catania
Parma
1:1
Catania
Parma
2:0
Catania
Parma
1:1
Catania
Parma
3:3
Catania
Parma
2:0
Catania
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1
Parma
Team 2
Catania
Parma
Team comparison
Catania
0
Games
1
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
0
Scored
1
0
Conceded
1
0
Points
3
0
Attacks
0
0
Dangerous attacks
0
0
Big chances
0
0
Shots on goal
0
0
Udary v stvor
0
Matches in history
17
Biggest draw
3:3
Highest-scoring match
3:3
Seriya A
14 / 2 / 7 / 5 / 13 / 19
Cup Italy
3 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 3 / 3
Parma Kataniya 0 Games 1 0 Wins 1 0 Draws 0 Losses 0 Scored 1 0 Conceded 1 0 Points 3 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 Warnings 0 Sendoffs 0 Goly Simone Lontani 1:0 19' Simone Lontani 2:0 36' Glavnye trenery Glavnye trenery Karlos Kuesta Glavnye trenery No dannykh Rezultaty golosovaniya Result v osnovnoe vremya 58% 18% 24% Double chance 38% 41% 21% Materialy po prognozam «Yuventus» — «Parma». Prognoz: prodolzhaem stavit protiv Krishtianu Ronaldu «Parma» — «Roma». Prognoz: Dzheko and Zhervino ne stanut tyanut s pervym golom «Parma» — «Yuventus». Prognoz: Ronaldu and Zhervino nachnut sezon yarko CHAMP('pageBlockSlider'); CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1329608' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical'); Cup Italy Turnirnaya Standings
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Parma vs Catania?
By the PropickAI model, Parma is favoured — about 67% win probability.
What does PropickAI predict for Parma vs Catania?
The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Parma. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.
When does Parma vs Catania start?
August 14, 2026.