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Costa Rica. 2nd Division
Costa Rica. 2nd Division
02.08.2026 20:00 UTC Match prediction
02.08.2026 20:00 UTC
Finished

Costa Rica. 2nd Division

CS Uruguay - AD Carmelita

Football
CS Uruguay
CS Uruguay
2 : 0
Finished
A
AD Carmelita

CS Uruguay meet AD Carmelita on August 2, 2026 in the Costa Rica. 2nd Division.

PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 47% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 CS Uruguay — 47%

Pure model vs market (1 · CS Uruguay): model 44% · market 72% Δ −28 pp model estimates below the market

1 · CS Uruguay46.7%
X · draw27.4%
2 · AD Carmelita25.9%

Model estimate: win CS Uruguay 46.7%, draw 27.4%, win AD Carmelita 25.9%. Model favourite — CS Uruguay.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1CS Uruguay (odds2.36) Score 1:0 confidence 50% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Model backs Uruguay Koronado: probability 50% vs 42% on the line (odds 2.36)
  • • edge over the line +8 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction CS Uruguay - AD Carmelita August 2, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like CS Uruguay.

Line favourite Fonbet: CS Uruguay. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.10 / X 4.30 / 2 8.50
  • Glicko: CS Uruguay 46.7% / X 27.4% / AD Carmelita 25.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 25.9%
1 72.2%
X 18.5%
2 9.3%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Liga de Ascenso
Best price across 13 books
1 2.00 Superbet
X 3.40 Unibet
2 3.95 Unibet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
CS Uruguay
W-D-L 3-2-5 Scored 1.40 Conceded 1.80 xG 1.33 xGA 1.50
AD Carmelita
W-D-L 2-3-5 Scored 0.90 Conceded 1.40 xG 1.19 xGA 1.35

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
CS Uruguay
Rating 1522 xG 1.43 Win 47%
AD Carmelita
Rating 1497 xG 1.01 Win 27%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

CS Uruguay 2 : 1 AD Carmelita
11.91
X3.22
23.74

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 02.08.2026 20:00 UTC
Market 1 72.2% @ 1.10 / X 18.5% @ 4.30 / 2 9.3% @ 8.50
Match center

CS Uruguay - AD Carmelita

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line
More needed
Form championat, soccer365, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
CS Uruguay 46.9% 46.7% market and model agree
Draw 27.7% 27.4% draw risk
AD Carmelita 25.4% 25.9%
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 46.7% / 27.4% / 25.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Uruguay Coronado / Carmelita
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 8.50 Fonbet · no value · model 25.9%
X 4.30 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.10 Fonbet · no value · model 46.7%
Double chance
12 1.17 Fonbet · no value · model 72.6%
1X 1.05 Fonbet · no value · model 74.1%
X2 4.90 Fonbet · weak value +161.0% · model 53.3%
Handicap
2 +1 1.47 market consensus · line only
2 0 6.70 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 2.48 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.07 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.60 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.43 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.89 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.81 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.89 52.9%
yes 1.81 55.3%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.27 78.7% 1.30 76.9% 1.17 85.5%
1x 1.23 81.3% 1.24 80.7% 1.05 95.2%
x2 1.72 58.1% 1.74 57.5% 4.90 20.4%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.52 39.7%
X 2.03 49.3%
4.53 22.1%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.91 52.4%
Under 1 1.79 55.9%
Match center

Full head-to-head historyCS Uruguay - AD Carmelita

CS Uruguay
0 matches total
AD Carmelita
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history