Who is the favourite in HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka?

By the PropickAI model, HNK Rijeka is favoured — about 56% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to HNK Rijeka. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka?

Live odds for HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

AI verdict

AI pick HNK Rijeka win probability ~56% confidence Medium best odds 1.64

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to HNK Rijeka. Full breakdown below.

Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →

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Croatia: Khnl

31.08.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

31.08.2026 19:00 UTC

Finished

Croatia: Khnl

HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka — Football prediction

Football

Referee Ante Terzić Season KhNL 2026/2027 KhNK Goritsa

HNK Gorica

0 : 0

Finished

HNK Rijeka

Gorica face Rijeka in football, in Croatia: Khnl, on 31 August 2026. Our Glicko-2 rating model leans to Rijeka: roughly 56% to win. Sportsbook prices (3 books) put that result at roughly 56%. The model puts the chance of a draw at 24%.

Latest form: Gorica 0 won, 0 drawn and 2 lost; Rijeka 1 won, 0 drawn and 0 lost. On the Glicko scale it is 1221 for Gorica against 1600 for Rijeka - a gap of 379 points.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is low. The favourite's edge is moderate, so a protective market (double chance or draw-no-bet) is steadier than a single outright bet. Key markers: an edge of 379 Glicko rating points, the model's 56% for Rijeka. Read on for team stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI AI prediction. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 HNK Rijeka — 56%

1 · HNK Gorica20.1%

X · draw24.3%

2 · HNK Rijeka ✓ Pick55.6%

Model estimate: win HNK Gorica 20.1%, draw 24.3%, win HNK Rijeka 55.6%. Model favourite — HNK Rijeka.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick strong

Double chance — HNK Rijeka or draw 1.12

Model confidence 82% ~82% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction HNK Gorica - HNK Rijeka August 31, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like HNK Rijeka.

Line favourite market consensus: HNK Rijeka. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 5.60 / X 3.69 / 2 1.64
Glicko: HNK Gorica 20.1% / X 24.3% / HNK Rijeka 55.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 13.3% 3 books · best price +3.8%

1 19.6%

X 24.5%

2 ✓ Pick 55.9%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Model O/U (market-implied)

Total 2.50 3 books

Over 2.50 49.2%

Under 2.50 50.8%

Market-implied probability from the frozen pre-kickoff consensus line — reference, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

HNL

League table

HNK Gorica

#100 ptsGP 40-0-42:9

HNK Rijeka

#56 ptsGP 32-0-15:5

Best price across 13 books

1 5.90 Pinnacle

X 3.90 Dafabet

2 1.67 Betano

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)

HNK Gorica

W-D-L 3-0-7 Scored 0.77 Conceded 1.59 xG 1.20 xGA 1.40 Corners 4.2

HNK Rijeka

W-D-L 5-3-2 Scored 1.52 Conceded 0.88 xG 1.64 xGA 1.05 Corners 7.6

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)

HNK Gorica

Rating 1297 xG 0.82 Win 19%

HNK Rijeka

Rating 1531 xG 1.58 Win 55%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result

HNK Gorica

19%

5.60

Draw

25%

3.69

HNK Rijeka

56%

1.64

Total

Over 2.5

50%

1.85

Under 2.5

50%

1.89

Both teams to score

Yes

51%

1.86

49%

1.88

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

HNK Gorica 1 : 1 HNK Rijeka

15.20

X3.74

21.64

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Participant opinions

28 predictions Choose an outcome

1 21% 6

X 78% 22

2 0% 0

Match center

Start 31.08.2026 19:00 UTC

Market 1 16.9% @ 5.60 / X 25.6% @ 3.69 / 2 57.6% @ 1.64

Referee Ante Terzić Season KhNL 2026/2027 KhNK Goritsa

🥊 Humans vs Machines

👥 Community Draw 78%

📐 Math model HNK Rijeka 56%

💹 Market HNK Rijeka 56%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

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Match center

HNK Gorica - HNK Rijeka

HNK Gorica: win 5.00 HNK Gorica: draw 3.50 HNK Rijeka win: 1.57 Obschiy Total goals Over 2.5: 1.90 Obschiy Total goals Under 2.5: 1.90 Individualnyy Total goals HNK Gorica Over 0.5: 1.62 Individualnyy Total goals HNK Gorica Under 0.5: 2.20 Individualnyy Total goals H…

Lineups 11/11 probable starting lineup

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 8 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:0

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 55.6% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.923 / LogLoss 1.415

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 55.6% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.923 / LogLoss 1.415

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

HNK Gorica 19.6% 20.1%

Draw 24.5% 24.3% draw risk

HNK Rijeka 55.9% 55.6% market and model agree

xG - 0.80 : 1.60

1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 20.1% / 24.3% / 55.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,221 / 1,600 Gorica / Rijeka

RD 245 / 293 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 730-1,711 / 1,013-2,186 strength interval

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.60 market consensus · no value · model 55.6%

X 3.63 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 4.87 market consensus · no value · model 20.1%

Double chance

12 1.19 market consensus · no value · model 75.7%

1X 1.98 market consensus · no value · model 44.4%

X2 1.12 market consensus · no value · model 79.9%

Handicap

2 -1 2.04 market consensus · line only

1 +1 1.69 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.84 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.82 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.85 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.79 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Kambi BetMGM	Kambi Unibet	Leon
no	1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.88 53.2%
yes	1.76 56.8%	1.76 56.8%	1.86 53.8%

Double chance

Outcome	Kambi BetMGM	Kambi Unibet
12	1.19 84.0%	1.19 84.0%
1x	1.98 50.5%	1.98 50.5%
x2	1.12 89.3%	1.12 89.3%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	5.50 18.2%
X	2.28 43.9%
	2.18 45.9%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1	1.78 56.2%
Under 1	1.94 51.6%

Match center

4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1

1 Renato Yosipovich

2 Filip Breut

45 Stefan Perich

15 D. Stevanović

34 I. Cvijanović

6 Tom Laku

36 A. Kavelj

8 Yakov Pranich

24 Domagoy Pavichich

25 B. Bogojević

9 P. Mijić

13 Igor Vekich

22 Ante Orech

45 Ante Maystorovich

51 Anel Khusich

34 M. Devetak

26 Tiagu Dantash

6 B. Pavić

19 Samuele Vinyato

10 Toni Fruk

4 Niko Yankovich

18 Deniel Adu-Adzhey

HNK Gorica

Formation 4-2-3-1

Probable starting lineup

1 RY Renato Yosipovich

Renato Yosipovich

2 FB Filip Breut

Filip Breut

45 SP Stefan Perich

Stefan Perich

15 DS D. Stevanović

D. Stevanović

34 IC I. Cvijanović

I. Cvijanović

6 TL Tom Laku

Tom Laku

36 AK A. Kavelj

A. Kavelj

8 YP Yakov Pranich

Yakov Pranich

24 DP Domagoy Pavichich

Domagoy Pavichich

25 BB B. Bogojević

B. Bogojević

9 PM P. Mijić

P. Mijić

HNK Rijeka

Formation 4-2-3-1

Probable starting lineup

13 IV Igor Vekich

Igor Vekich

22 AO Ante Orech

Ante Orech

45 AM Ante Maystorovich

Ante Maystorovich

51 AK Anel Khusich

Anel Khusich

34 MD M. Devetak

M. Devetak

26 TD Tiagu Dantash

Tiagu Dantash

6 BP B. Pavić

B. Pavić

19 SV Samuele Vinyato

Samuele Vinyato

10 TF Toni Fruk

Toni Fruk

4 NY Niko Yankovich

Niko Yankovich

18 DA Deniel Adu-Adzhey

Deniel Adu-Adzhey

HNK Gorica

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

HNK Rijeka

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Formations 4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

SStats Market - Glicko - Form - H2H

Match center

10 Matches 10

11 Goals 12

1.1 Per match 1.2

3 Wins 6

0 Draws 1

7 Losses 3

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-1-8, avg 2.1 gls

2026-05-23 · Goritsa 0:2 Rieka

2026-03-22 · Goritsa 4:0 Rieka

2025-12-21 · Goritsa 0:1 Rieka

2025-10-05 · Goritsa 1:3 Rieka

2025-05-04 · Goritsa 1:2 Rieka

Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 6.2 (Pari) · X 3.8 (Pari) · 2 1.6 (Betcity)

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Pari	6.2	3.8	1.55
Winline	5.2	3.75	1.56
Fonbet	6.2	3.8	1.55
Betcity	5.7	3.8	1.6
Liga Stavok	5.4	3.75	1.57

Source: ruscore · line comparison

HNK Gorica

L L L L L

22.08, 11:30

Slaven Belupo 2:0 KhNK Goritsa

16.08, 14:00

KhNK Goritsa 1:2 Khayduk Split

08.08, 14:00

Lokomotiva Zg 3:1 KhNK Goritsa

01.08, 14:00

KhNK Goritsa 0:2 Osiek

23.07, 11:00

KhNK Goritsa 0:2 Shakhter

0 Wins

0 Draws

5 Losses

1.2 Scored

1.4 Conceded

0 Points

HNK Rijeka

L W L L D

27.08, 13:45

Rieka 1:4 Midtyullann

23.08, 11:30

Rieka 3:2 Istra 1961

20.08, 12:00

Midtyullann 2:0 Rieka

16.08, 11:30

Varazhdin 2:0 Rieka

13.08, 11:00

Ilves 1:1 Rieka

1 Wins

1 Draws

3 Losses

1.8 Scored

1.4 Conceded

4 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head history: HNK Gorica - HNK Rijeka

HNK Gorica

8 matches total

HNK Rijeka

HNK Gorica: 5 (62.5%)

Draws:1 (12.5%)

HNK Rijeka: 2 (25%)

Biggest win Gorica 4:0 (22.03, 10:45) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (4:0, 22.03, 10:45) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (01.03.25, 07:00) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

11 Goals scored 5

5 Goals conceded 11

Match history

Event

Gorica

2:0

Rijeka

Event

Gorica

4:0

Rijeka

Event

Gorica

1:0

Rijeka

Event

Gorica

1:3

Rijeka

Event

Gorica

2:1

Rijeka

Event

Gorica

0:0

Rijeka

Event

Gorica

1:0

Rijeka

Event

Gorica

0:1

Rijeka

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 HNK Gorica

Data 0 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 HNK Rijeka

Matches in history 34

Biggest draw 1:1

Highest-scoring match 3:4

KhNL 32 / 11 / 4 / 17 / 34 / 43

Tovarischeskiy (kluby) 1 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 0 / 0

Cup Croatia 1 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 3

HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka — Football prediction

AI match prediction HNK Gorica - HNK Rijeka August 31, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Model O/U (market-implied)

Statistics and model

Forecast by market

Score prediction

Unlock the full AI analysis

HNK Gorica - HNK Rijeka

Match markets

Both teams to score

Double chance

First Half Winner

Goals Over/Under First Half

Form & head-to-head

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Overall statistics

Match history

More predictions

Frequently asked questions