Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
Cup
Cup Russia
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
30.09.2025 17:30 UTC
Finished

Cup

Russia

Akhmat - FC Orenburg

Russia Football
Akhmat
Akhmat
0 : 1
Finished
FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg

Akhmat take on FC Orenburg on September 30, 2025 in the Cup, Russia.

Recent form (W-D-L): Akhmat 1-0-3, FC Orenburg 2-1-1. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. The bookmaker line makes Akhmat the favourite at about 59%. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Akhmat - FC Orenburg September 30, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Akhmat.

Line favourite market consensus: Akhmat. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.57 / X 4.11 / 2 5.27
  • 1X2 market: Akhmat 59.4% / X 22.8% / FC Orenburg 17.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 55.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.7% 7 books · best price +2.5%
1 60.2%
X 22.5%
2 17.3%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%
Over 2.5 55.3%
Under 2.5 44.7%

Odds source: consensus of 7 books (188Bet, 1xBet, Marathonbet, Pinnacle, SBO, SStats Consensus). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 30.09.2025 17:30 UTC
Market 1 59.5% @ 1.57 / X 22.7% @ 4.11 / 2 17.7% @ 5.27
Match center

Akhmat - FC Orenburg

Form 4/4 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.30 market consensus · line only
X 4.13 market consensus · line only
1 1.58 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.36 market consensus · line only
12 1.22 market consensus · line only
1X 1.15 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.37 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.83 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.65 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.58 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.72 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.13 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.98 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.78 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.59 62.9%
X 4.27 23.4%
5.53 18.1%

Match Winner

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Marathonbet Pinnacle SBO SStats Consensus
1.54 64.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.58 63.3% 1.59 62.9% 1.51 66.2% 1.59 62.9%
X 3.90 25.6% 4.36 22.9% 4.25 23.5% 4.27 23.4% 3.64 27.5% 4.27 23.4%
4.70 21.3% 5.74 17.4% 5.60 17.9% 5.53 18.1% 4.77 21.0% 5.53 18.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Marathonbet Pinnacle Superbet
no 1.90 52.6% 2.00 50.0% 1.98 50.5% 2.05 48.8% 1.95 51.3%
yes 1.84 54.4% 1.74 57.5% 1.74 57.5% 1.80 55.6% 1.76 56.8%

Double chance

Outcome 1xBet Marathonbet Pinnacle SBO SStats Consensus Superbet
draw_away 2.45 40.8% 2.43 41.2% 2.43 41.2% 2.17 46.1% 2.43 41.2% 2.25 44.4%
home_away 1.26 79.4% 1.24 80.7% 1.24 80.7% 1.16 86.2% 1.24 80.7% 1.19 84.0%
home_draw 1.17 85.5% 1.15 87.0% 1.17 85.5% 1.08 92.6% 1.17 85.5% 1.14 87.7%
Match center
Akhmat
L W L L
17.09 17:30 UTC Cup
Akhmat 1:2 ZenitZenit
26.08 17:45 UTC Cup
Akhmat 2:0 RubinRubin
13.08 13:15 UTC Cup
Akhmat 1:2 FC OrenburgFC Orenburg
15.04 15:00 UTC Cup
Akhmat 1:2 LokomotivLokomotiv
1 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.3 Scored
1.5 Conceded
3 Points
FC Orenburg
D L W W
16.09 13:30 UTC Cup
FC Orenburg 0:0 RubinRubin
26.08 15:30 UTC Cup
FC Orenburg 3:5 ZenitZenit
13.08 13:15 UTC Cup
FC Orenburg 2:1 AkhmatAkhmat
23.10 13:30 UTC Cup
FC Orenburg 2:0 Khimki
2 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.5 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAkhmat - FC Orenburg

Akhmat
1 matches total
FC Orenburg
Akhmat: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
FC Orenburg: 1 (100%)
Biggest win FC Orenburg 1:2 (13.08 13:15 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 13.08 13:15 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 1

Match history

13.08 13:15 UTC Cup
Akhmat
1:2
FC Orenburg