Who is the favourite in Hobro vs Aalborg?

By the PropickAI model, Hobro is favoured — about 39% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Hobro vs Aalborg?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Hobro. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

AI verdict

AI pick Hobro win probability ~39% confidence Low best odds 1.16

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Hobro. Full breakdown below.

Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →

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Denmark: First Division

21.08.2026 16:00 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

21.08.2026 16:00 UTC

Finished

Denmark: First Division

Hobro - Aalborg

Football

Stadium DS Arena

Referee J. Bogelund

Capacity 6 600

Hobro

1 : 0

Finished

Aalborg

Hobro take on Aalborg on August 21, 2026 in the Denmark: First Division.

Recent form (W-D-L): Hobro 3-0-2, Aalborg 3-1-1. These sides have met 3 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 39% to win. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Hobro — 39%

1 · Hobro38.7%

X · draw27.7%

2 · Aalborg33.6%

Model estimate: win Hobro 38.7%, draw 27.7%, win Aalborg 33.6%. Model favourite — Hobro.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Hobro - Aalborg August 21, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Hobro.

Line favourite Fonbet: Hobro. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.16 / X 4.90 / 2 2.81
Glicko: Hobro 38.7% / X 27.7% / Aalborg 33.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.6% 3 books

1 39.3%

X 28.1%

2 32.6%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

1. Division

League table

Hobro

#212 ptsGP 54-0-18:5

Aalborg

#67 ptsGP 52-1-25:7

Best price across 14 books

1 2.52 10Bet

X 3.61 Pinnacle

2 2.90 Bet365

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)

Hobro

W-D-L 6-2-2 Scored 1.50 Conceded 1.27 xG 1.49 xGA 1.33

Aalborg

W-D-L 3-4-3 Scored 0.91 Conceded 1.56 xG 1.60 xGA 1.48

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)

Hobro

Rating 1579

Aalborg

Rating 1547

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 1/1

Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result

Hobro

39%

2.34

Draw

28%

4.90

Aalborg

33%

40.00

Handicap

Hobro (0.5)

51%

1.48

Aalborg (0.5)

49%

1.55

Total

Over 9.5

52%

1.75

Under 9.5

48%

1.90

Both teams to score

Yes

42%

5.10

58%

2.17

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Hobro 2 : 1 Aalborg

12.33

X3.44

22.83

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:1/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Claude, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated19.08.2026 02:11 UTC

1 22%

X 31%

2 47% ✓ favourite

Score1:2 Total goals: Over 2.5 BTTS:Yes Bet:X2 and BTTS-Yes

Per AI data Form:WLLDL / LWWWW H2H: 1-1 Injuries:Mathias Haarup (Hobro); Benjamin Tiedemann, Nicklas Helenius (Aalborg) Key:Aalborg high attacking volume vs build-up errors

AI	1	X	2	Score	Total goals	BTTS	Bet
Google AI	22%	31%	47%	1:2	Over 2.5	Yes	X2 and BTTS-Yes

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Participant opinions

8 predictions Choose an outcome

1 62% 5

X 25% 2

2 12% 1

Match center

Stadium DS Arena

Referee J. Bogelund

Start 21.08.2026 16:00 UTC

Market 1 60.6% @ 1.16 / X 14.4% @ 4.90 / 2 25.0% @ 2.81

Weather +18°C solnechno Season 1-y Division 2026/2027 Khobro

Capacity 6,600

🥊 Humans vs Machines

👥 Community Hobro 62%

🤖 7 AI models Aalborg 47%

📐 Math model Hobro 39%

💹 Market Hobro 39%

⚡ Humans and machines disagree

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

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Match center

Hobro - Aalborg

Hobro: win 2.60 Hobro: draw 3.30 Aalborg win: 2.60 Obschiy Total goals Over 2.5: 1.73 Obschiy Total goals Under 2.5: 2.08 Individualnyy Total goals Hobro Over 1.5: 2.20 Individualnyy Total goals Hobro Under 1.5: 1.62 Individualnyy Total goals Aalborg Over 1.5: 2.20…

Lineups 3/1 probable starting lineup

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:0

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 38.7% fact: home hit / ROI 134.0% / Brier 0.565 / LogLoss 0.949

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 38.7% fact: home hit / ROI 134.0% / Brier 0.565 / LogLoss 0.949

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Hobro 39.3% 38.7% market and model agree

Draw 28.1% 27.7% draw risk

Aalborg 32.6% 33.6%

xG - 1.18 : 1.28

1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 38.7% / 27.7% / 33.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,301 / 1,630 Hobro / Aalborg

RD 222 / 198 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 857-1,746 / 1,233-2,027 strength interval

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.80 market consensus · no value · model 33.6%

X 4.90 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.16 Fonbet · no value · model 38.7%

Double chance

12 1.13 Fonbet · no value · model 72.3%

1X 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 66.4%

X2 4.30 Fonbet · weak value +163.5% · model 61.3%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.38 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.70 Fonbet · line only

2 +0.5 1.59 market consensus · line only

2 +1 4.70 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 6.20 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 1.07 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.12 Fonbet · line only

Yes 5.10 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Kambi BetMGM	Kambi Unibet	Leon
no	1.12 89.3%	2.17 46.1%	2.17 46.1%	2.17 46.1%
yes	5.10 19.6%	4.25 23.5%	4.25 23.5%	1.62 61.7%

Double chance

Outcome	Fonbet	Kambi BetMGM	Kambi Unibet
12	1.13 88.5%	1.37 73.0%	1.37 73.0%
1x	1.01 99.0%	1.28 78.1%	1.28 78.1%
x2	4.30 23.3%	1.35 74.1%	1.35 74.1%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	2.88 34.7%
X	2.24 44.6%
	3.26 30.7%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1.5	2.46 40.7%
Under 1.5	1.44 69.4%

Match center

1 Andreas Sondergaard 8 Mikkel Pedersen 27 Lukas Klitten 1 Vinsent Myuller

Hobro

Probable starting lineup

1 AS Andreas Sondergaard

Andreas Sondergaard

8 MP Mikkel Pedersen

Mikkel Pedersen

27 LK Lukas Klitten

Lukas Klitten

Head coach J. Gjesing

Aalborg

Probable starting lineup

1 VM Vinsent Myuller

Vinsent Myuller

Hobro

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Aalborg

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

SStats Market - Glicko - Form - H2H

Match center

10 Matches 10

16 Goals 14

1.6 Per match 1.4

7 Wins 5

0 Draws 2

3 Losses 3

Form & head-to-head

H2H 5-2-2, avg 2.56 gls

2026-08-21 · Khobro IK 2:1 Olborg

2026-05-01 · Khobro IK 1:1 Olborg

2026-04-10 · Khobro IK 0:1 Olborg

2026-03-14 · Khobro IK 1:0 Olborg

2025-08-01 · Khobro IK 1:1 Olborg

Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 2.7 (Winline) · X 3.5 (Betcity) · 2 2.48 (Betcity)

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Pari	2.5	3.45	2.45
Winline	2.7	3.4	2.34
Fonbet	2.5	3.45	2.45
Betcity	2.55	3.5	2.48
Liga Stavok	2.55	3.35	2.47

Source: ruscore · line comparison

Hobro

W W L W L

2026-08-15 1. Division 26/27

Hobro Esbjerg 1:2 Hobro

2026-08-08 1. Division 26/27

Hobro Hobro 1:0 AB Gladsaxe

2026-08-05 DBU Pokalen 26/27

Hobro Hobro 0:4 Vendsyssel FF

2026-08-02 1. Division 26/27

Hobro Vendsyssel FF 1:2 Hobro

2026-07-26 1. Division 26/27

Hobro Hobro 1:2 Aarhus Fremad

3 Wins

0 Draws

2 Losses

1.2 Scored

1.6 Conceded

9 Points

Aalborg

L D W W W

2026-08-14 1. Division 26/27

Aalborg 0:3 Fredericia Aalborg

2026-08-09 1. Division 26/27

Aalborg 1:1 Kolding IF Aalborg

2026-08-04 DBU Pokalen 26/27

Holstebro 1:3 Aalborg Aalborg

2026-07-31 1. Division 26/27

Aarhus Fremad 1:2 Aalborg Aalborg

2026-07-24 1. Division 26/27

Aalborg 1:0 Hillerod Aalborg

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

1.4 Scored

1.2 Conceded

10 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head history: Hobro - Aalborg

Hobro

3 matches total

Aalborg

Hobro: 1 (33.3%)

Draws:1 (33.3%)

Aalborg: 1 (33.4%)

Biggest win Aalborg 0:1 (2026-04-10) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 2026-05-01) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (2026-05-01) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 2

Match history

2026-05-01 1. Division 26/27

Aalborg 1:1 Hobro

2026-04-10 1. Division 26/27

Hobro 0:1 Aalborg

2026-03-14 1. Division 26/27

Hobro 1:0 Aalborg

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Hobro

Data 0 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Aalborg

Matches in history 28

Biggest draw 1:1

Highest-scoring match 6:0

1-y Division 8 / 4 / 2 / 2 / 11 / 9

Tovarischeskiy (kluby) 6 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 5 / 8

Superliga 14 / 1 / 6 / 7 / 7 / 28

Hobro - Aalborg

AI match prediction Hobro - Aalborg August 21, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Statistics and model

AI outcome leader: 1

Forecast by market

Score prediction

AI predictions

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