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27.07.2026 19:30 UTC
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27.07.2026 19:30 UTC
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Ecuador. Premier League
Guayaquil City - Universidad Catolica Quito
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:
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Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Universidad Catolica Quito — 47%
Pure model vs market (2 · Universidad Catolica Quito): model 36% · market 48% Δ −12 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Guayaquil City 25.4%, draw 27.8%, win Universidad Catolica Quito 46.7%. Model favourite — Universidad Catolica Quito.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
2Universidad Catolica Quito (odds3.60)
Score 1:2
confidence 51%
✗ outcome missed
- • Model backs Universidad Katolika Kito: probability 51% vs 28% on the line (odds 3.60)
- • edge over the line +23 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 1:2.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Guayaquil City - Universidad Catolica Quito July 27, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Universidad Catolica Quito.
Strongest: Universidad Catolica Quito - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.71 / X 3.27 / 2 1.91
- 1X2 market: Guayaquil City 24.6% / X 27.9% / Universidad Catolica Quito 47.5%
- Glicko: Guayaquil City 25.4% / X 27.8% / Universidad Catolica Quito 46.7%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 9.9%
1
24.5%
X
27.8%
2
47.6%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1
2.40
↑ 8.00
1X2 X
3.45
↓ 1.09
1X2 2
2.50
↑ 6.30
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Guayaquil City
1
:
1
Universidad Catolica Quito
13.61
X3.22
22.08
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Universidad Catolica Quito 47%
💹 Market
Universidad Catolica Quito 4753%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Guayaquil City - Universidad Catolica Quito
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
Movement
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
0:0
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
away - 46.7% fact: draw
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.804 / LogLoss 1.279
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
away - 46.7% fact: draw
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.804 / LogLoss 1.279
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Guayaquil City
24.6%
25.4%
Draw
28.0%
27.8%
draw risk
Universidad Catolica Quito
47.4%
46.7%
market and model agree
1X2: 15 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
25.4% / 27.8% / 46.7%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,530 / 1,610
Guayaquil City / Universidad Catolica Quito
RD
180 / 156
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,170-1,890 / 1,299-1,922
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
7.70
Fonbet · weak value +259.9% · model 46.7%
X
1.12
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
3.70
market consensus · no value · model 25.4%
Double chance
12
5.00
Fonbet · weak value +260.9% · model 72.2%
1X
1.06
Fonbet · no value · model 53.3%
X2
1.02
Fonbet · no value · model 74.6%
Handicap
2 -0.5
2.01
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.01
Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5
1.24
market consensus · line only
2 0
1.45
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.97
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
1.01
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.01
Fonbet · line only
Yes
1.80
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.70 27.0% | 3.84 26.0% | 4.00 25.0% | 4.00 25.0% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.25 30.8% | |
| X | 3.45 29.0% | 3.53 28.3% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.25 30.8% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.00 33.3% |
| 1.97 50.8% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.80 55.6% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.01 99.0% | 1.91 52.4% |
| yes | 11.00 9.1% | 1.80 55.6% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.29 77.5% | 5.00 20.0% |
| 1x | 1.74 57.5% | 1.06 94.3% |
| x2 | 1.23 81.3% | 1.02 98.0% |
Exact Score
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 8.50 11.8% |
| 0_1 | 6.00 16.7% |
| 0_2 | 8.00 12.5% |
| 0_3 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 0_4 | 34.00 2.9% |
| 0_5 | 76.00 1.3% |
| 1_0 | 8.50 11.8% |
| 1_1 | 5.75 17.4% |
| 1_2 | 7.00 14.3% |
| 1_3 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 1_4 | 29.00 3.5% |
| 1_5 | 71.00 1.4% |
| 2_0 | 15.00 6.7% |
| 2_1 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 2_2 | 12.00 8.3% |
| 2_3 | 23.00 4.4% |
| 2_4 | 46.00 2.2% |
| 2_5 | 101.00 1.0% |
Match center
Form & head-to-head
H2H 0-1-1, avg 2.5 gls
2026-07-27 · Guayakil Siti 0:0 Universidad Katolika Kito
2026-04-04 · Guayakil Siti 1:4 Universidad Katolika Kito
Source: ruscore
Odds · 5 bookmakers
Best price: 1 3.4 (Winline) · X 3.25 (Winline) · 2 2.23 (Winline)
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.15 |
| Winline | 3.4 | 3.25 | 2.23 |
| Fonbet | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.15 |
| Betcity | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.2 |
| Liga Stavok | 3.25 | 3.1 | 2.16 |
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Match stats
0
Cards total
0
0
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
0
Second yellows
0
4
Substitutions
5
Source: ruscore
Guayaquil City
D
W
D
W
L
Guayaquil City
1:1
Leones del Norte
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City
1:0
Manta
Manta
Guayaquil City
1:1
Barselona Guayakil
Barselona Guayakil
Guayaquil City
2:1
Delfin
Delfin
Guayaquil City
0:1
Aukas
Aukas
2
Wins
2
Draws
1
Losses
1.0
Scored
0.8
Conceded
8
Points
Universidad Catolica Quito
W
W
W
L
L
Universidad Catolica Quito
2:1
Barselona Guayakil
Barselona Guayakil
Universidad Catolica Quito
2:0
Deportivo Kuenka
Deportivo Kuenka
Universidad Catolica Quito
1:0
LDU Kito
LDU Kito
Universidad Catolica Quito
0:1
Leones del Norte
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica Quito
2:3
Mushuk Runa
Mushuk Runa
3
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
1.4
Scored
1.0
Conceded
9
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyGuayaquil City - Universidad Catolica Quito
Guayaquil City
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form