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Start
27.07.2026 17:00 UTC
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27.07.2026 17:00 UTC
Finished
Ecuador. Premier League
Mushuc Runa - Libertad Loja
0
:
2
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Mushuc Runa — 57%
Pure model vs market (1 · Mushuc Runa): model 45% · market 57% Δ −12 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Mushuc Runa 56.9%, draw 24.1%, win Libertad Loja 19.0%. Model favourite — Mushuc Runa.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Mushuc Runa (odds1.59)
Score 1:0
confidence 50%
✗ outcome missed
- • Model backs Mushuk Runa: probability 50% vs 63% on the line (odds 1.59)
- • no edge over the line (-13 pp) — informational only
- • Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Mushuc Runa - Libertad Loja July 27, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Mushuc Runa.
Strongest: Mushuc Runa - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.60 / X 3.75 / 2 4.96
- 1X2 market: Mushuc Runa 57.1% / X 24.5% / Libertad Loja 18.5%
- Glicko: Mushuc Runa 56.9% / X 24.1% / Libertad Loja 19.0%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 9.3%
1
57.2%
X
24.4%
2
18.4%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Statistics and model
Liga ProLeague table
Mushuc Runa
LDWLL
Libertad Loja
WWLWD
Best price
across 13 books
1
1.61
Unibet
X
4.40
Betano
2
6.30
Betano
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Mushuc Runa
W-D-L 2-3-5
Scored 1.21
Conceded 1.90
xG 1.12
xGA 1.34
Corners 4.9
Libertad Loja
W-D-L 4-2-4
Scored 1.09
Conceded 1.19
xG 0.95
xGA 1.66
Corners 3.2
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Model form (Glicko)
Mushuc Runa
Rating 1508
Libertad Loja
Rating 1493
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Mushuc Runa
1
:
1
Libertad Loja
11.50
X4.31
25.86
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Mushuc Runa 57%
💹 Market
Mushuc Runa 5707%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Mushuc Runa - Libertad Loja
Form
4/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
0:2
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 56.9% fact: away
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.037 / LogLoss 1.660
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 56.9% fact: away
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.037 / LogLoss 1.660
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Mushuc Runa
57.6%
56.9%
market and model agree
Draw
24.0%
24.1%
draw risk
Libertad Loja
18.4%
19.0%
1X2: 16 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
56.9% / 24.1% / 19.0%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,594 / 1,529
Mushuc Runa / Libertad Loja
RD
188 / 167
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,219-1,969 / 1,194-1,863
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.14
Fonbet · no value · model 19.0%
X
4.40
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.60
market consensus · no value · model 56.9%
Double chance
12
1.16
Fonbet · no value · model 75.9%
1X
4.70
Fonbet · weak value +280.6% · model 81.0%
X2
1.25
Fonbet · no value · model 43.1%
Handicap
2 -1
1.01
Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5
2.34
market consensus · line only
2 +1
3.00
Fonbet · line only
2 0
3.40
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.82
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
1.01
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.17
Fonbet · line only
Yes
4.15
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.62 61.7% | 1.61 62.1% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.55 64.5% | 1.53 65.4% | |
| X | 3.85 26.0% | 3.92 25.5% | 3.70 27.0% | 4.05 24.7% | 3.80 26.3% | 3.25 30.8% |
| 5.20 19.2% | 5.18 19.3% | 5.00 20.0% | 5.60 17.9% | 5.00 20.0% | 4.20 23.8% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.17 85.5% | 1.92 52.1% |
| yes | 4.15 24.1% | 1.78 56.2% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.18 84.8% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.16 86.2% |
| 1x | 1.13 88.5% | 1.15 87.0% | 4.70 21.3% |
| x2 | 2.13 47.0% | 2.20 45.5% | 1.25 80.0% |
Exact Score
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 9.50 10.5% |
| 0_1 | 11.00 9.1% |
| 0_2 | 23.00 4.4% |
| 0_3 | 61.00 1.6% |
| 1_0 | 5.75 17.4% |
| 1_1 | 6.25 16.0% |
| 1_2 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 1_3 | 34.00 2.9% |
| 1_4 | 101.00 1.0% |
| 2_0 | 6.50 15.4% |
| 2_1 | 6.50 15.4% |
| 2_2 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 2_3 | 41.00 2.4% |
| 2_4 | 101.00 1.0% |
| 3_0 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 3_1 | 11.00 9.1% |
| 3_2 | 21.00 4.8% |
| 3_3 | 56.00 1.8% |
Match center
Form & head-to-head
H2H 2-2-3, avg 3.14 gls
2026-07-27 · Mushuk Runa 0:2 Libertad
2026-04-07 · Mushuk Runa 2:2 Libertad
2025-08-09 · Mushuk Runa 1:2 Libertad
2025-04-19 · Mushuk Runa 1:2 Libertad
2024-09-26 · Mushuk Runa 2:1 Libertad
Source: ruscore
Odds · 5 bookmakers
Best price: 1 1.62 (Winline) · X 3.95 (Winline) · 2 5.6 (Winline)
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 1.58 | 3.85 | 5.3 |
| Winline | 1.62 | 3.95 | 5.6 |
| Fonbet | 1.58 | 3.85 | 5.3 |
| Betcity | 1.6 | 3.8 | 5.2 |
| Liga Stavok | 1.58 | 3.75 | 5.2 |
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Match stats
1
Cards total
1
1
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
0
Second yellows
0
4
Substitutions
4
Source: ruscore
Mushuc Runa
D
W
L
W
Mushuc Runa
1:1
Emelek
Emelek
Mushuc Runa
2:1
Orense
Orense
Mushuc Runa
1:2
Makara
Makara
Mushuc Runa
3:2
Universidad Katolika Kito
Universidad Katolika Kito
2
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
1.8
Scored
1.5
Conceded
7
Points
Libertad Loja
W
L
W
D
L
Libertad Loja
1:0
Delfin
Delfin
Libertad Loja
0:1
Barselona Guayakil
Barselona Guayakil
Libertad Loja
1:0
Tekniko Yu.
Tekniko Yu.
Libertad Loja
0:0
LDU Kito
LDU Kito
Libertad Loja
1:3
Leones del Norte
Leones del Norte
2
Wins
1
Draws
2
Losses
0.6
Scored
0.8
Conceded
7
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyMushuc Runa - Libertad Loja
Mushuc Runa
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The Mushuc Runa - Libertad Loja breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form