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Ecuador: Seriya V Standings
Ecuador: Seriya V Standings
01.08.2026 20:30 UTC
Finished

Ecuador: Seriya V Standings

Gualaceo - Independiente Juniors

Football
Gualaceo
Gualaceo
2 : 3
Finished
I
Independiente Juniors

Gualaceo meet Independiente Juniors on August 1, 2026 in the Ecuador: Seriya V Standings.

Recent form (W-D-L): Gualaceo 1-3-1, Independiente Juniors 2-2-1. The market favourite is Gualaceo at roughly 37%. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 37% to win — broadly in line with the market. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Gualaceo37%

Pure model vs market (1 · Gualaceo): model 39% · market 37% Δ +2 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · Gualaceo37.4%
X · draw32.3%
2 · Independiente Juniors30.3%

Model estimate: win Gualaceo 37.4%, draw 32.3%, win Independiente Juniors 30.3%. Model favourite — Gualaceo.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Gualaceo (odds2.13) Score 1:0 confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • Model backs Gualaseo: probability 50% vs 47% on the line (odds 2.13)
  • edge over the line +3 pp — value pick
  • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Gualaceo - Independiente Juniors August 1, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Gualaceo.

Strongest: Gualaceo - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.42 / X 2.76 / 2 2.96
  • 1X2 market: Gualaceo 37.1% / X 32.5% / Independiente Juniors 30.4%
  • Glicko: Gualaceo 37.4% / X 32.3% / Independiente Juniors 30.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 11.3%
1 37.1%
X 32.5%
2 30.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Liga Pro Serie B
League table
Gualaceo
#625 ptsGP 186-7-513:11
Independiente Juniors
#331 ptsGP 188-7-320:11
Best price across 10 books
1 2.57 Pinnacle
X 3.00 Betfair
2 3.30 Marathonbet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Gualaceo
W-D-L 3-4-3 Scored 0.70 Conceded 0.70 xG 1.12 xGA 1.14
Independiente Juniors
W-D-L 4-4-2 Scored 0.90 Conceded 0.30 xG 1.24 xGA 0.97

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Gualaceo
Rating 1496 xG 1.13 Win 37%
Independiente Juniors
Rating 1574 xG 1.06 Win 34%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Gualaceo 0 : 0 Independiente Juniors
12.27
X2.69
23.47

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 20:30 UTC
Market 1 37.1% @ 2.42 / X 32.5% @ 2.76 / 2 30.3% @ 2.96
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Gualaceo 37%
💹 Market Gualaceo 3711%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Gualaceo - Independiente Juniors

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:3
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Gualaceo 37.3% 37.4% market and model agree
Draw 32.8% 32.3% draw risk
Independiente Juniors 30.0% 30.3%
xG - 1.19 : 1.04
1X2: 13 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 37.4% / 32.3% / 30.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,530 / 1,603 Gualaceo / Independiente Juniors
RD 157 / 170 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,216-1,844 / 1,262-1,944 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.05 Fonbet · no value · model 30.3%
X 6.40 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.40 market consensus · no value · model 37.4%
Double chance
12 1.07 Fonbet · no value · model 67.7%
1X 7.00 Fonbet · weak value +387.9% · model 69.7%
X2 1.19 Fonbet · no value · model 62.6%
Handicap
2 0 1.95 Fonbet · line only
1 0 1.75 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 2.45 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.10 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.65 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
2.38 42.0% 2.52 39.7% 2.25 44.4% 2.52 39.7% 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5%
X 2.95 33.9% 2.69 37.2% 2.80 35.7% 2.72 36.8% 3.00 33.3% 2.60 38.5%
2.80 35.7% 3.00 33.3% 3.10 32.3% 2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3% 2.63 38.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 2.10 47.6% 1.60 62.5%
yes 1.65 60.6% 2.19 45.7%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.32 75.8% 1.39 71.9% 1.07 93.5%
1x 1.22 82.0% 1.24 80.7% 7.00 14.3%
x2 1.47 68.0% 1.56 64.1% 1.19 84.0%

Exact Score

Outcome 10Bet
0_0 5.75 17.4%
0_1 5.75 17.4%
0_2 10.00 10.0%
0_3 29.00 3.5%
0_4 76.00 1.3%
1_0 5.25 19.1%
1_1 5.00 20.0%
1_2 9.50 10.5%
1_3 26.00 3.9%
1_4 71.00 1.4%
2_0 8.50 11.8%
2_1 8.50 11.8%
2_2 15.00 6.7%
2_3 41.00 2.4%
2_4 101.00 1.0%
3_0 21.00 4.8%
3_1 21.00 4.8%
3_2 34.00 2.9%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-0-0, avg 1.0 gls
2026-03-21 · Kuenka Khuniors 1:0 Gualaseo
Source: ruscore
Gualaceo
D D L D W
2026-07-29 Copa Ecuador 2026
Gualaceo Gualaceo 1:1 Macara
2026-07-24 Serie B 2026
Gualaceo El Nacional Quito 0:0 Gualaceo
2026-07-18 Serie B 2026
Gualaceo Gualaceo 0:1 22 de Julio
2026-07-11 Serie B 2026
Gualaceo 9 de Octubre 0:0 Gualaceo
2026-07-01 Serie B 2026
Gualaceo Vinotinto 1:2 Gualaceo
1 Wins
3 Draws
1 Losses
0.6 Scored
0.6 Conceded
6 Points
Independiente Juniors
W W D D L
2026-07-23 Serie B 2026
Independiente Juniors 2:0 Vinotinto Independiente Juniors
2026-07-17 Serie B 2026
LDU Portoviejo 0:1 Independiente Juniors Independiente Juniors
2026-07-11 Serie B 2026
Independiente Juniors 0:0 Atletico Rojiblanco Independiente Juniors
2026-07-09 Copa Ecuador 2026
Independiente Juniors 1:1 LDU Quito Independiente Juniors
2026-07-03 Serie B 2026
Deportivo Santo Domingo 1:0 Independiente Juniors Independiente Juniors
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
0.8 Scored
0.4 Conceded
8 Points