Who is the favourite in FC Tokyo vs Parceiro Nagano?

By the PropickAI model, FC Tokyo is favoured — about 86% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for FC Tokyo vs Parceiro Nagano?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to FC Tokyo. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

AI verdict

AI pick FC Tokyo win probability ~86% confidence High

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to FC Tokyo. Full breakdown below.

Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →

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Emperor Cup

26.08.2026 10:00 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

26.08.2026 10:00 UTC

Finished

Emperor Cup

FC Tokyo - Parceiro Nagano

Football

Stadium Ajinomoto Stadium

FC Tokyo

6 : 0

Finished

Parceiro Nagano

FC Tokyo face Parceiro Nagano on August 26, 2026 in the Emperor Cup.

Recent form (W-D-L): FC Tokyo 2-1-2, Parceiro Nagano 3-0-2. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 86% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 FC Tokyo — 86%

1 · FC Tokyo ✓ Pick86.0%

market 89%

X · draw8.0%

market 7%

2 · Parceiro Nagano6.0%

market 4%

Model estimate: win FC Tokyo 86.0%, draw 8.0%, win Parceiro Nagano 6.0%. Model favourite — FC Tokyo.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FC Tokyo - Parceiro Nagano August 26, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Glicko: FC Tokyo 86.0% / X 8.0% / Parceiro Nagano 6.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.6% 4 books

1 ✓ Pick 89.4%

X 7.1%

2 3.5%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Emperor Cup

Best price across 11 books

1 1.05 William Hill

X 15.00 Bet365

2 51.00 William Hill

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)

FC Tokyo

W-D-L 6-3-1 Scored 1.77 Conceded 0.72 xG 1.56 xGA 1.06

Parceiro Nagano

W-D-L 5-1-4 Scored 2.24 Conceded 1.59 xG 0.70 xGA 2.40

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result

FC Tokyo

89%

1.03

Draw

14.50

Parceiro Nagano

33.00

Total

Over 1.5

56%

1.61

Under 1.5

44%

11.50

Both teams to score

Yes

37%

9.50

63%

1.47

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

FC Tokyo 1 : 1 Parceiro Nagano

11.11

X7.80

219.00

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

Playoff draw

Tournament bracket Emperor Cup 2026

Round 1

Src Hiroshima1

Okazaki6

Grulla Morioka0

Sapporo University0

Yamanashi Gakuin0

Tokyo I.U.0

Atletico Suzuka Club4

FC Basara Hyogo2

Reinmeer Aomori0

Akita University0

Wakayama0

AC Numazu6

Ryutsu K1

Criacao Shinjuku2

FC Tokushima1

Kawazoe Club0

Belugarosso Iwami2

Nagasaki International University0

Tochigi2

Urayasu0

Nagano Parceiro2

Fukui1

Gainare T8

Roasso K7

Reilac Shiga2

Japan S.C.1

Tohoku Gakuin University1

Thespa Gunma3

Veroskronos Tsuno3

Kamatamare S1

Giravanz K1

Okinawa SV2

Senshu University2

Uni. of Tsukuba1

Verspah Oita3

Kochi United0

Kanazawa Seiryo University1

Kyoto Sangyo University4

Fukushima U0

Oyama0

Kagoshima Utd2

Renofa Y1

Gifu0

Toyama S0

Ehime0

International Pacific University0

Nara1

FC Osaka4

Round 2

Imabari0

Blaublitz A0

Tosu0

Kataller T0

Montedio0

Fujieda0

Omiya ArdijaA0

Vanraure Hachinohe0

Sapporo0

Ventforet0

Vegalta0

Tochigi City0

Iwaki FC0

Oita0

Jubilo I0

Tegevajaro0

Kyoto Sanga0

Okazaki0

Machida Z0

Grulla Morioka0

Urawa0

Yamanashi Gakuin0

Kashima0

Atletico Suzuka Club0

Shonan0

Reinmeer Aomori0

United Chiba0

AC Numazu0

Yokohama0

Criacao Shinjuku0

Vortis0

FC Tokushima0

Fagiano O0

Belugarosso Iwami0

Frontale0

Tochigi0

Tokyo0

Nagano Parceiro0

Nagoya0

Gainare T0

Gamba0

Reilac Shiga0

Tokyo V0

Thespa Gunma0

Kobe0

Veroskronos Tsuno0

Hiroshima0

Okinawa SV0

Kashiwa0

Senshu University0

Avispa0

Verspah Oita0

Mito H0

Kyoto Sangyo University0

Marinos0

Fukushima U0

Albirex0

Kagoshima Utd0

Cerezo0

Gifu0

V-Varen0

Ehime0

Shimizu0

FC Osaka0

Playoff draw: gismo. For reference.

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Participant opinions

7 predictions Choose an outcome

1 71% 5

X 14% 1

2 14% 1

Match center

Stadium Ajinomoto Stadium

Start 26.08.2026 10:00 UTC

🥊 Humans vs Machines

👥 Community FC Tokyo 71%

📐 Math model FC Tokyo 86%

💹 Market FC Tokyo 89%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

FC Tokyo - Parceiro Nagano

FC Tokyo: win 1.03 FC Tokyo: draw 13.00 Parceiro Nagano win: 27.00 Obschiy Total goals Over 4.5: 2.12 Obschiy Total goals Under 4.5: 1.62 Individualnyy Total goals FC Tokyo Over 3.5: 1.75 Individualnyy Total goals FC Tokyo Under 3.5: 1.97 Individualnyy Total goals Pa…

Lineups 3/0 probable starting lineup

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

Post-match / SStats

Score 6:0

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 86.0% fact: home hit / ROI 3.0% / Brier 0.030 / LogLoss 0.151

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 86.0% fact: home hit / ROI 3.0% / Brier 0.030 / LogLoss 0.151

Glicko-2: public filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 86.0% fact: home hit / ROI 3.0% / Brier 0.030 / LogLoss 0.151

Glicko-2: precision filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 86.0% fact: home hit / ROI 3.0% / Brier 0.030 / LogLoss 0.151

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

FC Tokyo 89.4% 86.0% market and model agree

Draw 7.1% 8.0% draw risk

Parceiro Nagano 3.5% 6.0%

1X2: 5 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 86.0% / 8.0% / 6.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,426 / 1,650 Tokyo / Nagano Parceiro

RD 232 / 179 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 961-1,890 / 1,292-2,008 strength interval

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

X 8.50 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 86.0%

Double chance

12 1.03 Fonbet · no value · model 92.0%

1X 1.03 Fonbet · no value · model 94.0%

X2 9.50 Fonbet · no value · model 14.0%

Handicap

2 -1 3.20 Fonbet · line only

2 0 8.00 Fonbet · line only

1 -1 1.28 Fonbet · line only

1 0 1.04 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.09 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 5.70 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.02 Fonbet · line only

Yes 9.50 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Kambi BetMGM	Kambi Unibet	Leon
no	1.02 98.0%	1.46 68.5%	1.46 68.5%	1.47 68.0%
yes	9.50 10.5%	2.45 40.8%	2.45 40.8%	2.50 40.0%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet	Kambi BetMGM	Kambi Unibet
12	1.01 99.0%	—	1.03 97.1%	1.01 99.0%	1.01 99.0%
1x	—	—	1.03 97.1%	—	1.01 99.0%
x2	7.70 13.0%	9.10 11.0%	9.50 10.5%	7.50 13.3%	7.50 13.3%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	1.33 75.2%
X	3.31 30.2%
	17.70 5.7%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1.5	1.82 55.0%
Under 1.5	1.89 52.9%

Match center

5 Yuto Nagatomo 71 Fuki Yamada 39 Terukhito Nakagava

FC Tokyo

Probable starting lineup

5 YN Yuto Nagatomo

Yuto Nagatomo

71 FY Fuki Yamada

Fuki Yamada

39 TN Terukhito Nakagava

Terukhito Nakagava

Head coach R. Matsuhashi

Parceiro Nagano

FC Tokyo

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Parceiro Nagano

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

SStats Market - Form - H2H - Table

Match center

10 Matches 10

12 Goals 11

1.2 Per match 1.1

4 Wins 7

2 Draws 0

4 Losses 3

FC Tokyo

W D L L W

21.08, 05:30

Tokio 2:0 DZhEF Yunayted

15.08, 05:00

Vissel Kobe 2:2 Tokio

08.08, 05:00

Tokio 1:5 Matida Zelviya

01.08, 05:00

Tokio 0:1 Borussiya Dortmund

20.07, 23:00

Tokio 2:1 Nagoya Grampus

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.4 Scored

1.8 Conceded

7 Points

Parceiro Nagano

W W L W L

22.08, 05:00

Roasso Kumamoto 0:1 Nagano Parseyro

19.08, 05:00

Nagano Parseyro 2:1 Fukui Yunayted

16.08, 04:00

FK Osaka 4:2 Nagano Parseyro

08.08, 04:00

Nagano Parseyro 1:0 Renofa Yamaguti

12.07, 02:00

Nagano Parseyro 1:3 Ivaki FK

3 Wins

0 Draws

2 Losses

1.6 Scored

1.4 Conceded

9 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head history: FC Tokyo - Parceiro Nagano

FC Tokyo

1 matches total

Parceiro Nagano

FC Tokyo: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Parceiro Nagano: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Nagano Parceiro 5:6 (2017-06-21) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 11 goals (5:6, 2017-06-21) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

5 Goals scored 6

6 Goals conceded 5

Match history

2017-06-21 Emperor Cup 2026

Tokyo 5:6 Nagano Parceiro

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 FC Tokyo

Data 0 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Parceiro Nagano

Matches in history 1

Biggest draw 1:1

Highest-scoring match 1:1

Cup Imperatora 1 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 1 / 1

FC Tokyo - Parceiro Nagano

AI match prediction FC Tokyo - Parceiro Nagano August 26, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Statistics and model

Forecast by market

Score prediction

Tournament bracket Emperor Cup 2026

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