England. League Cup. Preliminary round
York City meet Crawley Town on August 3, 2026 in the England. League Cup. Preliminary round.
Recent form (W-D-L): York City 1-1-3, Crawley Town 1-2-2. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 55% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 York City — 55%
Pure model vs market (1 · York City): model 44% · market 56% Δ −12 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win York City 54.7%, draw 24.8%, win Crawley Town 20.5%. Model favourite — York City.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like York City.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.98 50.5% |
| yes | 1.74 57.5% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.27 78.7% | 1.23 81.3% |
| 1x | 1.18 84.8% | 1.15 87.0% |
| x2 | 2.10 47.6% | 2.07 48.3% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.21 45.3% | |
| X | 2.34 42.7% |
| 5.30 18.9% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.70 58.8% |
| Over 1.5 | 2.31 43.3% |
| Under 1 | 2.07 48.3% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.50 66.7% |
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 2.8 | 3.65 | 2.07 |
| Winline | 2.85 | 3.65 | 2.12 |
| Fonbet | 2.8 | 3.65 | 2.07 |
| Betcity | 2.85 | 3.6 | 2.13 |
| Liga Stavok | 2.85 | 3.65 | 2.14 |
York City
Full head-to-head historyYork City - Crawley Town
The York City - Crawley Town breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
