Who is the favourite in Accrington ST vs Grimsby?

By the PropickAI model, draw is favoured — about 52% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Accrington ST vs Grimsby?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to draw. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Accrington ST vs Grimsby?

Live odds for Accrington ST vs Grimsby from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

AI verdict

AI pick Accrington ST win probability ~52% best odds 7.00

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Accrington ST. Full breakdown below.

Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →

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England: Second League

02.09.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction

02.09.2026 18:45 UTC

Finished

England: Second League

Accrington ST vs Grimsby — Football prediction

Football

Referee M. Barlow

Accrington ST

2 : 2

Finished

Grimsby

Accrington host Grimsby in football, in England: Second League, on 2 September 2026. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model makes Accrington the favourite, with a win probability of about 52%. The bookmaker consensus (1 book) implies about 26% for the same outcome. The model puts the chance of a draw at 19%.

There is little recent-form or head-to-head data for this fixture, so the main guide is the PropickAI model and the current market line. On the Glicko scale the two are essentially level. The game is part of England: Second League.

Our model is notably more confident in the favourite than the market. Model confidence in the favourite is low. That is a 26-point gap to the market. The match is close, and the model flags no clear safer edge. Key markers: the model's 52% for Accrington. Below on this page: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Accrington ST — 52%

1 · Accrington ST52.1%

X · draw19.4%

2 · Grimsby28.5%

Model estimate: win Accrington ST 52.1%, draw 19.4%, win Grimsby 28.5%. Model favourite — Accrington ST.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick banker

Double chance — Grimsby or draw 1.09

Model confidence 87% ~91% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Accrington ST - Grimsby September 2, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like draw.

Line favourite market consensus: draw. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 7.00 / X 1.52 / 2 3.85
Glicko: Accrington ST 52.1% / X 19.4% / Grimsby 28.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 10.3% 3 books · best price +137.5%

1 16.5%

X 58.6%

2 24.9%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Model O/U (market-implied)

Total 2.50 2 books

Over 2.50 48.5%

Under 2.50 51.5%

Market-implied probability from the frozen pre-kickoff consensus line — reference, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

League Two

League table

Accrington ST

#221 ptsGP 30-1-24:7

Grimsby

#95 ptsGP 31-2-03:2

Best price across 13 books

1 3.70 BetVictor

X 3.64 Pinnacle

2 2.05 Betfair

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)

Accrington ST

W-D-L 1-3-6 Scored 1.30 Conceded 2.13 xG 1.04 xGA 1.52 Corners 3.7

Grimsby

W-D-L 5-3-2 Scored 1.73 Conceded 0.97 xG 1.44 xGA 1.16 Corners 5.3

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)

Accrington ST

Rating 1378 xG 0.98 Win 26%

Grimsby

Rating 1560 xG 1.39 Win 46%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result

Accrington ST

19%

7.00

Draw

49%

3.61

Grimsby

32%

3.85

Total

Over 0.5

47%

4.70

Under 0.5

53%

2.75

Both teams to score

Yes

54%

1.76

46%

2.04

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

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Match center

Referee M. Barlow

Start 02.09.2026 18:45 UTC

Market 1 13.5% @ 7.00 / X 62.0% @ 1.52 / 2 24.5% @ 3.85

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Accrington ST 52%

💹 Market Draw 59%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

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Match center

Accrington ST - Grimsby

Accrington ST: win 3.50 Accrington ST: draw 3.40 Grimsby win: 1.95 Obschiy Total goals Over 2.5: 1.95 Obschiy Total goals Under 2.5: 1.85 Individualnyy Total goals Accrington ST Over 0.5: 1.44 Individualnyy Total goals Accrington ST Under 0.5: 2.62 Individualnyy tota…

Market 3 model / bookmakers

Post-match / SStats

Score 2:2

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 52.1% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.003 / LogLoss 1.640

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 52.1% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.003 / LogLoss 1.640

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Accrington ST 26.4% 52.1% Glicko contrarian

Draw 26.4% 19.4% draw risk

Grimsby 47.2% 28.5% market favourite

1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 52.1% / 19.4% / 28.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Accrington / Grimsby

RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.13 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 28.5%

X 2.20 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 5.31 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 52.1%

Double chance

12 2.34 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 80.6%

1X 1.21 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 71.5%

X2 1.09 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 47.9%

Handicap

2 -0.5 3.00 market consensus · line only

1 +0.5 1.76 market consensus · line only

1 0.5 1.24 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.40 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 3.52 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.02 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.70 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Kambi BetMGM	Kambi Unibet	Leon
no	2.02 49.5%	2.04 49.0%	1.99 50.3%
yes	1.68 59.5%	1.67 59.9%	1.76 56.8%

Double chance

Outcome	Kambi BetMGM	Kambi Unibet
12	2.28 43.9%	2.40 41.7%
1x	1.19 84.0%	1.23 81.3%
x2	1.11 90.1%	1.06 94.3%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	4.07 24.6%
X	2.26 44.3%
	2.55 39.2%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1	1.78 56.2%
Under 1	1.93 51.8%

Match center

Full head-to-head history: Accrington ST - Grimsby

Accrington ST

0 matches total

Grimsby

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Accrington ST vs Grimsby — Football prediction

AI match prediction Accrington ST - Grimsby September 2, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Model O/U (market-implied)

Statistics and model

Forecast by market

Unlock the full AI analysis

Accrington ST - Grimsby

Match markets

Both teams to score

Double chance

First Half Winner

Goals Over/Under First Half

Match history

Frequently asked questions

Accrington ST vs Grimsby — Football prediction

AI match prediction Accrington ST - Grimsby September 2, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Model O/U (market-implied)

Statistics and model

Forecast by market

Unlock the full AI analysis

Accrington ST - Grimsby

Match markets

Both teams to score

Double chance

First Half Winner

Goals Over/Under First Half

Match history

More predictions

Frequently asked questions