PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
English

AI verdict

AI pick Chesterfield win probability ~52% best odds 1.60

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Chesterfield. Full breakdown below.

Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →
Full Access Go deeper than the free pick Your free pick and probability are below. Full Access adds the full 7-AI consensus, every value-edge pick, math-model probabilities and complete reports for every match.
Get Full Access →
England: Second League
England: Second League
02.09.2026 18:45 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
02.09.2026 18:45 UTC
Not started

England: Second League

Chesterfield vs Gillingham — Football prediction

Football
Referee R. Martin
C
Chesterfield
- : -
Not started
G
Gillingham

Chesterfield face Gillingham in football, in England: Second League, on 2 September 2026. Our Glicko-2 rating model leans to Chesterfield: roughly 52% to win. Sportsbook prices (1 book) put that result at roughly 62%. The model puts the chance of a draw at 19%.

Detailed recent-game data is thin here, so the read rests on the PropickAI model and the bookmaker prices. On the Glicko scale the two are essentially level. The game is part of England: Second League.

Our model is a touch more cautious on the favourite than the market. Model confidence in the favourite is low. That is a 10-point gap to the market. The match is close, and the model flags no clear safer edge. Key markers: the model's 52% for Chesterfield. Below on this page: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Chesterfield — 52%

1 · Chesterfield52.1%
X · draw19.4%
2 · Gillingham28.5%

Model estimate: win Chesterfield 52.1%, draw 19.4%, win Gillingham 28.5%. Model favourite — Chesterfield.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick strong

Double chance — Chesterfield or draw 1.10

Model confidence 83% ~82% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Chesterfield - Gillingham September 2, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Chesterfield. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.60 / X 3.82 / 2 5.70

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 10.2% 3 books · best price +4.6%
1 59.3%
X 24.2%
2 16.5%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Model O/U (market-implied)

Total 2.50 2 books
Over 2.50 48.4%
Under 2.50 51.6%

Market-implied probability from the frozen pre-kickoff consensus line — reference, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

League Two
League table
Chesterfield
#163 ptsGP 31-0-22:3
Gillingham
#212 ptsGP 30-2-11:4
Best price across 13 books
1 1.54 Dafabet
X 4.20 Dafabet
2 6.50 10Bet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Chesterfield
W-D-L 4-3-3 Scored 0.97 Conceded 0.82 xG 1.46 xGA 1.15 Corners 3.8
Gillingham
W-D-L 2-4-4 Scored 0.94 Conceded 1.76 xG 1.12 xGA 1.43 Corners 4.0

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Chesterfield
Rating 1486 xG 1.54 Win 54%
Gillingham
Rating 1403 xG 0.82 Win 20%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Chesterfield
59%
1.60
Draw
24%
3.82
Gillingham
17%
5.70
Total
Over 9.5
51%
1.78
Under 9.5
49%
1.89
Both teams to score
Yes
39%
3.35
No
61%
1.82

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Unlock the full AI analysis

Get the 7-AI consensus, math-model probabilities, value picks and full reports for every match with Full Access.

Get Full Access →
Match center
Referee R. Martin
Start 02.09.2026 18:45 UTC
Market 1 58.8% @ 1.60 / X 24.6% @ 3.82 / 2 16.5% @ 5.70
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Chesterfield 52%
💹 Market Chesterfield 59%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
🏦 Virtual bank $10,000
$10,000Virtual balance

Play free: you start with $10,000 in virtual money. Bet on this match at our odds, then track your profit and climb the global leaderboard. No real money, no sign-up.

My virtual bank & leaderboard →
Match center

Chesterfield - Gillingham

Market 3 model / bookmakers
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Chesterfield 61.7% 52.1% market and model agree
Draw 23.6% 19.4% draw risk
Gillingham 14.7% 28.5%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 52.1% / 19.4% / 28.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Chesterfield / Gillingham
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.53 market consensus · no value · model 28.5%
X 3.77 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.55 market consensus · no value · model 52.1%
Double chance
12 1.36 market consensus · value +9.6% · model 80.6%
1X 1.10 market consensus · no value · model 71.5%
X2 1.68 market consensus · no value · model 47.9%
Handicap
2 +0.5 2.11 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.67 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.65 market consensus · line only
1 -1 2.07 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.93 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.78 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.76 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.88 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet Leon
no 1.73 57.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.82 55.0%
yes 3.35 29.9% 3.35 29.9% 1.93 51.8%

Double chance

Outcome Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet
12 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5%
1x 1.10 90.9% 1.10 90.9%
x2 1.68 59.5% 1.68 59.5%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.23 44.8%
X 2.19 45.7%
5.70 17.5%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.90 52.6%
Under 1 1.80 55.6%

More predictions

Accrington – Grimsby 02.09 Bristol Rovers – Colchester United 02.09 Kryu– Walsall 02.09 Northampton – Crawley Town 02.09 Rochdale – Shrewsbury Town 02.09 Svindon Taun– Port Vale 02.09

Frequently asked questions

What does PropickAI predict for Chesterfield vs Gillingham?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Chesterfield. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Chesterfield vs Gillingham?

Live odds for Chesterfield vs Gillingham from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Chesterfield vs Gillingham start?

September 2, 2026.