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Europe: Champions League - Qualifying

2-y kvalifikatsionnyy raund. 2-y match 28.07.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction

28.07.2026 13:00 UTC 2-y kvalifikatsionnyy raund. 2-y match

Finished

Europe: Champions League - Qualifying

KuPS 🇫🇮 - Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿

Football

Stadium Vyare Arena (Kuopio, Finland), vmestimost: 7890

KuPS 🇫🇮

0 : 2

Finished

Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿 — 39%

Pure model vs market (2 · Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿): model 42% · market 69% Δ −27 pp model estimates below the market

1 · KuPS 🇫🇮33.9%

X · draw27.0%

2 · Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿39.1%

Model estimate: win KuPS 🇫🇮 33.9%, draw 27.0%, win Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿 39.1%. Model favourite — Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿 (odds2.09) Score 0:1 Under 2.5 (odds1.85) Handicap H2 +-0 (odds1.53) confidence 50% ✓ outcome correct

• Model backs Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿: probability 50% vs 48% on the line (odds 2.09)
• edge over the line +2 pp — value pick
• Expected score 0:1
• Total: Under 2.5: model expects a total of ~1 goals
• at line 2.5 (odds 1.85)
• Handicap F2 +0: score forecast 0:1 (diff -1) covers the line (odds 1.53).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction KuPS 🇫🇮 - Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿 July 28, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿.

Line favourite Fonbet: Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.81 / X 12.00 / 2 1.03
Glicko: KuPS 🇫🇮 33.9% / X 27.0% / Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿 39.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 41.0%

1 25.2%

X 5.9%

2 68.9%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 1 3.40 ↓ 2.70

1X2 X 3.45 ↑ 3.50

1X2 2 2.08 ↑ 2.45

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

KuPS 🇫🇮 1 : 1 Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿

12.74

X3.49

22.47

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Participant opinions

647 predictions Choose an outcome

1 40% 107

X 26% 68

2 33% 87

match_qualify match_qualify:w2 1.23 (2)

Double chance 1X 1.56 (44) - 12 1.31 (1)

Total TM 2.5 1.91 (61) - TB 2.5 1.88 (49) - TM 2 2.71 (9)

total_t1_under total_t1_over:1_5 2.48 (33) - total_t1_over:1 1.64 (5) - total_t2_over:1_5 2.28 (5)

Match center

Stadium Vyare Arena (Kuopio, Finland), vmestimost: 7890

Start 28.07.2026 13:00 UTC

🥊 Humans vs Machines

👥 Community KuPS 🇫🇮 40%

📐 Math model Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿 39%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

KuPS 🇫🇮 - Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿

Football, KuPS - Sabakh, 28 iyulya 2026, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matches. Vo skolko nachalo matches KuPS - Sabakh, gde smotret pryamoy efir. Champions League UEFA 2026/2027, 2 qualifying round. 2 match.

Form 3/3 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Line 1 source Stavka.tv

Player opinions LiveResult 110 - Stavka.tv 152 combined layer without duplicates

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement

More needed

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

7/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

yes Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:2

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

KuPS 🇫🇮 33.7% 33.9%

Draw 27.3% 27.0% draw risk

Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿 39.0% 39.1% market and model agree

1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 33.9% / 27.0% / 39.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,500 / 1,666 KuPS 🇫🇮 / Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿

RD 228 / 205 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,044-1,957 / 1,257-2,075 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.03 Fonbet · no value · model 39.1%

X 3.42 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.79 market consensus · no value · model 33.9%

Double chance

12 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 73.0%

1X 1.54 market consensus · no value · model 60.9%

X2 1.03 Fonbet · no value · model 66.1%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.18 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.09 Fonbet · line only

2 +1 1.80 Fonbet · line only

2 0 1.03 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 10.00 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 1.02 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.14 Fonbet · line only

Yes 4.90 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon
no	1.14 87.7%	2.06 48.5%
yes	4.90 20.4%	1.71 58.5%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
12	1.29 77.5%	1.29 77.5%	1.01 99.0%
1x	1.55 64.5%	1.52 65.8%	10.50 9.5%
x2	1.42 70.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.03 97.1%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	3.44 29.1%
X	2.22 45.1%
	2.94 34.0%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1	1.80 55.6%
Under 1	1.95 51.3%

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 0-0-1, avg 1.0 gls

2026-07-21 · KuPS 0:1 Sabakh Masazyr

Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 3.2 (Betcity) · X 3.5 (Betcity) · 2 2.85 (Winline)

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Pari	3.1	3.45	2.2
Winline	2.33	3.3	2.85
Fonbet	3.1	3.45	2.2
Betcity	3.2	3.5	2.15

Source: ruscore · line comparison

KuPS 🇫🇮

L L W

21.07 14:00 UTC Europe: Champions League - Qualifying

KuPS 🇫🇮 0:1 Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿

14.07 13:00 UTC Europe: Champions League - Qualifying

KuPS 🇫🇮 2:3 Vardar (Mak)

05.07 15:00 UTC Europe: Champions League - Qualifying

KuPS 🇫🇮 2:0 Vardar (Mak)

1 Wins

0 Draws

2 Losses

1.3 Scored

1.3 Conceded

3 Points

Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿

W W W

21.07 14:00 UTC Europe: Champions League - Qualifying

Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿 1:0 KuPS 🇫🇮

14.07 15:30 UTC Europe: Champions League - Qualifying

Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿 2:1 Nyu-Seynts 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

05.07 14:00 UTC Europe: Champions League - Qualifying

Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿 2:0 Nyu-Seynts 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

3 Wins

0 Draws

0 Losses

1.7 Scored

0.3 Conceded

9 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyKuPS 🇫🇮 - Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿

KuPS 🇫🇮

1 matches total

Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿

KuPS 🇫🇮: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿 0:1 (21.07 14:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 1 goals (0:1, 21.07 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 0

Match history

21.07 14:00 UTC Europe: Champions League - Qualifying

KuPS 🇫🇮

0:1

Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 KuPS 🇫🇮

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Sabakh Baku 🇦🇿

3 Games 3

1 Wins 3

0 Draws 0

2 Losses 0

4 Scored 5

4 Conceded 1

3 Points 9

0 Attacks 0

0 Dangerous attacks 0

0 Big chances 0

11 Shots on goal 14.33

3.67 Udary v stvor 4.67

3 Games 3

1 Wins 3

0 Draws 0

2 Losses 0

4 Scored 5

4 Conceded 1

KuPS Sabakh 3 Games 3 1 Wins 3 0 Draws 0 2 Losses 0 4 Scored 5 4 Conceded 1 3 Points 9 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 11 Shots on goal 14.33 3.67 Udary v stvor 4.67 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 5.33 Uglovye 6 0.67 Offsaydy 2.67 16 Foly 8 47.33 % vladeniya myachom 64.33 2.33 Warnings 1.67 0 Sendoffs 0.33 Goly Dzhoy-Lens Mikkels Timoteush Pukhach 0:1 53' Dzhoy-Lens Mikkels Aleksey Isaev 0:2 70' Nakazaniya Umarali Rakhmonaliev 60' Petteri Pennanen 62' Sayku Turay 72'