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Europe: Champions League - Qualifying
Europe: Champions League - Qualifying
28.07.2026 15:00 UTC Match prediction
28.07.2026 15:00 UTC
Finished

Europe: Champions League - Qualifying

Lech Poznan - IFK Hassleholm

Football
L
Lech Poznan
2 : 1
Finished
IFK Hassleholm
IFK Hassleholm
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Lech Poznan — 55%

Pure model vs market (1 · Lech Poznan): model 61% · market 55% Δ +6 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Lech Poznan ✓ Pick55.1%
X · draw24.5%
2 · IFK Hassleholm20.4%

Model estimate: win Lech Poznan 55.1%, draw 24.5%, win IFK Hassleholm 20.4%. Model favourite — Lech Poznan.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Lech Poznan (odds3.20) Score 2:0 Under 2.5 (odds2.20) ✗ Handicap H1 +0 (odds1.65) ✓ confidence 67% ✓ outcome correct
  • • liniya na pik P1 2.45→2.95 (udlinilas — rynok dreyfuet vs)
  • • Model backs Lekh 🇵🇱: probability 67% vs 31% on the line (odds 3.20)
  • • edge over the line +36 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 2:0
  • • Total: Under 2.5: model expects a total of ~2 goals
  • • at line 2.5 (odds 2.20)
  • • Handicap F1 +0: score forecast 2:0 (diff +2) covers the line (odds 1.65).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lech Poznan - IFK Hassleholm July 28, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lech Poznan.

Line favourite market consensus: Lech Poznan. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.72 / X 3.80 / 2 4.60
  • Glicko: Lech Poznan 55.1% / X 24.5% / IFK Hassleholm 20.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.2%
1 ✓ Pick 54.7%
X 24.8%
2 20.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 2.45 ↓ 1.04
1X2 X 2.40 ↓ 1.60
1X2 2 3.50 ↑ 4.70

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 28.07.2026 15:00 UTC
Match center

Lech Poznan - IFK Hassleholm

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement
More needed
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 55.1% fact: home hit / ROI 72.0% / Brier 0.303 / LogLoss 0.595
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 55.1% fact: home hit / ROI 72.0% / Brier 0.303 / LogLoss 0.595
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Lech Poznan 54.8% 55.1% market and model agree
Draw 24.8% 24.5% draw risk
IFK Hassleholm 20.4% 20.4%
1X2: 2 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 55.1% / 24.5% / 20.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,928 / 1,604 Lech Poznan / IFK Hassleholm
RD 214 / 199 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,501-2,356 / 1,205-2,002 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.59 market consensus · no value · model 20.4%
X 3.76 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.71 market consensus · no value · model 55.1%
Double chance
12 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 75.5%
1X 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 79.6%
X2 2.05 market consensus · no value · model 44.9%
Handicap
2 +0.5 2.06 market consensus · line only
2 0 3.40 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.71 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.29 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.73 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.04 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.04 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.72 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 2.04 49.0%
yes 1.72 58.1%

Double chance

Outcome Betcity
12 1.24 80.7%
1x 1.17 85.5%
x2 2.05 48.8%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.28 43.9%
X 2.33 42.9%
4.71 21.2%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.65 60.6%
Under 1 2.16 46.3%
Match center
Lech Poznan
W
21.07 15:00 UTC Europe: Champions League - Qualifying
Lech Poznan 4:1 Orkhus 🇩🇰Orkhus 🇩🇰
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
4.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
3 Points
IFK Hassleholm
L
21.07 15:00 UTC Europe: Champions League - Qualifying
IFK Hassleholm 1:4 Lekh 🇵🇱
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
4.0 Conceded
0 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLech Poznan - IFK Hassleholm

Lech Poznan
1 matches total
IFK Hassleholm
Lech Poznan: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
IFK Hassleholm: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Lekh 🇵🇱 4:1 (21.07 15:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 5 goals (4:1, 21.07 15:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

21.07 15:00 UTC Europe: Champions League - Qualifying
Lekh 🇵🇱
4:1
Orkhus 🇩🇰