Who is the favourite in Lille vs PSG?

By the PropickAI model, Lille is favoured — about 56% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Lille vs PSG?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Lille. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Lille vs PSG?

Live odds for Lille vs PSG from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

AI verdict

AI pick PSG win probability ~56% confidence Medium best odds 1.62

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to PSG. Full breakdown below.

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France: First League

28.08.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

28.08.2026 18:45 UTC

Finished

France: First League

Lille vs PSG — Football prediction

Football

Stadium Per Morua

Referee Erik Vattele, Nikolya Dano

Lille

1 : 0

Finished

PSG

Lille take on PSG in football, in France: First League, on 28 August 2026. Our Glicko-2 rating model leans to PSG: roughly 56% to win. The bookmaker consensus (3 books) implies about 58% for the same outcome. The model puts the chance of a draw at 24%.

There is little recent-form data for this fixture, so the read leans first on the ratings. On the Glicko scale it is 1500 for Lille against 1510 for PSG - a gap of 10 points. The game is part of France: First League.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is low. That is a 2-point gap to the market. The favourite's edge is moderate, so a protective market (double chance or draw-no-bet) is steadier than a single outright bet. Key markers: an edge of 10 Glicko rating points, the model's 56% for PSG. Read on for team stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI AI prediction. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 PSG — 56%

1 · Lille19.8%

X · draw23.9%

2 · PSG56.3%

Model estimate: win Lille 19.8%, draw 23.9%, win PSG 56.3%. Model favourite — PSG.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lille - PSG August 28, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lille.

Line favourite Fonbet: Lille. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / X 3.70 / 2 1.62
Glicko: Lille 19.8% / X 23.9% / PSG 56.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.0% 3 books · best price +1134.6%

1 18.3%

X 24.0%

2 57.7%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Model O/U (market-implied)

Total 1.50 3 books

Over 1.50 51.6%

Under 1.50 48.4%

Market-implied probability from the frozen pre-kickoff consensus line — reference, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 1 4.50 ↑ 4.80

1X2 X 3.90 ↓ 3.85

1X2 2 1.75 ↓ 1.73

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result

Lille

19%

5.10

Draw

24%

3.90

PSG

57%

20.00

Total

Over 24.5

51%

1.76

Under 24.5

49%

1.84

Both teams to score

Yes

34%

7.00

66%

2.02

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

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Participant opinions

1003 predictions Choose an outcome

1 4% 48

X 15% 159

2 79% 796

Match center

Stadium Per Morua

Start 28.08.2026 18:45 UTC

Market 1 52.7% @ 1.01 / X 14.4% @ 3.70 / 2 32.9% @ 1.62

Referee Erik Vattele, Nikolya Dano

Weather +19°C solnechno

Broadcasts Setanta Qazaqstan, MEGOGO, Setanta Sports 1 Georgia Lill

🥊 Humans vs Machines

👥 Community PSG 79%

📐 Math model PSG 56%

💹 Market PSG 58%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

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Match center

Lille - PSG

Lineups 11/11 probable starting lineup

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 8 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:0

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 56.3% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.016 / LogLoss 1.618

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 56.3% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.016 / LogLoss 1.618

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Lille 18.3% 19.8%

Draw 24.0% 23.9% draw risk

PSG 57.7% 56.3% market and model agree

1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 19.8% / 23.9% / 56.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,500 / 1,510 Lille / PSG

RD 350 / 241 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 1,029-1,992 strength interval

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.62 market consensus · no value · model 56.3%

X 3.70 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 19.8%

Double chance

12 1.28 Fonbet · no value · model 76.1%

1X 1.03 Fonbet · no value · model 43.7%

X2 1.15 market consensus · no value · model 80.2%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.57 market consensus · line only

2 +1 6.90 Fonbet · line only

2 0 9.50 Fonbet · line only

1 -1 1.01 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 4.40 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 1.19 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.20 Fonbet · line only

Yes 3.95 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Kambi BetMGM	Kambi Unibet
no	1.20 83.3%	2.02 49.5%	2.02 49.5%
yes	3.95 25.3%	7.00 14.3%	7.00 14.3%

Double chance

Outcome	Fonbet	Kambi BetMGM	Kambi Unibet
12	1.28 78.1%	1.24 80.7%	1.24 80.7%
1x	1.03 97.1%	2.23 44.8%	2.23 44.8%
x2	13.00 7.7%	1.15 87.0%	1.15 87.0%

Handicap

Outcome	Fonbet
	1.05 95.2%
	1.01 99.0%
	1.08 92.6%
	1.01 99.0%
	1.09 91.7%
	3.75 26.7%
	11.50 8.7%
	6.90 14.5%
	12.00 8.3%
	6.00 16.7%
	6.80 14.7%
	7.20 13.9%
	11.50 8.7%
	11.00 9.1%
	5.60 17.9%
	1.23 81.3%
	1.01 99.0%
	9.50 10.5%

Total

Outcome	Fonbet
Over 0.5	1.04 96.2%
Over 1	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.5	2.30 43.5%
Over 2	6.30 15.9%
Over 2.5	4.40 22.7%
Over 3	6.90 14.5%
Over 3.5	15.00 6.7%
Over 4	10.50 9.5%
Over 4.5	11.00 9.1%
Over 5.5	8.50 11.8%
Under 0.5	7.80 12.8%
Under 1	8.50 11.8%
Under 1.5	1.62 61.7%
Under 2	1.07 93.5%
Under 2.5	1.19 84.0%
Under 3	1.05 95.2%
Under 3.5	1.01 99.0%
Under 4	1.02 98.0%

Match center

4-2-3-1 4-3-3

1 Berke Ozer

3 Natan Ngoy

4 Aleksandro Ribeyro

15 Romen Perro

22 Tyago Santos

6 Nabil Bentaleb

8 Etan Mbappe

10 Khakon Arnar Kharaldsson

21 Benzhamen Andre

27 Felish Korreya

9 Olive Zhiru

39 Matvey Safonov

2 Ashraf Khakimi

4 Lukas Beraldo

5 Markinos

51 Vilyan Pacho

8 Fabian Ruis

17 Vitinya

33 Varren Zair-Emri

9 Ferran Torres

11 Manes Akliush

14 Dezire Due

Lille

Formation 4-2-3-1

Probable starting lineup

1 BO Berke Ozer

Berke Ozer

3 NN Natan Ngoy

Natan Ngoy

4 AR Aleksandro Ribeyro

Aleksandro Ribeyro

15 RP Romen Perro

Romen Perro

22 TS Tyago Santos

Tyago Santos

6 NB Nabil Bentaleb

Nabil Bentaleb

8 EM Etan Mbappe

Etan Mbappe

10 KA Khakon Arnar Kharaldsson

Khakon Arnar Kharaldsson

21 BA Benzhamen Andre

Benzhamen Andre

27 FK Felish Korreya

Felish Korreya

9 OZ Olive Zhiru

Olive Zhiru

Head coach Davide Anchelotti

PSG

Formation 4-3-3

Probable starting lineup

39 MS Matvey Safonov

Matvey Safonov

2 AK Ashraf Khakimi

Ashraf Khakimi

4 LB Lukas Beraldo

Lukas Beraldo

5 M Markinos

Markinos

51 VP Vilyan Pacho

Vilyan Pacho

8 FR Fabian Ruis

Fabian Ruis

17 V Vitinya

Vitinya

33 VZ Varren Zair-Emri

Varren Zair-Emri

9 FT Ferran Torres

Ferran Torres

11 MA Manes Akliush

Manes Akliush

14 DD Dezire Due

Dezire Due

Head coach Luis Enrike

Lille

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

PSG

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Formations 4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3

SStats Market - Form - H2H - Bookmakers

Match center

10 Matches 10

18 Goals 11

1.8 Per match 1.1

5 Wins 4

3 Draws 3

2 Losses 3

Form & head-to-head

H2H 0-3-6, avg 4.33 gls

2026-08-28 · Lill 2:2 PSZh

2026-01-16 · Lill 0:3 PSZh

2025-10-05 · Lill 1:1 PSZh

2025-03-01 · Lill 1:4 PSZh

2024-09-01 · Lill 1:3 PSZh

Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 4.5 (Pari) · X 4 (Winline) · 2 1.93 (Winline)

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Pari	4.5	3.9	1.75
Winline	3.55	4	1.93
Fonbet	4.5	3.9	1.75
Betcity	4.2	3.9	1.81

Source: ruscore · line comparison

Match stats

29% Ball possession 71%

9 Vsego udarov 18

4 Shots on target 4

4 Shots off target 14

15 Udary ot vorot 8

1 Blokirovannye udary 0

5 Shtrafnye 10

0 Corners 5

5 Offsides 0

13 Auty 20

2 Saves 2

11 Fouls 7

2 Cards total 1

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

0 Second yellows 0

0 Travmy 0

4 Substitutions 5

Source: ruscore

Lille

W D W L W

2026-08-23 Ligue 1 26/27

Lille Angers 0:2 Lille

2026-08-15 Club Friendly Games 2026

Lille Everton 1:1 Lille

2026-08-01 Club Friendly Games 2026

Lille Leuven 3:6 Lille

2026-07-25 Club Friendly Games 2026

Lille Union Saint-Gilloise 2:1 Lille

2026-07-18 Club Friendly Games 2026

Lille Lille 3:0 La Louviere

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

2.6 Scored

1.2 Conceded

10 Points

PSG

D L W D L

2026-08-23 Ligue 1 26/27

Rennais 2:2 PSG PSG

2026-08-16 Trophee des Champions 2026

Lens 1:0 PSG PSG

2026-08-12 UEFA Super Cup 2026

PSG 2:1 Aston Villa PSG

2026-08-08 Club Friendly Games 2026

PSG 1:1 Manchester United PSG

2026-08-05 Club Friendly Games 2026

Mallorca 3:0 PSG PSG

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.6 Conceded

5 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head history: Lille - PSG

Lille

8 matches total

PSG

Lille: 4 (50%)

Draws:2 (25%)

PSG: 2 (25%)

Biggest win PSG 1:7 (21.08.22, 13:45) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 8 goals (1:7, 21.08.22, 13:45) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (05.10.25, 13:45) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

18 Goals scored 17

17 Goals conceded 18

Match history

Event

Lille

3:0

PSG

Event

Lille

1:1

PSG

Event

Lille

4:1

PSG

Event

Lille

1:3

PSG

Event

Lille

3:1

PSG

Event

Lille

1:1

PSG

Event

Lille

4:3

PSG

Event

Lille

1:7

PSG

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Lille

Data 0 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 PSG

Matches in history 106

Biggest draw 2:2

Highest-scoring match 4:5

Liga 1 / 98 / 30 / 27 / 41 / 107

145 Super Cup 1 / 1 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 0

Cup France 3 / 1 / 0 / 2 / 2 / 5

Cup ligi 3 / 0 / 0 / 3 / 2 / 6

Liga 2 / 1 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 2

Lille vs PSG — Football prediction

AI match prediction Lille - PSG August 28, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Model O/U (market-implied)

Line movement

Forecast by market

Unlock the full AI analysis

Lille - PSG

Match markets

Both teams to score

Double chance

Handicap

Total

Form & head-to-head

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Match stats

Overall statistics

Match history

More predictions

Frequently asked questions